2009 Week sixteen

Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 16:

Game: Chargers (12-3) @ Titans (7-8)
Predicted score: Chargers 21, Titans 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Titans by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Chargers 42, Titans 17
Actual winner: Chargers by 25
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right

I was surprised to see this predicted as a tie, as I expected the Chargers to crush the Titans (as they did). Still, apparently Vegas was also confused since it had the Titans favored.

Game: Bills (5-9) @ Falcons (7-7)
Predicted score: Bills 16, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 5
Confidence of victory: 66.1%
Favorite: Falcons by 9
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 61.2%

A game that probably means nothing for the post-season.

Game: Chiefs (3-11) @ Bengals (9-5)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Bengals 24
Predicted winner: Bengals by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.3%
Favorite: Bengals by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 65.7%

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bengals cover here, but historically, going with the underdog is a safer bet.

Game: Raiders (5-9) @ Browns (3-11)
Predicted score: Raiders 17, Browns 20
Predicted winner: Browns by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Browns by 3
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 43.8%

The only people who care are Browns fans who were embroiled in a bitter Frye vs Anderson argument a year or two ago. And not even them.

Game: Seahawks (5-9) @ Packers (9-5)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Packers 24
Predicted winner: Packers by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Packers by 14
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 67.7%

I suspect the Packers will come out and crush the Seahawks, and I suspect they might even cover. Still, a 14 points spread is pretty significant.

Game: Texans (7-7) @ Dolphins (7-7)
Predicted score: Texans 20, Dolphins 23
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Dolphins by 1.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 58.0%

Interesting AFC playoff game here. Pretty much, the 7-7 teams that win out have a shot, but any loss will likely doom you. The Dolphins winning will help the Steelers (since the Steelers need to beat them next week to stay alive).

Game: Panthers (6-8) @ Giants (8-6)
Predicted score: Panthers 17, Giants 23
Predicted winner: Giants by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.6%
Favorite: Giants by 8
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 56.0%

This is one where I'd bet on the Giants.

Game: Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots (9-5)
Predicted score: Jaguars 16, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Patriots by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 57.3%

I have to root for the Patriots to deal a loss to the Jaguars to help out the Steelers.

Game: Buccaneers (2-12) @ Saints (13-1)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 16, Saints 27
Predicted winner: Saints by 11
Confidence of victory: 78.8%
Favorite: Saints by 14
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 55.5%

The Saints will probably come out blazing to avenge the loss, but a smarter play is to leave the starters in for a half and then evaluate your backups.

Game: Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles (10-4)
Predicted score: Broncos 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Eagles by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 58.2%

Goooooo Eagles! A Broncos loss here would be a huge benefit to both the Steelers and the Ravens, as they both have tiebreakers over the Broncos.

Game: Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 54.6%

This is almost a playoff game for both teams, and I hope they play like it. Both secondaries are in really bad shape, but I think the Steelers have a better offense. Predictabot disagrees, giving the Ravens a significant nod on both offense and defense. However, factoring in everything, and the home field advantage, it's too close to call.

Game: Rams (1-13) @ Cardinals (9-5)
Predicted score: Rams 14, Cardinals 24
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.9%
Favorite: Cardinals by 15
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 61.3%

Another game that could go either way, but historically when the spread is real high, the underdog is usually a safer bet.

Game: Lions (2-12) @ 49ers (6-8)
Predicted score: Lions 16, 49ers 24
Predicted winner: 49ers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.3%
Favorite: 49ers by 14
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 65.7%

Sorry, no one cares.

Game: Jets (7-7) @ Colts (14-0)
Predicted score: Jets 14, Colts 21
Predicted winner: Colts by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Colts by 4
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 56.4%

The Jets draw a tough ending to try to keep their hopes alive, but unless the Colts really don't care about going undefeated (and I think they do), I see them trying to win out.

Game: Cowboys (9-5) @ Redskins (4-10)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Redskins 17
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Cowboys by 7
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 69.7%

My interest in the Redskins dropped now that I am free to play Packers in my fantasy leagues again. I can return to my ignorant state of not knowing or caring how Jason Campbell and Fred Davis are doing.

Game: Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Bears 20
Predicted winner: Vikings by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 67.6%

The Vikings have been the target of a lot of talk this week. I think it could be interesting how they respond. Personally, I think Favre is gonna go nuts and throw for four touchdowns.

Correct bet predictions: 1-0