Predicted scores for 2009 week 8:
DEN 19
BAL 14 (-3.5)
I think Denver will likely cover here, but I won't mind if the Ravens soften them up for the Steelers visit next week.
HOU 16 (-3.5)
BUF 20
Battle of the forgettables...something tells me the Texans will pull this one out, though.
CLE 13
CHI 23 (-13.5)
Just about anyone but Chicago would be picked to cover the spread. The Browns woes continue.
SEA 17
DAL 20 (-9.5)
Hmm, Predictabot thinks it will be closer than the bookies. Does Predictabot know about Miles Austin?
STL 16
DET 31 (-4)
A little surprising here, except that the Rams are absolutely awful, whereas the Lions are merely bad.
MIN 19
GNB 24 (-3)
A little revenge for the Green and Yellow when Favre returns home? I could easily see the Vikings slipping a little now, as they've "broken the seal" on the loss column. It depends if Jared Allen plays like he did over the last month, or just how he played against the Steelers, I think.
SFO 10
IND 23 (-12)
No arguments here. Even Alex Smith can't help when it's the Colts, who are quietly playing a very effective year.
MIA 10
NYJ 17 (-3)
Hard to say which version of the Jets will show up. Miami lost a heartbreaker last week. How will the Jets solid defense do with the wildcat?
OAK 13
SDG 27 (-17)
Works for me. Next.
JAC 28
TEN 24 (-3)
I bet someone thought this would be a premier matchup.
CAR 9
ARI 27 (-9.5)
Two teams going in opposite directions.
NYG 23
PHI 21 (-2)
Hmm, this could be an interesting one. If the Giants lose a second game there could be concern brewing, but the Eagles just don't seem as dangerous to me as they usually do.
ATL 17
NOR 28 (-10)
Mmm..delicious mid-season matchup. I think this could go either way, as I don't know how long the Saints can keep it up, but it should be a good one.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
2009 Week seven Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
The Steelers are still doing poorly overall compared with last year, even though their record is a solid 5-2. Historically, 72% of 5-2 teams make the playoffs. Considering that a 1-2 record has only led to a playoff appearance 22% of the time, they've bounced back pretty well.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | Saints | 6 | 0 | 4.7 | 17.9 | 1.5 | 19.4 |
| 84 | Broncos | 6 | 0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 9.2 |
| 78 | Patriots | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 13.1 |
| 76 | Colts | 6 | 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 10.2 |
| 73 | Bengals | 5 | 2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 7.5 |
| 66 | Jets | 4 | 3 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 7.3 | 6.0 |
| 65 | Falcons | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| 65 | Giants | 5 | 1 | 3.0 | 6.8 | -0.3 | 6.5 |
| 64 | Vikings | 6 | 1 | 3.0 | 6.1 | -1.6 | 4.5 |
| 63 | Cardinals | 3 | 2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 7.4 |
| 61 | Cowboys | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 5.2 |
| 59 | Steelers | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | -1.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 59 | Packers | 4 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 4.1 |
| 58 | Ravens | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 0.2 | 6.5 |
| 57 | Dolphins | 2 | 4 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 6.8 |
| 52 | 49ers | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 49 | Seahawks | 2 | 4 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 49 | Bears | 3 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 49 | Eagles | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 |
| 49 | Chargers | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 5.6 | -3.4 | 2.1 |
| 46 | Texans | 4 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -3.7 | -1.9 |
| 43 | Bills | 3 | 4 | 0.1 | -5.9 | 2.2 | -3.6 |
| 35 | Jaguars | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | -2.5 | -5.1 | -7.6 |
| 32 | Lions | 1 | 5 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -5.3 | -6.8 |
| 30 | Panthers | 2 | 4 | -0.5 | -4.9 | -4.0 | -8.9 |
| 29 | Browns | 1 | 6 | -0.7 | -7.7 | -1.3 | -9.1 |
| 27 | Raiders | 2 | 5 | -0.3 | -10.8 | -1.5 | -12.3 |
| 24 | Redskins | 2 | 4 | -1.7 | -13.6 | 0.6 | -12.9 |
| 23 | Chiefs | 1 | 6 | -1.6 | -5.9 | -2.9 | -8.8 |
| 11 | Buccaneers | 0 | 7 | -2.6 | -5.3 | -6.6 | -12.0 |
| 11 | Titans | 0 | 6 | -2.0 | -4.8 | -9.5 | -14.3 |
| 7 | Rams | 0 | 7 | -2.1 | -9.9 | -7.1 | -17.0 |
Notes for the week:
- The Saints lifted their overall "AvgRate" to 86 from 85. The most notable stat here is the 17.9 for their AvgOff. This means they are averaging scoring nearly 18 more points than their opponents have averaged allowing in the rest of their games. This is the highest value for this statistic *ever* in the 39 years worth of data.
- In an interesting coincidence, the -13.6 AvgOff for the Redskins is the *lowest* value for this statistic in history. To have both of those the same week is impressive.
- The Colts slid down a slot with the Patriots victory.
- The Bengals make their first appearance in the top five since at least 2005.
- The Steelers win definitely helped them, moving them up from a 50 rating to a 59. They're still the worst-rated 5-2 team.
- The Niners continue to tumble, going down to a very average 52 rating.
- We are down to "only" three unbeaten teams and 3 winless teams, but it's still unprecedented at this point in the season. Parity?
The Steelers are still doing poorly overall compared with last year, even though their record is a solid 5-2. Historically, 72% of 5-2 teams make the playoffs. Considering that a 1-2 record has only led to a playoff appearance 22% of the time, they've bounced back pretty well.
2009 Week seven prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 7:
CHI 17
CIN 19 (-1.5)
This ended up a 45-10 rout by the Bengals, but technically, both predictions were correct.
GNB 21 (-7)
CLE 13
I said I thought the Packers would cover easily, which they did, winning 31-3. Both predictions correct.
SFO 30
HOU 21 (-3)
This went the other way, with the Texans winning 24-21. Both predictions were wrong.
SDG 24 (-4.5)
KAN 24
Another game where the system had a strange choice. I would have picked San Diego, and they did win in a 37-7 blowout. This counts as no prediction for the winner, and incorrect against the spread.
MIN 24
PIT 20 (-4.5)
The Steelers won this 27-17, and I'm always happen to have Predictabot be wrong in a case like this.
IND 34 (-13)
STL 3
A blowout was finally called correctly, as this ended up 42-6 Colts.
TAM 7
NWE 34 (-14.5)
Another blowout, and the closest prediction of the week, as the final was 35-7 Patriots.
BUF 19
CAR 17 (-7.5)
This was a correct upset call, as the Bills won 20-9.
NYJ 14 (-6.5)
OAK 3
I said I thought the Jets would win but not cover. 38-0 later, at least Predictabot was right.
ATL 24
DAL 19 (-4)
Dallas came out on top, 37-21, for a pair of incorrect predictions.
NOR 30 (-6.5)
MIA 24
Well, Predictabot thought there might be trouble here, but the Saints defense managed to get enough points to beat the spread. They won 46-34, so the predictions are split.
ARI 20
NYG 24 (-7)
The Cardinals won this 24-17, so another pair of split predictions.
PHI 19 (-7)
WAS 9
The predicted margin of victory barely topped the point spread, but the final did end up 27-17 Eagles, so two more good predictions.
Before this week it was 57-28 (67%) picking winners, and 52-36 (59%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 65-32 (67%) picking winners and 60-41 (59%) against the spread all year. so it has been staying pretty consistent.
CHI 17
CIN 19 (-1.5)
This ended up a 45-10 rout by the Bengals, but technically, both predictions were correct.
GNB 21 (-7)
CLE 13
I said I thought the Packers would cover easily, which they did, winning 31-3. Both predictions correct.
SFO 30
HOU 21 (-3)
This went the other way, with the Texans winning 24-21. Both predictions were wrong.
SDG 24 (-4.5)
KAN 24
Another game where the system had a strange choice. I would have picked San Diego, and they did win in a 37-7 blowout. This counts as no prediction for the winner, and incorrect against the spread.
MIN 24
PIT 20 (-4.5)
The Steelers won this 27-17, and I'm always happen to have Predictabot be wrong in a case like this.
IND 34 (-13)
STL 3
A blowout was finally called correctly, as this ended up 42-6 Colts.
TAM 7
NWE 34 (-14.5)
Another blowout, and the closest prediction of the week, as the final was 35-7 Patriots.
BUF 19
CAR 17 (-7.5)
This was a correct upset call, as the Bills won 20-9.
NYJ 14 (-6.5)
OAK 3
I said I thought the Jets would win but not cover. 38-0 later, at least Predictabot was right.
ATL 24
DAL 19 (-4)
Dallas came out on top, 37-21, for a pair of incorrect predictions.
NOR 30 (-6.5)
MIA 24
Well, Predictabot thought there might be trouble here, but the Saints defense managed to get enough points to beat the spread. They won 46-34, so the predictions are split.
ARI 20
NYG 24 (-7)
The Cardinals won this 24-17, so another pair of split predictions.
PHI 19 (-7)
WAS 9
The predicted margin of victory barely topped the point spread, but the final did end up 27-17 Eagles, so two more good predictions.
Before this week it was 57-28 (67%) picking winners, and 52-36 (59%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 65-32 (67%) picking winners and 60-41 (59%) against the spread all year. so it has been staying pretty consistent.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
2009 Week seven
Predicted scores for 2009 week 7:
CHI 17
CIN 19 (-1.5)
This is a game I hope the system is wrong on, as I'd love for the Bengals to drop a game, plus losing to the Bears would eliminate a tiebreaker over the Steelers. These two teams are neck and neck in the ratings, so the nod goes to the Bengals with home field advantage, which, since 1970, has been 2.91 points.
GNB 21 (-7)
CLE 13
This is a bit of a surprise. I'd have picked the Packers to cover this pretty easily, but then I've had an emotional bias in favor of the Packers all year.
SFO 30
HOU 21 (-3)
San Francisco needs this to keep up with the Cardinals, who are on the rise. Things were looking really sharp for the Niners, but the recent dropoff has them in trouble, I think. The Texans are pretty inept in general, but Schaub has been putting up a lot of points through the air.
SDG 24 (-4.5)
KAN 24
A surprise here, as Predictabot calls it...too close to call! I'd personally have to go with the Chargers here. The Chiefs have shown some signs of life, but winning two in a row seems overly ambitious.
MIN 24
PIT 20 (-4.5)
Ugh. Well, looking at the ratings, it's not hard to see this at all. Frankly, I could imagine the Vikings predicted by more, as the Steelers opponents have been pretty weak. However, for a 6-0 team, the Vikings are not dominating. Just winning.
IND 34 (-13)
STL 3
No argument here. The Colts are rested and doing great, and the Rams are hapless.
TAM 7
NWE 34 (-14.5)
No real "home" team here, since the game is in London. However, the Pats don't need home field advantage to wipe the floor with the bottomdwelling Bucs. Too bad that London won't get to see a good game.
BUF 19
CAR 17 (-7.5)
Predictabot doesn't know about injuries, which is probably why Buffalo is picked to win. However, the Bills did manage to take out the Jets with a backup QB, so who knows...
NYJ 14 (-6.5)
OAK 3
This is a tricky matchup. Can the Raiders build on their upset of the Eagles? Will the Jets continue to fade as Sanchez struggles? Personally, I think the Jets will win, but not cover the spread.
ATL 24
DAL 19 (-4)
This seems like a reasonable prediction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go the other way either.
NOR 30 (-6.5)
MIA 24
Despite New Orleans being on top, they aren't predicted here to beat the spread. They've won every game by at least two touchdowns, and Miami ain't nothing special, so I have to disagree with the Robot.
ARI 20
NYG 24 (-7)
Arizona has been playing better, but I expect the Giants to bounce back. I think this is a fair prediction, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Giants cover, since the Cardinals sometimes forget to show up.
PHI 19 (-7)
WAS 9
This was probably expected to be a thrilling divisional matchup for Monday night. Given what we've been seeing I might expect this to be a 3-0 victory for the Eagles.
CHI 17
CIN 19 (-1.5)
This is a game I hope the system is wrong on, as I'd love for the Bengals to drop a game, plus losing to the Bears would eliminate a tiebreaker over the Steelers. These two teams are neck and neck in the ratings, so the nod goes to the Bengals with home field advantage, which, since 1970, has been 2.91 points.
GNB 21 (-7)
CLE 13
This is a bit of a surprise. I'd have picked the Packers to cover this pretty easily, but then I've had an emotional bias in favor of the Packers all year.
SFO 30
HOU 21 (-3)
San Francisco needs this to keep up with the Cardinals, who are on the rise. Things were looking really sharp for the Niners, but the recent dropoff has them in trouble, I think. The Texans are pretty inept in general, but Schaub has been putting up a lot of points through the air.
SDG 24 (-4.5)
KAN 24
A surprise here, as Predictabot calls it...too close to call! I'd personally have to go with the Chargers here. The Chiefs have shown some signs of life, but winning two in a row seems overly ambitious.
MIN 24
PIT 20 (-4.5)
Ugh. Well, looking at the ratings, it's not hard to see this at all. Frankly, I could imagine the Vikings predicted by more, as the Steelers opponents have been pretty weak. However, for a 6-0 team, the Vikings are not dominating. Just winning.
IND 34 (-13)
STL 3
No argument here. The Colts are rested and doing great, and the Rams are hapless.
TAM 7
NWE 34 (-14.5)
No real "home" team here, since the game is in London. However, the Pats don't need home field advantage to wipe the floor with the bottomdwelling Bucs. Too bad that London won't get to see a good game.
BUF 19
CAR 17 (-7.5)
Predictabot doesn't know about injuries, which is probably why Buffalo is picked to win. However, the Bills did manage to take out the Jets with a backup QB, so who knows...
NYJ 14 (-6.5)
OAK 3
This is a tricky matchup. Can the Raiders build on their upset of the Eagles? Will the Jets continue to fade as Sanchez struggles? Personally, I think the Jets will win, but not cover the spread.
ATL 24
DAL 19 (-4)
This seems like a reasonable prediction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go the other way either.
NOR 30 (-6.5)
MIA 24
Despite New Orleans being on top, they aren't predicted here to beat the spread. They've won every game by at least two touchdowns, and Miami ain't nothing special, so I have to disagree with the Robot.
ARI 20
NYG 24 (-7)
Arizona has been playing better, but I expect the Giants to bounce back. I think this is a fair prediction, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Giants cover, since the Cardinals sometimes forget to show up.
PHI 19 (-7)
WAS 9
This was probably expected to be a thrilling divisional matchup for Monday night. Given what we've been seeing I might expect this to be a 3-0 victory for the Eagles.
2009 Week six Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
What movement did we see this week?
Despite the increased stats for Roethlisberger, the Steelers' AvgOff is about 1.7 points lower than it was last year, and the defense is about 4 points worse. The 4-2 record sounds ok, but the wins were against the Titans (0-6), Chargers (2-3), Lions (1-5), and Browns (1-5). A combined 4-19. The losses were against the Bengals (4-2) and Bears (3-2), with a combined record of 7-4. Not very impressive. The next two games against the Vikings and Broncos will not only give a lot of information about the team, but just purely in terms of the record, dropping to 4-4 would be a real blow to the team's playoff hopes, given the field this year.
I looked at the historical "AvgRating" for the Steelers going back a few years after six games. They haven't had a rating lower than this since the 2002/2003 seasons. Unsurprisingly, the two highest years in the past ten were in 2005 and 2008, when they ended up winning the Superbowl.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | Saints | 5 | 0 | 4.6 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 19.5 |
| 84 | Broncos | 6 | 0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 9.2 |
| 83 | Colts | 5 | 0 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 11.2 |
| 75 | Patriots | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 12.6 |
| 73 | Falcons | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 11.6 |
| 71 | Vikings | 6 | 0 | 3.7 | 7.5 | -1.1 | 6.4 |
| 68 | Giants | 5 | 1 | 2.7 | 8.1 | -0.3 | 7.8 |
| 62 | Cardinals | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 6.8 |
| 62 | Bengals | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 60 | Bears | 3 | 2 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 5.7 |
| 59 | 49ers | 3 | 2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| 58 | Ravens | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 0.2 | 6.5 |
| 58 | Dolphins | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 4.7 |
| 57 | Packers | 3 | 2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
| 56 | Jets | 3 | 3 | 0.7 | -3.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 |
| 55 | Cowboys | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -0.7 | 2.9 |
| 50 | Eagles | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 3.0 |
| 50 | Steelers | 4 | 2 | 1.7 | -2.6 | -0.2 | -2.8 |
| 49 | Seahawks | 2 | 4 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 44 | Chargers | 2 | 3 | 0.6 | 5.7 | -5.9 | -0.3 |
| 40 | Texans | 3 | 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -5.3 | -4.1 |
| 38 | Bills | 2 | 4 | -0.3 | -5.3 | 0.7 | -4.6 |
| 37 | Panthers | 2 | 3 | 0.4 | -2.8 | -4.2 | -6.9 |
| 35 | Jaguars | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | -2.5 | -5.1 | -7.6 |
| 35 | Raiders | 2 | 4 | 0.3 | -10.4 | 0.8 | -9.6 |
| 32 | Browns | 1 | 5 | -0.3 | -7.3 | -1.3 | -8.6 |
| 32 | Chiefs | 1 | 5 | -0.8 | -3.7 | -1.8 | -5.5 |
| 32 | Lions | 1 | 5 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -5.3 | -6.8 |
| 24 | Redskins | 2 | 4 | -1.3 | -12.9 | 1.3 | -11.6 |
| 14 | Buccaneers | 0 | 6 | -2.2 | -5.5 | -6.8 | -12.3 |
| 11 | Titans | 0 | 6 | -2.0 | -4.8 | -9.5 | -14.3 |
| 9 | Rams | 0 | 6 | -2.2 | -10.5 | -6.0 | -16.6 |
What movement did we see this week?
- The Saints stayed at #1 and actually improved their offensive rating quite a lot. The only team that's had a higher "AvgComb" rating than the 2009 Saints is the 2007 Patriots, so keep that in mind. However, as the Saints defense took a slide this week, their overall "AvgRating" dropped from 91 to 86.
- The Patriots moved up to take the #4 spot from the Giants, who fell to #7. The massive win against the Titans had a lot of effect on the chart, as it affected the Patriots average offense and the Titans average defense a ton. This had the effect, for example, of hurting the Steelers' offense, who only put up 13 against the Titans.
- The Falcons moved up to #5 with their win, and I'm already salivating at their two games against the Saints.
- The Steelers ended up sliding down from an AvgRating of 54 to a dead-average 50 this week. Despite being 4-2, they are miles away from the Patriots, who are a full ten points ahead on AvgOff and almost six points ahead on AvgDef.
- We still have 4 unbeaten teams and 3 winless teams, which is unprecedented at this point in the season.
- The Rams remain in the bottom spot, although at least this week they improved their AvgRating from a bottom-scraping 2 up to 9. They're still awful though.
- 94% of teams starting 6-0 have made the playoffs
- 68% of teams starting 6-0 have appeared in the conference championship game
- 51% of teams starting 6-0 have appeared in the Super Bowl
- 28% of teams starting 6-0 have won the Super Bowl
- No 0-5 team has ever made the playoffs (Might as well see if Vince Young can hack it now)
Despite the increased stats for Roethlisberger, the Steelers' AvgOff is about 1.7 points lower than it was last year, and the defense is about 4 points worse. The 4-2 record sounds ok, but the wins were against the Titans (0-6), Chargers (2-3), Lions (1-5), and Browns (1-5). A combined 4-19. The losses were against the Bengals (4-2) and Bears (3-2), with a combined record of 7-4. Not very impressive. The next two games against the Vikings and Broncos will not only give a lot of information about the team, but just purely in terms of the record, dropping to 4-4 would be a real blow to the team's playoff hopes, given the field this year.
I looked at the historical "AvgRating" for the Steelers going back a few years after six games. They haven't had a rating lower than this since the 2002/2003 seasons. Unsurprisingly, the two highest years in the past ten were in 2005 and 2008, when they ended up winning the Superbowl.
2009 Week six prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 6:
HOU 16
CIN 38 (-5)
This ended up going the other way, a 28-17 win for the Texans.
DET 30
GNB 38 (-13.5)
Well, I thought Detroit was better than people perceived, but losing 26-0 to the Packers isn't doing much to help my opinion. The Packers did cover the spread, so that was a bad prediction.
STL 14
JAC 34 (-10)
Another one where Predictabot got the spread wrong, as Jacksonville only won 23-20.
BAL 28
MIN 34 (-3)
I said that I thought Minnesota would win this one more handily, but it ended up 33-31 Vikings in a nailbiter. Unfortunately, this meant that the prediction with the spread was wrong again.
NYG 23
NOR 34 (-3)
The Saints ended up rolling, 48-27, so at least we finally have a good prediction.
CLE 13
PIT 26 (-14)
The final here was 27-14 Steelers, so this was, I think, the more accurate prediction of the week, and a pair of correct predictions.
CAR 26 (-3.5)
TAM 21
The final here was Panthers 28, Bucs 21 to form the middle of a nice trio of predictions.
KAN 17
WAS 16 (-6.5)
Well, I don't know how many people picked the Chiefs to win, but I bet it wasn't a lot. The final here was Chiefs 14, Redskins 6.
PHI 34 (-14)
OAK 14
Predictabot got this one wrong, along with most of the world. Oakland upset the Eagles 13-9.
ARI 17
SEA 27 (-3)
Completely wrong, as the Cardinals won 27-3.
TEN 13
NWE 38 (-9.5)
"Yeah, well it might not be this bad...but it sure could be." Hah. Like anyone would've predicted a 59-0 blowout in the snow. Poor Titans. Thanks, Myron.
BUF 6
NYJ 28 (-9.5)
The Jets continue to suffer, dropping 16-13 to the Bills, and another pair of bad predictions.
CHI 19
ATL 28 (-3)
Atlanta solidifies itself as an upper tier team, beating the Bears 21-14.
DEN 28
SDG 16 (-4)
Aaaand we close out the week with another decent prediction, as the final was 34-23 Broncos.
Before this week it was 48-24 (67%) picking winners, and 46-29 (61%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 57-28 (67%) picking winners and 52-36 (59%) against the spread all year.
This was the worst week by far, and the system was only 6-7 against the spread.
HOU 16
CIN 38 (-5)
This ended up going the other way, a 28-17 win for the Texans.
DET 30
GNB 38 (-13.5)
Well, I thought Detroit was better than people perceived, but losing 26-0 to the Packers isn't doing much to help my opinion. The Packers did cover the spread, so that was a bad prediction.
STL 14
JAC 34 (-10)
Another one where Predictabot got the spread wrong, as Jacksonville only won 23-20.
BAL 28
MIN 34 (-3)
I said that I thought Minnesota would win this one more handily, but it ended up 33-31 Vikings in a nailbiter. Unfortunately, this meant that the prediction with the spread was wrong again.
NYG 23
NOR 34 (-3)
The Saints ended up rolling, 48-27, so at least we finally have a good prediction.
CLE 13
PIT 26 (-14)
The final here was 27-14 Steelers, so this was, I think, the more accurate prediction of the week, and a pair of correct predictions.
CAR 26 (-3.5)
TAM 21
The final here was Panthers 28, Bucs 21 to form the middle of a nice trio of predictions.
KAN 17
WAS 16 (-6.5)
Well, I don't know how many people picked the Chiefs to win, but I bet it wasn't a lot. The final here was Chiefs 14, Redskins 6.
PHI 34 (-14)
OAK 14
Predictabot got this one wrong, along with most of the world. Oakland upset the Eagles 13-9.
ARI 17
SEA 27 (-3)
Completely wrong, as the Cardinals won 27-3.
TEN 13
NWE 38 (-9.5)
"Yeah, well it might not be this bad...but it sure could be." Hah. Like anyone would've predicted a 59-0 blowout in the snow. Poor Titans. Thanks, Myron.
BUF 6
NYJ 28 (-9.5)
The Jets continue to suffer, dropping 16-13 to the Bills, and another pair of bad predictions.
CHI 19
ATL 28 (-3)
Atlanta solidifies itself as an upper tier team, beating the Bears 21-14.
DEN 28
SDG 16 (-4)
Aaaand we close out the week with another decent prediction, as the final was 34-23 Broncos.
Before this week it was 48-24 (67%) picking winners, and 46-29 (61%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 57-28 (67%) picking winners and 52-36 (59%) against the spread all year.
This was the worst week by far, and the system was only 6-7 against the spread.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
2009 Week six
Predicted scores for 2009 week 6:
HOU 16
CIN 38 (-5)
Well, 38 points seems high to me, but I can see the Bengals covering the spread pretty easily.
DET 30
GNB 38 (-13.5)
Interesting...I've been saying all year that Detroit is much better than they were last year, and the Packers have been underperforming what I expected, so I could see this falling this way.
STL 14
JAC 34 (-10)
Another thrilling interconference matchup between a pair of teams with a combined 2-8 record.
BAL 28
MIN 34 (-3)
The Vikings have been slipping in the ratings a little as their defense has been softening. The Ravens offense has not been as productive as it was earlier in the season. Did people figure out that you just have to triple-cover Derrick Mason? I think Minnesota will win this one pretty handily for some reason.
NYG 23
NOR 34 (-3)
Well, this is going to be a humdinger. The Giants will have a more experienced and healthy WR corp, but the Saints have had a week to rest and prepare. Predictabot has the Saints rated higher on both offense and defense, but Eli Manning seems to have that ability to win that I just don't always feel with Brees.
CLE 13
PIT 26 (-14)
Cleveland is pathetic, but the Steelers and Browns always play rough and tumble. I think the Steelers winning but not covering the spread is pretty likely, especially with the loss of Aaron Smith.
CAR 26 (-3.5)
TAM 21
Will anyone not living in the South watch this one? I didn't think so. A combined 1-8.
KAN 17
WAS 16 (-6.5)
A tight one predicted here, but the Chiefs are...being picked to win? Well, only because the Redskins offense is averaging scoring 11 fewer points that their opponents have given up. Their offense is underperforming to the tune of a TD and a FG every game.
PHI 34 (-14)
OAK 14
Oh look, another blowout. McNabb gets another warmup game.
ARI 17
SEA 27 (-3)
A middle of the road game here, with two ~.500 teams, but Seattle gets the edge because of defense and the home field advantage.
TEN 13
NWE 38 (-9.5)
Yeah, well it might not be this bad...but it sure could be.
BUF 6
NYJ 28 (-9.5)
The Jets are reeling. Time to see if the rookie can rebound. Good thing they're playing the hapless Bills.
CHI 19
ATL 28 (-3)
Atlanta is enjoying a bounce from whacking the Niners, but these are another pair of teams I can't predict, myself.
DEN 28
SDG 16 (-4)
I oculd've seen this one predicted to be more of a difference, but the Denver offense hasn't exactly been setting any records. They're solidly winning with defense, but the Chargers have very little defense going on, an their offense hasn't been as good as the Denver defense has been.
I'd be A-OK with going with Denver on this one, but then...I was in favor of the Niners last week.
HOU 16
CIN 38 (-5)
Well, 38 points seems high to me, but I can see the Bengals covering the spread pretty easily.
DET 30
GNB 38 (-13.5)
Interesting...I've been saying all year that Detroit is much better than they were last year, and the Packers have been underperforming what I expected, so I could see this falling this way.
STL 14
JAC 34 (-10)
Another thrilling interconference matchup between a pair of teams with a combined 2-8 record.
BAL 28
MIN 34 (-3)
The Vikings have been slipping in the ratings a little as their defense has been softening. The Ravens offense has not been as productive as it was earlier in the season. Did people figure out that you just have to triple-cover Derrick Mason? I think Minnesota will win this one pretty handily for some reason.
NYG 23
NOR 34 (-3)
Well, this is going to be a humdinger. The Giants will have a more experienced and healthy WR corp, but the Saints have had a week to rest and prepare. Predictabot has the Saints rated higher on both offense and defense, but Eli Manning seems to have that ability to win that I just don't always feel with Brees.
CLE 13
PIT 26 (-14)
Cleveland is pathetic, but the Steelers and Browns always play rough and tumble. I think the Steelers winning but not covering the spread is pretty likely, especially with the loss of Aaron Smith.
CAR 26 (-3.5)
TAM 21
Will anyone not living in the South watch this one? I didn't think so. A combined 1-8.
KAN 17
WAS 16 (-6.5)
A tight one predicted here, but the Chiefs are...being picked to win? Well, only because the Redskins offense is averaging scoring 11 fewer points that their opponents have given up. Their offense is underperforming to the tune of a TD and a FG every game.
PHI 34 (-14)
OAK 14
Oh look, another blowout. McNabb gets another warmup game.
ARI 17
SEA 27 (-3)
A middle of the road game here, with two ~.500 teams, but Seattle gets the edge because of defense and the home field advantage.
TEN 13
NWE 38 (-9.5)
Yeah, well it might not be this bad...but it sure could be.
BUF 6
NYJ 28 (-9.5)
The Jets are reeling. Time to see if the rookie can rebound. Good thing they're playing the hapless Bills.
CHI 19
ATL 28 (-3)
Atlanta is enjoying a bounce from whacking the Niners, but these are another pair of teams I can't predict, myself.
DEN 28
SDG 16 (-4)
I oculd've seen this one predicted to be more of a difference, but the Denver offense hasn't exactly been setting any records. They're solidly winning with defense, but the Chargers have very little defense going on, an their offense hasn't been as good as the Denver defense has been.
I'd be A-OK with going with Denver on this one, but then...I was in favor of the Niners last week.
2009 Week five Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post. I've added an "AvgComb" column which is just the AvgOff and AvgDef added together.
Ok, so what've we got this week?
The Giants pushed their way four spots up the list with their performance, coupled with the performances of teams they've played. Now that we're getting a lot of interactions from the games that have played, every game can tweak the numbers for almost any other team.
The Patriots actually moved up the list, despite losing, and are bizarrely placed ahead of two 5-0 teams, including one that just beat them. That's purely on the strength of the opponents the two have played.
Unsurprisingly, the Niners and Jaguars plummeted after their blowout losses. The Steelers remain in the middle of the pack, and even a shellacking of the lowly Browns won't help them too much. The matchup in Denver in a few weeks is going to have a big effect on the Predictabot rankings, if not the AFC picture, I think.
We also still have the "extreme" records, with five undefeated teams and four winless teams. There's only been one season each with four 5-0 teams and four 0-5 teams, and the two were years apart. Wacky.
I ran some numbers on historical chances of making the playoffs with various records. Using data from every full 16-game season:
The Steelers are about where they were last year, although both the offense and defense are slightly (about a point) worse than they were last year.
| AverageRank | Team | Wins | Losses | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | Saints | 4 | 0 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 17.0 |
| 3.3 | Colts | 5 | 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 11.2 |
| 4.7 | Giants | 5 | 0 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 8.3 |
| 5.7 | Patriots | 3 | 2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 7.4 |
| 6.3 | Broncos | 5 | 0 | -1.4 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| 6.7 | Vikings | 5 | 0 | 5.5 | -0.6 | 4.8 |
| 7.3 | Falcons | 3 | 1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 8.5 |
| 7.3 | Bengals | 4 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| 9.0 | Jets | 3 | 2 | -1.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 |
| 9.7 | 49ers | 3 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| 10.0 | Ravens | 3 | 2 | 4.9 | -0.6 | 4.3 |
| 10.3 | Bears | 3 | 1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| 10.3 | Eagles | 3 | 1 | 7.2 | -1.3 | 5.9 |
| 10.7 | Seahawks | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 5.5 |
| 11.7 | Dolphins | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 4.7 |
| 11.7 | Cowboys | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | -0.7 | 2.9 |
| 12.0 | Cardinals | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 12.0 | Packers | 2 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 2.1 |
| 12.0 | Steelers | 3 | 2 | -2.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| 14.0 | Chargers | 2 | 2 | 5.1 | -4.8 | 0.3 |
| 18.0 | Lions | 1 | 4 | 2.6 | -6.3 | -3.7 |
| 19.3 | Jaguars | 2 | 3 | -1.5 | -3.1 | -4.6 |
| 19.7 | Panthers | 1 | 3 | -4.1 | -1.9 | -6.0 |
| 20.0 | Browns | 1 | 4 | -6.4 | -1.4 | -7.8 |
| 20.3 | Redskins | 2 | 3 | -11.4 | 0.7 | -10.7 |
| 21.0 | Texans | 2 | 3 | -0.8 | -6.5 | -7.3 |
| 22.3 | Chiefs | 0 | 5 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -6.2 |
| 22.7 | Bills | 1 | 4 | -6.2 | -2.4 | -8.7 |
| 23.3 | Raiders | 1 | 4 | -10.2 | -3.0 | -13.2 |
| 24.0 | Titans | 0 | 5 | -3.4 | -5.3 | -8.6 |
| 24.7 | Buccaneers | 0 | 5 | -5.4 | -4.7 | -10.1 |
| 27.0 | Rams | 0 | 5 | -11.9 | -5.8 | -17.7 |
Ok, so what've we got this week?
The Giants pushed their way four spots up the list with their performance, coupled with the performances of teams they've played. Now that we're getting a lot of interactions from the games that have played, every game can tweak the numbers for almost any other team.
The Patriots actually moved up the list, despite losing, and are bizarrely placed ahead of two 5-0 teams, including one that just beat them. That's purely on the strength of the opponents the two have played.
Unsurprisingly, the Niners and Jaguars plummeted after their blowout losses. The Steelers remain in the middle of the pack, and even a shellacking of the lowly Browns won't help them too much. The matchup in Denver in a few weeks is going to have a big effect on the Predictabot rankings, if not the AFC picture, I think.
We also still have the "extreme" records, with five undefeated teams and four winless teams. There's only been one season each with four 5-0 teams and four 0-5 teams, and the two were years apart. Wacky.
I ran some numbers on historical chances of making the playoffs with various records. Using data from every full 16-game season:
- 93% of teams starting 5-0 have made the playoffs
- 63% of teams starting 5-0 have appeared in the conference championship game
- 42% of teams starting 5-0 have appeared in the Super Bowl
- 21% of teams starting 5-0 have won the Super Bowl
- No 0-5 team has ever made the playoffs (Might as well see if Vince Young can hack it now)
The Steelers are about where they were last year, although both the offense and defense are slightly (about a point) worse than they were last year.
2009 Week five prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 5:
CIN 24
BAL 31 (-8.5)
I said that I thought Baltimore would cover the spread. Since the Bengals managed to win 17-14. An incorrect winning prediction, but a correct bet against the spread.
CLE 24
BUF 30 (-6)
Hah, well, I only had each team's scored multiplied by 5. The final was 6-3 Cleveland, so an incorrect winning prediction, and a "push" on the spread would have meant a non-bet.
WAS 13
CAR 10 (-3.5)
The final was 20-17 Carolina, so another incorrect win prediction, but a good call on the spread.
PIT 30 (-10.5)
DET 24
This is the closest prediction so far. Pittsburgh won 28-20, so finally we get a pair of correct predictions.
DAL 30 (-8)
KAN 23
This one ended up with Dallas winning by 6, 26-20, for another close prediction, and both of Predictabot's calls were correct.
OAK 10
NYG 31 (-15)
Final was 44-7 Giants. Enough said.
TAM 16
PHI 38 (-15)
Final was 33-14 Eagles. Enough said again.
MIN 34 (-10)
STL 10
Final was 38-10 Vikings. Are we done with the blowouts yet? It's funny. I had said that I expected one of these to be a massive upset. When writing last week's predictions, I nearly included the next game in the set of massive favorites...
ATL 9
SFO 30 (-2.5)
"I think the Niners deserve a much higher spread, and if there was a game this week I felt like putting real money on, I'd go with the Niners here." That's what I said. All week people said I was nuts for being so high on the Niners. The system's numbers backed it up, but when it came to the game, it was a blowout, but the Niners were on the receiving end, 45-10. Ouch.
HOU 23
ARI 30 (-5.5)
This ended up 28-21 Cardinals, so a pair of good predictions. I saw this game on in the final seconds and couldn't be bothered to see how it ended.
NWE 10 (-3)
DEN 16
Well, Predictabot went with what I thought was a bold choice, but it ended up 20-17 Denver. A pair of good predictions, and a nice upset.
JAC 23
SEA 24 (PICK)
This ended up a 41-0 hammering by the Seahawks, who I guess are glad to have a QB back, and whether a win by 1 or 41, the predictions were both right.
IND 34 (-3.5)
TEN 17
The actual final here was 31-9 Colts, which is on par with how both teams have been playing.
NYJ 16 (-1.5)
MIA 7
And we end the weak with a bad prediction, as the Jets lost to the Dolphins 31-27.
Still, a very strong weak, once you get past the first three games. The calls against the spread were a remarkable 11-2, but only 9-5 picking winners.
Before this week it was 39-19 (67%) picking winners, and 35-27 (56%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 48-24 (67%) picking winners and 46-29 (61%) against the spread all year. This week gave a real boost for the picks against the spread, and with these week's results I'd actually be ahead if I had bet on all 75 of the games so far this year that Predictabot recommended.
CIN 24
BAL 31 (-8.5)
I said that I thought Baltimore would cover the spread. Since the Bengals managed to win 17-14. An incorrect winning prediction, but a correct bet against the spread.
CLE 24
BUF 30 (-6)
Hah, well, I only had each team's scored multiplied by 5. The final was 6-3 Cleveland, so an incorrect winning prediction, and a "push" on the spread would have meant a non-bet.
WAS 13
CAR 10 (-3.5)
The final was 20-17 Carolina, so another incorrect win prediction, but a good call on the spread.
PIT 30 (-10.5)
DET 24
This is the closest prediction so far. Pittsburgh won 28-20, so finally we get a pair of correct predictions.
DAL 30 (-8)
KAN 23
This one ended up with Dallas winning by 6, 26-20, for another close prediction, and both of Predictabot's calls were correct.
OAK 10
NYG 31 (-15)
Final was 44-7 Giants. Enough said.
TAM 16
PHI 38 (-15)
Final was 33-14 Eagles. Enough said again.
MIN 34 (-10)
STL 10
Final was 38-10 Vikings. Are we done with the blowouts yet? It's funny. I had said that I expected one of these to be a massive upset. When writing last week's predictions, I nearly included the next game in the set of massive favorites...
ATL 9
SFO 30 (-2.5)
"I think the Niners deserve a much higher spread, and if there was a game this week I felt like putting real money on, I'd go with the Niners here." That's what I said. All week people said I was nuts for being so high on the Niners. The system's numbers backed it up, but when it came to the game, it was a blowout, but the Niners were on the receiving end, 45-10. Ouch.
HOU 23
ARI 30 (-5.5)
This ended up 28-21 Cardinals, so a pair of good predictions. I saw this game on in the final seconds and couldn't be bothered to see how it ended.
NWE 10 (-3)
DEN 16
Well, Predictabot went with what I thought was a bold choice, but it ended up 20-17 Denver. A pair of good predictions, and a nice upset.
JAC 23
SEA 24 (PICK)
This ended up a 41-0 hammering by the Seahawks, who I guess are glad to have a QB back, and whether a win by 1 or 41, the predictions were both right.
IND 34 (-3.5)
TEN 17
The actual final here was 31-9 Colts, which is on par with how both teams have been playing.
NYJ 16 (-1.5)
MIA 7
And we end the weak with a bad prediction, as the Jets lost to the Dolphins 31-27.
Still, a very strong weak, once you get past the first three games. The calls against the spread were a remarkable 11-2, but only 9-5 picking winners.
Before this week it was 39-19 (67%) picking winners, and 35-27 (56%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 48-24 (67%) picking winners and 46-29 (61%) against the spread all year. This week gave a real boost for the picks against the spread, and with these week's results I'd actually be ahead if I had bet on all 75 of the games so far this year that Predictabot recommended.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
2009 Week five
Predicted scores for 2009 week 5:
CIN 24
BAL 31 (-8.5)
I think Baltimore will cover the spread, personally.
CLE 24
BUF 30 (-6)
This goes against my gut, which I think will be more of a Bills blowout, but you can't really tell which version of which team will show.
WAS 13
CAR 10 (-3.5)
This is going to be a snoozefest, and I bet most of Washington's points come from turnovers.
PIT 30 (-10.5)
DET 24
Yikes. I'd have liked to see a bolder victory predicted for the Steelers, but the Lions are not as sad as they were last year by any stretch.
DAL 30 (-8)
KAN 23
A lot of predictions are coming in predicting the favored team to win, but not to beat the spread. Could be ugly!
OAK 10
NYG 31 (-15)
This is as close to a sure bet as you're likely to see...
TAM 16
PHI 38 (-15)
Except for this one...
MIN 34 (-10)
STL 10
Oh, and this one...
I actually expect one of these three to have a massive upset.
ATL 9
SFO 30 (-2.5)
I think the Niners deserve a much higher spread, and if there was a game this week I felt like putting real money on, I'd go with the Niners here.
HOU 23
ARI 30 (-5.5)
Winner of this "Oh did they play this week?" award for Week 5.
NWE 10 (-3)
DEN 16
Hmmm..bold choice here. I think Denver's defense will manage to overcome the Patriots though.
JAC 23
SEA 24 (PICK)
Slight preference for the Seahawks here, but the Jaguars seem to be getting on a roll.
IND 34 (-3.5)
TEN 17
Hard to argue this...the Colts are firing on all cylinders and are the most balanced "good" team going right now. The Titans are in turmoil.
NYJ 16 (-1.5)
MIA 7
Seems right to me. The Jets are going to be angry after the loss to the Saints, and I think the Dolphins are going to keep heading in the wrong direction.
CIN 24
BAL 31 (-8.5)
I think Baltimore will cover the spread, personally.
CLE 24
BUF 30 (-6)
This goes against my gut, which I think will be more of a Bills blowout, but you can't really tell which version of which team will show.
WAS 13
CAR 10 (-3.5)
This is going to be a snoozefest, and I bet most of Washington's points come from turnovers.
PIT 30 (-10.5)
DET 24
Yikes. I'd have liked to see a bolder victory predicted for the Steelers, but the Lions are not as sad as they were last year by any stretch.
DAL 30 (-8)
KAN 23
A lot of predictions are coming in predicting the favored team to win, but not to beat the spread. Could be ugly!
OAK 10
NYG 31 (-15)
This is as close to a sure bet as you're likely to see...
TAM 16
PHI 38 (-15)
Except for this one...
MIN 34 (-10)
STL 10
Oh, and this one...
I actually expect one of these three to have a massive upset.
ATL 9
SFO 30 (-2.5)
I think the Niners deserve a much higher spread, and if there was a game this week I felt like putting real money on, I'd go with the Niners here.
HOU 23
ARI 30 (-5.5)
Winner of this "Oh did they play this week?" award for Week 5.
NWE 10 (-3)
DEN 16
Hmmm..bold choice here. I think Denver's defense will manage to overcome the Patriots though.
JAC 23
SEA 24 (PICK)
Slight preference for the Seahawks here, but the Jaguars seem to be getting on a roll.
IND 34 (-3.5)
TEN 17
Hard to argue this...the Colts are firing on all cylinders and are the most balanced "good" team going right now. The Titans are in turmoil.
NYJ 16 (-1.5)
MIA 7
Seems right to me. The Jets are going to be angry after the loss to the Saints, and I think the Dolphins are going to keep heading in the wrong direction.
2009 Week four Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post. I've added an "AvgComb" column which is just the AvgOff and AvgDef added together.
We've got a little more variation in the ranking order and record, as two of the 3-1 teams are ranked higher than 3-1 teams, but for the most part it's still fairly linear.
The Saints are holding strong, now that their defense showed last week that they're a force to be reckoned with. They're dominating every game.
The top defenses now are in a couple of tiers. The Jets and Broncos are nearly tied for the top, with the Saints, Colts, and Niners on the next tier down. Offense is fairly tight with the exception of the Saints, who are scoring an average of 11.2 points more than their opponents have been giving up this year.
Last year at this time, the top five teams were the Redskins, Bucs, Titans, Bills, and Cowboys. The bottom five were the Falcons, Bengals, Texans, Chiefs, and Rams. There are a lot more team with extreme records this year, compared with last. Last year there were just two undefeated teams, compared with five this year, and three winless teams, compared with five this year.
The Steelers moved a little up the chart and are now ranked in the 14th spot, compared with 10th last year at this time.
| AverageRank | Team | Wins | Losses | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | Saints | 4 | 0 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 17.0 |
| 4.0 | Colts | 4 | 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 10.4 |
| 6.0 | Vikings | 4 | 0 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 5.8 |
| 7.3 | 49ers | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 |
| 8.0 | Patriots | 3 | 1 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 5.9 |
| 8.3 | Giants | 4 | 0 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 5.2 |
| 8.7 | Broncos | 4 | 0 | -2.6 | 10.4 | 7.8 |
| 9.7 | Jets | 3 | 1 | -2.6 | 10.8 | 8.2 |
| 10.0 | Ravens | 3 | 1 | 5.8 | -1.2 | 4.6 |
| 10.3 | Bears | 3 | 1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| 11.7 | Bengals | 3 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| 12.0 | Packers | 2 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 2.1 |
| 12.7 | Cowboys | 2 | 2 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 3.0 |
| 13.0 | Steelers | 2 | 2 | -1.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 14.0 | Chargers | 2 | 2 | 5.1 | -4.8 | 0.3 |
| 14.0 | Jaguars | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 2.6 |
| 15.3 | Dolphins | 1 | 3 | -1.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 16.7 | Texans | 2 | 2 | 2.4 | -5.0 | -2.6 |
| 17.0 | Seahawks | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 18.3 | Redskins | 2 | 2 | -11.8 | 1.3 | -10.6 |
| 18.7 | Lions | 1 | 3 | 2.9 | -7.1 | -4.2 |
| 21.3 | Raiders | 1 | 3 | -10.3 | -0.4 | -10.6 |
| 22.0 | Browns | 0 | 4 | -4.1 | -4.2 | -8.3 |
| 22.0 | Bills | 1 | 3 | -1.7 | -4.6 | -6.3 |
| 23.0 | Chiefs | 0 | 4 | -4.4 | -3.1 | -7.5 |
| 23.0 | Titans | 0 | 4 | -0.8 | -5.1 | -5.9 |
| 25.7 | Buccaneers | 0 | 4 | -6.1 | -5.9 | -12.1 |
| 27.3 | Rams | 0 | 4 | -12.1 | -6.0 | -18.1 |
We've got a little more variation in the ranking order and record, as two of the 3-1 teams are ranked higher than 3-1 teams, but for the most part it's still fairly linear.
The Saints are holding strong, now that their defense showed last week that they're a force to be reckoned with. They're dominating every game.
The top defenses now are in a couple of tiers. The Jets and Broncos are nearly tied for the top, with the Saints, Colts, and Niners on the next tier down. Offense is fairly tight with the exception of the Saints, who are scoring an average of 11.2 points more than their opponents have been giving up this year.
Last year at this time, the top five teams were the Redskins, Bucs, Titans, Bills, and Cowboys. The bottom five were the Falcons, Bengals, Texans, Chiefs, and Rams. There are a lot more team with extreme records this year, compared with last. Last year there were just two undefeated teams, compared with five this year, and three winless teams, compared with five this year.
The Steelers moved a little up the chart and are now ranked in the 14th spot, compared with 10th last year at this time.
2009 Week four prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 4:
DET 16
CHI 27 (-10)
The final was Chicago 48, Detroit 24, so right on picking both the winner and against the spread.
CIN 23 (-5.5)
CLE 13
Well, I said I thought the Bengals should've been picked to score more than this, but the final was just 23-20 Bengals, so as a result the prediction against the spread is wrong
OAK 13
HOU 30 (-9.5)
My personal prediction was 20-6 Texans, I think, but it ended up 29-6. No big surprises, and two correct predictions.
SEA 14
IND 26 (-9)
Another pretty good prediction, as the final was 24-17 in favor of the Colts.
TEN 21 (-3)
JAC 14
Bad news for the Titans, as they dropped to the Jaguars 37-17. Two wrong predictions here, and the end of the line for the Titans playoff hopes.
NYG 30 (-8.5)
KAN 13
The final here was 27-16 Giants, so another solid prediction.
BAL 23
NWE 17 (-2)
My gut was that the Ravens would win this one, but the Patriots managed to put them down, 27-21. Wrong predictions by Predictabot on all counts.
TAM 19
WAS 14 (-7)
I figured that Washington would win this one but not beat the spread, which was just what happened. The Redskins won 16-13. Predictabot was wrong about the winner, but right about how to bet the points.
BUF 19 (-2)
MIA 19
My personal choice was Buffalo, and it was totally wrong. The Dolphins spanked the Bills 38-10, which means the prediction to go with Miami against the spread was the right call.
NYJ 10
NOR 38 (-7)
The Jets did a good job with the Saints offense, but the Saints defense finally made itself more visible. The final was 24-10 Saints, which does mean a pair of good predictions.
DAL 27 (-3)
DEN 19
I went against Predictabot here again and thought Denver would somehow pull it out, which they did, winning 17-10, and both predictions were wrong.
STL 7
SFO 34 (-9.5)
The actual score was 35-0 Niners, which is just sad for the Rams, who are by far the worst team in the league. Two good predictions.
SDG 24
PIT 17 (-6.5)
Well, sometimes I love having Predictabot be wrong. Steelers win 38-28, and both predictions are incorrect.
GNB 21
MIN 21 (-3.5)
I went with the Packers myself, and that shows you what I know. (I have a bias toward the Packers this year even though they aren't performing as well as I expected). The Vikings won 30-23, and that means that the prediction to go with the Packers considering the spread was wrong.
Before this week it was 32-14 (70%) picking winners, and 27-21 (56%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 39-19 (67%) picking winners and 35-27 (56%) against the spread all year. Still holding fairly consistent, although the winning predictions are a little down this week.
DET 16
CHI 27 (-10)
The final was Chicago 48, Detroit 24, so right on picking both the winner and against the spread.
CIN 23 (-5.5)
CLE 13
Well, I said I thought the Bengals should've been picked to score more than this, but the final was just 23-20 Bengals, so as a result the prediction against the spread is wrong
OAK 13
HOU 30 (-9.5)
My personal prediction was 20-6 Texans, I think, but it ended up 29-6. No big surprises, and two correct predictions.
SEA 14
IND 26 (-9)
Another pretty good prediction, as the final was 24-17 in favor of the Colts.
TEN 21 (-3)
JAC 14
Bad news for the Titans, as they dropped to the Jaguars 37-17. Two wrong predictions here, and the end of the line for the Titans playoff hopes.
NYG 30 (-8.5)
KAN 13
The final here was 27-16 Giants, so another solid prediction.
BAL 23
NWE 17 (-2)
My gut was that the Ravens would win this one, but the Patriots managed to put them down, 27-21. Wrong predictions by Predictabot on all counts.
TAM 19
WAS 14 (-7)
I figured that Washington would win this one but not beat the spread, which was just what happened. The Redskins won 16-13. Predictabot was wrong about the winner, but right about how to bet the points.
BUF 19 (-2)
MIA 19
My personal choice was Buffalo, and it was totally wrong. The Dolphins spanked the Bills 38-10, which means the prediction to go with Miami against the spread was the right call.
NYJ 10
NOR 38 (-7)
The Jets did a good job with the Saints offense, but the Saints defense finally made itself more visible. The final was 24-10 Saints, which does mean a pair of good predictions.
DAL 27 (-3)
DEN 19
I went against Predictabot here again and thought Denver would somehow pull it out, which they did, winning 17-10, and both predictions were wrong.
STL 7
SFO 34 (-9.5)
The actual score was 35-0 Niners, which is just sad for the Rams, who are by far the worst team in the league. Two good predictions.
SDG 24
PIT 17 (-6.5)
Well, sometimes I love having Predictabot be wrong. Steelers win 38-28, and both predictions are incorrect.
GNB 21
MIN 21 (-3.5)
I went with the Packers myself, and that shows you what I know. (I have a bias toward the Packers this year even though they aren't performing as well as I expected). The Vikings won 30-23, and that means that the prediction to go with the Packers considering the spread was wrong.
Before this week it was 32-14 (70%) picking winners, and 27-21 (56%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 39-19 (67%) picking winners and 35-27 (56%) against the spread all year. Still holding fairly consistent, although the winning predictions are a little down this week.
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