Predicted scores for 2009 week 4:
DET 16
CHI 27 (-10)
I don't think this is hard to believe.
CIN 23 (-5.5)
CLE 13
I suspect this should be predicted to be more of a blowout, and I suspect the Bengals carryover rating from last year is affecting this. This will be shifting to entirely based on this year's results in a couple of weeks, so that might see them being predicted stronger if they keep winning.
OAK 13
HOU 30 (-9.5)
I get a feeling this will be more like 20-6, Texans.
SEA 14
IND 26 (-9)
Seems fair.
TEN 21 (-3)
JAC 14
Well, for the Titan's sake let's hope they can pull out a win. From my data going back to 1970, only the '92 Chargers were 0-4 and ever made the playoffs. Of course, only five 0-3 teams ever made the playoffs (out of 185), the 98 Bills, the 95 Lions, the 92 Chargers, the 82 Bucs, and the 81 Jets.
NYG 30 (-8.5)
KAN 13
No argument here.
BAL 23
NWE 17 (-2)
This could be an interesting one. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in the past. While it's early, they currently have the third worst (out of 14) average defensive rating per game in their history. The offense, however, is currently the best it's been, and is substantially ahead of last year. Flacco!
TAM 19
WAS 14 (-7)
Hah, I sure can't agree with this, but I sure wouldn't take the Redskins with the points.
BUF 19 (-2)
MIA 19
Too close to call, it says. Well, knowing that Pennington is broken again, I'll go with Buffalo.
NYJ 10
NOR 38 (-7)
Surprising here, but again, partially due to including some of last year's rankings in the early part of a new season. I don't know what to expect in this game. It's an intriguing matchup of what I have as the top offense going against the top defense, and while I don't think it'll be a Superbowl preview. 133 out of 188 teams that were 3-0 made the playoffs, and fully 41 of them (21%) of them ended up in the Superbowl.
DAL 27 (-3)
DEN 19
Another interesting matchup of a pretty potent offense going against a solid defense, but personally I suspect Denver is going to end up on top somehow. Bastards.
STL 7
SFO 34 (-9.5)
The Niners look for revenge in a divisional matchup after a last-second loss. Even with the RB situation in San Francisco, I think this is a pretty safe bet.
SDG 24
PIT 17 (-6.5)
I'm really pretty surprised to see the Steelers favored here. I have to assume it's bettors going with the Superbowl winner and the lines being set appropriately. I know the Steelers can win, but if they keep doing what they've been doing, it's going to be ugly.
GNB 21
MIN 21 (-3.5)
Too close to call! 20-21 is basically the "average" score by an NFL team (20.41 to be exact!), so this is basically a "hands up in the air your guess is as good as mine" situation. Personally, I'm taking the Packers, who I think will manage to slightly outscore the Vikings.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
2009 Week three Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see last week's rankings. I've added an "AvgComb" column which is just the AvgOff and AvgDef added together.
Ok, so what can we gather from this? First of all you'll see that the AverageRank is very much lining up with the team's record so far, with a few slight exceptions. Usually as more games are played the numbers show much more variation.
The Saints are clearly on top, with a dominating offense and a solid defense. The top defensive teams are pretty surprising, being the Jets, Broncos, Saints, Niners, and Patriots, but again, there's not too much data yet this year.
Despite the Ravens reputation, they're winning this year with the second best offensive rating and a slightly below average defense.
Last year at this time, the top five teams were the Cowboys, Redskins, Cardinals, Eagles, and Bills. The bottom five were the Jets, Colts, Lions, Chiefs, and Rams.
The Steelers are ranked right where they are playing, which is bottom-middle-of-the-pack, with a weak offense and a defense that plays well for 45 minutes per game. Last year at this time the Steelers were 2-1 with an AverageRank of 15.7, not much better than they are this year. For all the panicking, the Steelers could easily be 3-0 (and also just as easily be 0-3!), I'm not ready to write anything off yet.
For the record, the Steelers have, since 1970, started 1-2 nine times, and made the playoffs in five of those years. They made it in 76, 89, 93, 97, and 02, and missed the playoffs in 81, 88, 90, and in 2006 after the last Superbowl win.
| AverageRank | Team | Wins | Losses | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | Saints | 3 | 0 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 19.9 |
| 5.3 | Giants | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 6.9 |
| 7.3 | Jets | 3 | 0 | -1.7 | 9.3 | 7.7 |
| 7.3 | Patriots | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 6.3 |
| 7.7 | Bengals | 2 | 1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 8.4 |
| 7.7 | 49ers | 2 | 1 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 7.9 |
| 8.3 | Ravens | 3 | 0 | 7.2 | -1.0 | 6.2 |
| 8.3 | Broncos | 3 | 0 | -2.4 | 8.7 | 6.2 |
| 9.0 | Colts | 3 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| 10.7 | Vikings | 3 | 0 | 3.3 | -1.8 | 1.6 |
| 11.0 | Bears | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| 11.7 | Chargers | 2 | 1 | 4.4 | -1.1 | 3.3 |
| 12.3 | Eagles | 2 | 1 | 6.0 | -1.2 | 4.8 |
| 15.7 | Lions | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 0.6 |
| 15.7 | Packers | 2 | 1 | 6.7 | -5.2 | 1.4 |
| 15.7 | Cowboys | 2 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.8 | 0.8 |
| 16.7 | Cardinals | 1 | 2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 17.0 | Bills | 1 | 2 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 17.7 | Seahawks | 1 | 2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | -0.6 |
| 18.7 | Steelers | 1 | 2 | -4.4 | 2.9 | -1.6 |
| 20.0 | Raiders | 1 | 2 | -6.3 | 1.3 | -5.0 |
| 20.0 | Jaguars | 1 | 2 | -2.1 | -1.4 | -3.6 |
| 21.0 | Falcons | 2 | 1 | -3.9 | -2.1 | -6.0 |
| 21.7 | Redskins | 1 | 2 | -9.7 | 1.8 | -7.9 |
| 21.7 | Dolphins | 0 | 3 | -3.7 | -0.6 | -4.2 |
| 22.0 | Texans | 1 | 2 | 2.4 | -8.4 | -6.0 |
| 24.0 | Titans | 0 | 3 | 0.6 | -4.1 | -3.6 |
| 25.3 | Browns | 0 | 3 | -4.3 | -3.6 | -7.9 |
| 25.7 | Chiefs | 0 | 3 | -4.2 | -2.4 | -6.7 |
| 27.7 | Panthers | 0 | 3 | -8.3 | -2.7 | -11.0 |
| 29.0 | Buccaneers | 0 | 3 | -6.4 | -4.8 | -11.2 |
| 31.0 | Rams | 0 | 3 | -9.8 | -4.6 | -14.3 |
Ok, so what can we gather from this? First of all you'll see that the AverageRank is very much lining up with the team's record so far, with a few slight exceptions. Usually as more games are played the numbers show much more variation.
The Saints are clearly on top, with a dominating offense and a solid defense. The top defensive teams are pretty surprising, being the Jets, Broncos, Saints, Niners, and Patriots, but again, there's not too much data yet this year.
Despite the Ravens reputation, they're winning this year with the second best offensive rating and a slightly below average defense.
Last year at this time, the top five teams were the Cowboys, Redskins, Cardinals, Eagles, and Bills. The bottom five were the Jets, Colts, Lions, Chiefs, and Rams.
The Steelers are ranked right where they are playing, which is bottom-middle-of-the-pack, with a weak offense and a defense that plays well for 45 minutes per game. Last year at this time the Steelers were 2-1 with an AverageRank of 15.7, not much better than they are this year. For all the panicking, the Steelers could easily be 3-0 (and also just as easily be 0-3!), I'm not ready to write anything off yet.
For the record, the Steelers have, since 1970, started 1-2 nine times, and made the playoffs in five of those years. They made it in 76, 89, 93, 97, and 02, and missed the playoffs in 81, 88, 90, and in 2006 after the last Superbowl win.
2009 Week three prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 3:
CLE 6
BAL 31 (-13.5)
The final was 34-3, Baltimore, so right prediction on both counts.
GNB 34 (-6.5)
STL 9
36-17 Packers, so both predictions were correct.
NYG 26 (-7)
TAM 14
The real final was 24-0 in favor of the Giants, so good predictions, but the TB offense sure took a nosedive.
TEN 23
NYJ 16 (-2.5)
As I said, this prediction surprised me, and it turned out wrong on both accounts, as the Jets won 24-17.
KAN 10
PHI 35 (-9.5)
"Donovan Who? It doesn't matter, it's the Chiefs!" The final was 34-14 Eagles, so yeah.
WAS 19 (-6.5)
DET 16
Detroit finally gets a win, 19-14, which means that this was a wrong prediction for the winner, but correct against the spread.
JAC 17
HOU 30 (-4)
These unpredictable teams ended up with Jacksonville on top 31-24, so both predictions were wrong.
ATL 16
NWE 26 (-4)
The final here was 26-10 New England, so good predictions.
SFO 17
MIN 21 (-6.5)
Well, I thought Minnesota would blow them out, but it turned out to be a tight 27-24 victory for them. The winner was right, but the spread prediction was wrong.
NOR 30 (-6)
BUF 17
I joked about the Saints only being predicted to score 30, and here they go and win 27-7, which is a nice result. Both predictions were correct.
CHI 20 (-2.5)
SEA 17
Chicago ended up on top 25-19, so both predictions were right.
PIT 19 (-4)
CIN 10
Ugh. Both wrong.
DEN 21
OAK 19 (-1)
Well, this was nowhere near as tight as the system predicted. The final was 23-3 Denver, so the winner was right, but the spread prediction was wrong.
MIA 16
SDG 28 (-6)
The final was 23-13 San Diego, so both predictions were right.
IND 24
ARI 30 (-2.5)
"Another surprise here, as I'd have gone with Indianapolis"... and so would reality. Colts win 31-10, so a pair of wrong predictions.
CAR 19
DAL 26 (-9.5)
This ended up 21-7 Cowboys, so the winner was predicted correctly, but the spread spreading was wrong.
So for this week, if I can count correctly, Predictabot had a decent 11-5 (69%) picking winners, and 9-7 (56%)against the spread.
Before this week it was 21-9 (70%) picking winners, and 18-14 (56%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 32-14 (70%) and 27-21 (56%) against the spread all year. Pretty consistent results.
CLE 6
BAL 31 (-13.5)
The final was 34-3, Baltimore, so right prediction on both counts.
GNB 34 (-6.5)
STL 9
36-17 Packers, so both predictions were correct.
NYG 26 (-7)
TAM 14
The real final was 24-0 in favor of the Giants, so good predictions, but the TB offense sure took a nosedive.
TEN 23
NYJ 16 (-2.5)
As I said, this prediction surprised me, and it turned out wrong on both accounts, as the Jets won 24-17.
KAN 10
PHI 35 (-9.5)
"Donovan Who? It doesn't matter, it's the Chiefs!" The final was 34-14 Eagles, so yeah.
WAS 19 (-6.5)
DET 16
Detroit finally gets a win, 19-14, which means that this was a wrong prediction for the winner, but correct against the spread.
JAC 17
HOU 30 (-4)
These unpredictable teams ended up with Jacksonville on top 31-24, so both predictions were wrong.
ATL 16
NWE 26 (-4)
The final here was 26-10 New England, so good predictions.
SFO 17
MIN 21 (-6.5)
Well, I thought Minnesota would blow them out, but it turned out to be a tight 27-24 victory for them. The winner was right, but the spread prediction was wrong.
NOR 30 (-6)
BUF 17
I joked about the Saints only being predicted to score 30, and here they go and win 27-7, which is a nice result. Both predictions were correct.
CHI 20 (-2.5)
SEA 17
Chicago ended up on top 25-19, so both predictions were right.
PIT 19 (-4)
CIN 10
Ugh. Both wrong.
DEN 21
OAK 19 (-1)
Well, this was nowhere near as tight as the system predicted. The final was 23-3 Denver, so the winner was right, but the spread prediction was wrong.
MIA 16
SDG 28 (-6)
The final was 23-13 San Diego, so both predictions were right.
IND 24
ARI 30 (-2.5)
"Another surprise here, as I'd have gone with Indianapolis"... and so would reality. Colts win 31-10, so a pair of wrong predictions.
CAR 19
DAL 26 (-9.5)
This ended up 21-7 Cowboys, so the winner was predicted correctly, but the spread spreading was wrong.
So for this week, if I can count correctly, Predictabot had a decent 11-5 (69%) picking winners, and 9-7 (56%)against the spread.
Before this week it was 21-9 (70%) picking winners, and 18-14 (56%) against the spread for the year, and these results bring it to 32-14 (70%) and 27-21 (56%) against the spread all year. Pretty consistent results.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
2009 Week two Rankings
Now that we have a couple weeks under our belt, we can start doing some analysis. This is the standard "weekly" report of how teams are doing.
There are three main calculations that are generated based on the gamedata. The "winrating" is a measure of how you've performed against teams based on their record. Losing to a undefeated team hurts a team a lot less than losing to a team that is 0-10, for example. Early in the season, the winrating isn't much use, due to the smaller sample size. Since every team is either 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2, there isn't a lot of variation. For example, in week three, the "raw" winrating ranges from -2 (for the Titans) to 6 (for three teams). Historically, the winrating of teams at the end of the regular season is one of the best indicators of the eventual Superbowl winner. The second calculation is the "offrating", which is a measure of how many points your team produces compared with how many your opponent usually allows. For example, if team A scores 20 points against a team that averages allowing 14 points, their offrating increases by 6. "Defrating" is similar, in that it's a measure of how many points a team allows compared with what the opponent usually scores.
I should point out that while the fields are "offrating" and "defrating", it isn't purely the offense and defense that are being rated. It's related to points scored and allowed, regardless of where they come from. This means that a team that gets a lot of defensive TDs would end up with a higher "offrating", since the scored points would apply to that.
Now, on to the table itself:
The "AverageRank" is the average of where the team ranks in term of those three calculated ratings. "Team", "Wins" and "Losses" are self-explanatory. "AvgOff" and "AvgDef" are the team's average offrating and defrating per game. Having an "AvgOff" of 7, for example, means that that team has scored, on average, seven more points per game than their opponents have allowed over all their games.
Specific comments about this week's ratings are after the table.
There's definitely a few surprises in the rankings, but keep in mind this is just two weeks worth of data, and it usually takes until week 8 or so for things to start to come together and really reveal some interesting trends.
Some things are clear however. The Saints have the best offense going so far, but we'll see if it holds up as the season progresses. The leading defensive teams are...the Jets, Broncos, and Niners? Yikes.
It's kind of hard to argue with the Steelers ranking so far. The offense has been atrocious, and only the Raiders, Redskins, and Rams are rated lower. The defense is holding up, as it's at the top of the second-tier right now.
Note that the Lions are the top-rated 0-2 team. This is because they've faced two teams that are 2-0, so the losses haven't hurt their winrating very much. Their offense and defense have actually done comparably to the Vikings/Saints other opponents, so they are kind of "middle-of-the-pack", despite the losses.
For what it's worth after two weeks last year, the top five teams were: Cardinals, Cowboys, Bills, Panthers, Titans, and the bottom five were Lions, Dolphins, Seahawks, Rams, and Chiefs. The Steelers were right in the middle of the pack with an average rank of 13.7, a 2-0 record, avgoff of -4.5, and avgdef of 1.0.
This slightly implies that at this point last year the defense was weaker, but the offense was a little stronger.
There are three main calculations that are generated based on the gamedata. The "winrating" is a measure of how you've performed against teams based on their record. Losing to a undefeated team hurts a team a lot less than losing to a team that is 0-10, for example. Early in the season, the winrating isn't much use, due to the smaller sample size. Since every team is either 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2, there isn't a lot of variation. For example, in week three, the "raw" winrating ranges from -2 (for the Titans) to 6 (for three teams). Historically, the winrating of teams at the end of the regular season is one of the best indicators of the eventual Superbowl winner. The second calculation is the "offrating", which is a measure of how many points your team produces compared with how many your opponent usually allows. For example, if team A scores 20 points against a team that averages allowing 14 points, their offrating increases by 6. "Defrating" is similar, in that it's a measure of how many points a team allows compared with what the opponent usually scores.
I should point out that while the fields are "offrating" and "defrating", it isn't purely the offense and defense that are being rated. It's related to points scored and allowed, regardless of where they come from. This means that a team that gets a lot of defensive TDs would end up with a higher "offrating", since the scored points would apply to that.
Now, on to the table itself:
The "AverageRank" is the average of where the team ranks in term of those three calculated ratings. "Team", "Wins" and "Losses" are self-explanatory. "AvgOff" and "AvgDef" are the team's average offrating and defrating per game. Having an "AvgOff" of 7, for example, means that that team has scored, on average, seven more points per game than their opponents have allowed over all their games.
Specific comments about this week's ratings are after the table.
| AverageRank | Team | Wins | Losses | AvgOff | AvgDef |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | 49ers | 2 | 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 |
| 5.0 | Saints | 2 | 0 | 14.0 | 0.5 |
| 8.3 | Bengals | 1 | 1 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| 8.3 | Jets | 2 | 0 | -3.8 | 10.8 |
| 8.3 | Giants | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | -1.3 |
| 9.7 | Patriots | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 4.3 |
| 10.0 | Ravens | 2 | 0 | 9.0 | -4.0 |
| 11.3 | Seahawks | 1 | 1 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| 11.7 | Cardinals | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | -0.5 |
| 11.7 | Broncos | 2 | 0 | -4.8 | 9.5 |
| 12.0 | Eagles | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 12.0 | Chargers | 1 | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 14.0 | Bears | 1 | 1 | -2.3 | 0.5 |
| 14.0 | Vikings | 2 | 0 | -2.8 | 0.0 |
| 14.0 | Falcons | 2 | 0 | -4.5 | 1.5 |
| 15.0 | Cowboys | 1 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| 16.0 | Colts | 2 | 0 | -2.3 | -2.8 |
| 16.3 | Raiders | 1 | 1 | -9.0 | 4.0 |
| 16.3 | Lions | 0 | 2 | -0.5 | 2.5 |
| 16.7 | Texans | 1 | 1 | 4.8 | -7.3 |
| 16.7 | Bills | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | -3.8 |
| 18.0 | Redskins | 1 | 1 | -8.3 | 0.8 |
| 18.3 | Steelers | 1 | 1 | -7.0 | 4.8 |
| 18.7 | Packers | 1 | 1 | 4.8 | -5.5 |
| 20.3 | Dolphins | 0 | 2 | -0.5 | -1.0 |
| 22.0 | Browns | 0 | 2 | 1.5 | -5.5 |
| 22.3 | Chiefs | 0 | 2 | -4.0 | 0.0 |
| 22.7 | Jaguars | 0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| 25.0 | Titans | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| 26.0 | Buccaneers | 0 | 2 | -4.3 | -3.0 |
| 27.3 | Panthers | 0 | 2 | -6.3 | -6.3 |
| 27.3 | Rams | 0 | 2 | -9.8 | -2.5 |
There's definitely a few surprises in the rankings, but keep in mind this is just two weeks worth of data, and it usually takes until week 8 or so for things to start to come together and really reveal some interesting trends.
Some things are clear however. The Saints have the best offense going so far, but we'll see if it holds up as the season progresses. The leading defensive teams are...the Jets, Broncos, and Niners? Yikes.
It's kind of hard to argue with the Steelers ranking so far. The offense has been atrocious, and only the Raiders, Redskins, and Rams are rated lower. The defense is holding up, as it's at the top of the second-tier right now.
Note that the Lions are the top-rated 0-2 team. This is because they've faced two teams that are 2-0, so the losses haven't hurt their winrating very much. Their offense and defense have actually done comparably to the Vikings/Saints other opponents, so they are kind of "middle-of-the-pack", despite the losses.
For what it's worth after two weeks last year, the top five teams were: Cardinals, Cowboys, Bills, Panthers, Titans, and the bottom five were Lions, Dolphins, Seahawks, Rams, and Chiefs. The Steelers were right in the middle of the pack with an average rank of 13.7, a 2-0 record, avgoff of -4.5, and avgdef of 1.0.
This slightly implies that at this point last year the defense was weaker, but the offense was a little stronger.
2009 Week three
Predicted scores for 2009 week 3:
CLE 6
BAL 31 (-13.5)
Hard to argue, sadly.
GNB 34 (-6.5)
STL 9
I suspect this will be closer, but not by a lot.
NYG 26 (-7)
TAM 14
If you've got Manningham in your fantasy league, might be a good time to pull that trigger.
TEN 23
NYJ 16 (-2.5)
I'm surprised by this a little, although at this point in the season the system is still giving some weight to the results of the previous season.
KAN 10
PHI 35 (-9.5)
Donovan Who? It doesn't matter, it's the Chiefs!
WAS 19 (-6.5)
DET 16
Well, at leat Detroit isn't facing New Orleans or Minnesota again.
JAC 17
HOU 30 (-4)
Which version of which team will show up? Who knows?
ATL 16
NWE 26 (-4)
I'm curious to see if Atlanta's defense can rattle Brady, but I can't argue with the pick here.
SFO 17
MIN 21 (-6.5)
My gut feeling on this is a Minnesota blowout, more like 30-10, but I might be biased my how long the Niners have been terrible.
NOR 30 (-6)
BUF 17
What's this? New Orleans being predicted to only score 30? Madness.
CHI 20 (-2.5)
SEA 17
This could go either way, depending on which Cutler shows up.
PIT 19 (-4)
CIN 10
I am sad to say that I would be happy with this result, instead of the desired 40-3 shellacking.
DEN 21
OAK 19 (-1)
This could be a big one down the line in the AFC West.
MIA 16
SDG 28 (-6)
I'm surprised at such a score differential here, but if the Dolphins give up points as fast again this week it might be a long day for them.
IND 24
ARI 30 (-2.5)
Another surprise here, as I'd have gone with Indianapolis.
CAR 19
DAL 26 (-9.5)
I'd lay my money on the Cowboys, wanting to come back from last week's loss and the Panthers still largely incompetent.
CLE 6
BAL 31 (-13.5)
Hard to argue, sadly.
GNB 34 (-6.5)
STL 9
I suspect this will be closer, but not by a lot.
NYG 26 (-7)
TAM 14
If you've got Manningham in your fantasy league, might be a good time to pull that trigger.
TEN 23
NYJ 16 (-2.5)
I'm surprised by this a little, although at this point in the season the system is still giving some weight to the results of the previous season.
KAN 10
PHI 35 (-9.5)
Donovan Who? It doesn't matter, it's the Chiefs!
WAS 19 (-6.5)
DET 16
Well, at leat Detroit isn't facing New Orleans or Minnesota again.
JAC 17
HOU 30 (-4)
Which version of which team will show up? Who knows?
ATL 16
NWE 26 (-4)
I'm curious to see if Atlanta's defense can rattle Brady, but I can't argue with the pick here.
SFO 17
MIN 21 (-6.5)
My gut feeling on this is a Minnesota blowout, more like 30-10, but I might be biased my how long the Niners have been terrible.
NOR 30 (-6)
BUF 17
What's this? New Orleans being predicted to only score 30? Madness.
CHI 20 (-2.5)
SEA 17
This could go either way, depending on which Cutler shows up.
PIT 19 (-4)
CIN 10
I am sad to say that I would be happy with this result, instead of the desired 40-3 shellacking.
DEN 21
OAK 19 (-1)
This could be a big one down the line in the AFC West.
MIA 16
SDG 28 (-6)
I'm surprised at such a score differential here, but if the Dolphins give up points as fast again this week it might be a long day for them.
IND 24
ARI 30 (-2.5)
Another surprise here, as I'd have gone with Indianapolis.
CAR 19
DAL 26 (-9.5)
I'd lay my money on the Cowboys, wanting to come back from last week's loss and the Panthers still largely incompetent.
Monday, September 21, 2009
2009 Week two prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 2:
CAR 17
ATL 19 (-6)
It was Atlanta by 8, so the win was correct, but against the spread it was not.
MIN 34 (-10)
DET 9
Vikings 27, Lions 13, right on both accounts.
CIN 10
GNB 31 (-9.5)
The Bengals won 31-24, so both predictions were wrong here.
ARI 31
JAC 26 (-3)
A decent prediction...the final was Cardinals 31, Jaguars 17. Correct predictions on both sides.
OAK 16
KAN 16 (-3)
The final was 13-10 Raiders, which means it's a "push" in terms of win prediction (since one wasn't made), but a correct call against the spread.
NWE 26 (-3.5)
NYJ 23
Another close game with a delicious result, the final score was Jets 16, Pats 9, which means the predictions were split.
NOR 24
PHI 35 (PICK)
The final here was New Orleans 48-22, so wrong on both sides.
HOU 13
TEN 30 (-6.5)
"Houston doesn't have it together," I said. Oh well! Texans win 34-31, so wrong on both accounts.
STL 3
WAS 21 (-9.5)
Washtingon won by 2, so another split prediction.
TAM 17
BUF 13 (-5)
The final was Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 20, and once again we've got a split prediction.
SEA 14
SFO 21 (-1.5)
Niners won 23-10, so finally we get another good set.
PIT 21 (-3)
CHI 10
Bah! Bears 17-14. Bah!
CLE 19
DEN 24 (-3)
The Broncos won 27-6 so both predictions are right.
BAL 26
SDG 24 (-3)
"My gut is telling me the Ravens will pull this one out". Bah x2. The Ravens win 31-26, but at least the prediction against the spread was right.
NYG 30
DAL 21 (-3)
Final was 33-31 Giants, so a good pair of predictions.
IND 19 (-3)
MIA 13
Not quite what I expected, by the Colts won by 4, so a pair of good predictions. That puts this week's results at 8-7 picking winners, 10-6 against the spread. (If I did the math right, which I did plenty of times last week.)
Last week, Predictabot was 13-2 straight up and 8-8 against the spread. That puts it at 21-9 (70%) picking winners, and 18-14 (56%) against the spread for the year.
CAR 17
ATL 19 (-6)
It was Atlanta by 8, so the win was correct, but against the spread it was not.
MIN 34 (-10)
DET 9
Vikings 27, Lions 13, right on both accounts.
CIN 10
GNB 31 (-9.5)
The Bengals won 31-24, so both predictions were wrong here.
ARI 31
JAC 26 (-3)
A decent prediction...the final was Cardinals 31, Jaguars 17. Correct predictions on both sides.
OAK 16
KAN 16 (-3)
The final was 13-10 Raiders, which means it's a "push" in terms of win prediction (since one wasn't made), but a correct call against the spread.
NWE 26 (-3.5)
NYJ 23
Another close game with a delicious result, the final score was Jets 16, Pats 9, which means the predictions were split.
NOR 24
PHI 35 (PICK)
The final here was New Orleans 48-22, so wrong on both sides.
HOU 13
TEN 30 (-6.5)
"Houston doesn't have it together," I said. Oh well! Texans win 34-31, so wrong on both accounts.
STL 3
WAS 21 (-9.5)
Washtingon won by 2, so another split prediction.
TAM 17
BUF 13 (-5)
The final was Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 20, and once again we've got a split prediction.
SEA 14
SFO 21 (-1.5)
Niners won 23-10, so finally we get another good set.
PIT 21 (-3)
CHI 10
Bah! Bears 17-14. Bah!
CLE 19
DEN 24 (-3)
The Broncos won 27-6 so both predictions are right.
BAL 26
SDG 24 (-3)
"My gut is telling me the Ravens will pull this one out". Bah x2. The Ravens win 31-26, but at least the prediction against the spread was right.
NYG 30
DAL 21 (-3)
Final was 33-31 Giants, so a good pair of predictions.
IND 19 (-3)
MIA 13
Not quite what I expected, by the Colts won by 4, so a pair of good predictions. That puts this week's results at 8-7 picking winners, 10-6 against the spread. (If I did the math right, which I did plenty of times last week.)
Last week, Predictabot was 13-2 straight up and 8-8 against the spread. That puts it at 21-9 (70%) picking winners, and 18-14 (56%) against the spread for the year.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
2009 Week two
Predicted scores for 2009 week 2:
CAR 17
ATL 19 (-6)
Predictabot doesn't understand how bad Jake Delhomme is. If it were me, I'd take Atlanta.
MIN 34 (-10)
DET 9
No arguments here.
CIN 10
GNB 31 (-9.5)
Or here.
ARI 31
JAC 26 (-3)
This one could be interesting. Can Arizona recover or was the playoff run last year an aberration for the perennial losers?
OAK 16
KAN 16 (-3)
Too close to call, but I think the Raiders might be able to get a few things going this year, so I'd probably pick them to "upset".
NWE 26 (-3.5)
NYJ 23
I could see this going either way. A rookie QB beating the undefeated Patriots? That'll never happen. (see 2004, Week 9ish).
NOR 24
PHI 35 (PICK)
This one is up in the air to me. I think New Orleans will put up some points, but can the Eagles defense have a second giant week? I think a lack of McNabb will push this a lot toward the Saints.
HOU 13
TEN 30 (-6.5)
The Titans will be hungry to avenge the loss last week, and Houston still doesn't have it together.
STL 3
WAS 21 (-9.5)
No argument here.
TAM 17
BUF 13 (-5)
Buffalo might surprise here. I'm a little surprised to see them so favored, but they were ahead against the Patriots for a lot of the game. I'm expecting Leftwich to do some damage.
SEA 14
SFO 21 (-1.5)
Is it the start of a new Niner domination? No..it's just the NFC West.
PIT 21 (-3)
CHI 10
This feels pretty right to me. I don't see the Steelers racking up tons of points given the OL situation, but maybe the Bears LB injuries will soften things up. I think that with Polamalu out of the lineup it may well be a closer game.
CLE 19
DEN 24 (-3)
Wins the "No one will care about this game in December" award for the week.
BAL 26
SDG 24 (-3)
This one could be a humdinger. San Diego looked entirely mortal against the Raiders, but the Ravens nearly choked to a bottom-rung team with a backup QB last week. My gut is telling me the Ravens will pull this one out, but PredictaBot feels otherwise.
NYG 30
DAL 21 (-3)
Dallas dropping to 0-2? Could it be?(EDIT: No, since they won last week. Regardless, I still like the Giants here) The Giants are looking solid, but the Cowboys can put up some yards. Will Romo have time against the Giant's pass rush? I'm agreeing with PredictaBot because I hate the Cowboys.
IND 19 (-3)
MIA 13
I doubt this will be as close as this. I think the MNF game will be a 30-3 type stinker for the Colts.
CAR 17
ATL 19 (-6)
Predictabot doesn't understand how bad Jake Delhomme is. If it were me, I'd take Atlanta.
MIN 34 (-10)
DET 9
No arguments here.
CIN 10
GNB 31 (-9.5)
Or here.
ARI 31
JAC 26 (-3)
This one could be interesting. Can Arizona recover or was the playoff run last year an aberration for the perennial losers?
OAK 16
KAN 16 (-3)
Too close to call, but I think the Raiders might be able to get a few things going this year, so I'd probably pick them to "upset".
NWE 26 (-3.5)
NYJ 23
I could see this going either way. A rookie QB beating the undefeated Patriots? That'll never happen. (see 2004, Week 9ish).
NOR 24
PHI 35 (PICK)
This one is up in the air to me. I think New Orleans will put up some points, but can the Eagles defense have a second giant week? I think a lack of McNabb will push this a lot toward the Saints.
HOU 13
TEN 30 (-6.5)
The Titans will be hungry to avenge the loss last week, and Houston still doesn't have it together.
STL 3
WAS 21 (-9.5)
No argument here.
TAM 17
BUF 13 (-5)
Buffalo might surprise here. I'm a little surprised to see them so favored, but they were ahead against the Patriots for a lot of the game. I'm expecting Leftwich to do some damage.
SEA 14
SFO 21 (-1.5)
Is it the start of a new Niner domination? No..it's just the NFC West.
PIT 21 (-3)
CHI 10
This feels pretty right to me. I don't see the Steelers racking up tons of points given the OL situation, but maybe the Bears LB injuries will soften things up. I think that with Polamalu out of the lineup it may well be a closer game.
CLE 19
DEN 24 (-3)
Wins the "No one will care about this game in December" award for the week.
BAL 26
SDG 24 (-3)
This one could be a humdinger. San Diego looked entirely mortal against the Raiders, but the Ravens nearly choked to a bottom-rung team with a backup QB last week. My gut is telling me the Ravens will pull this one out, but PredictaBot feels otherwise.
NYG 30
DAL 21 (-3)
Dallas dropping to 0-2? Could it be?(EDIT: No, since they won last week. Regardless, I still like the Giants here) The Giants are looking solid, but the Cowboys can put up some yards. Will Romo have time against the Giant's pass rush? I'm agreeing with PredictaBot because I hate the Cowboys.
IND 19 (-3)
MIA 13
I doubt this will be as close as this. I think the MNF game will be a 30-3 type stinker for the Colts.
Monday, September 14, 2009
2009 Week One prediction results
TEN 10
PIT 16 (-6.5)
The final score was 13-10 Steelers, so correct picks on win, against the spread, and a pretty close prediction to boot.
MIA 13
ATL 19 (-4)
Final was 19-7 Atlanta, so again, correct picks for the win, against the spread, and I think a pretty close prediction.
KAN 6
BAL 37 (-13)
The final here was a lot closer than predicted... 38-24 Ravens, but enough that again all of the predictions were correct.
PHI 23 (-2.5)
CAR 19
This was a blowout, 38-10 for the Eagles, but again all correct predictions.
DEN 21
CIN 19 (-4)
And after four perfect predictions, we finally miss out against the spread here, as the final was 12-7 Denver.
NYJ 28
HOU 28 (-4.5)
To close for the system to call, but the Jets blowout turned this into a bad prediction all around. The spread call was wrong, but since no winner was predicted, no hurt no foul.
DET 14
NOR 38 (-13)
The final here was a more outrageous 45-27 for the Saints, and I think the system would have predicted a higher score if it was allowed to. The predictions were all correct though.
DAL 17 (-6)
TAM 23
Our second big miss, although since Dallas won 34-21 the winning prediction was wrong, the call to go for Dallas and the points would have won. Out of eight games, this puts the system at 6-2 predicting both winners and vs the spread.
JAC 10
IND 28 (-7)
Colts won 14-12, so the winner was right, but the call against the spread was wrong.
MIN 21 (-4)
CLE 7
Minnesota won, 34-20, so both predictions are correct.
SFO 23
ARI 37 (-6.5)
A double-miss here, with Arizona falling flat, losing 20-16 to the Niners.
WAS 6
NYG 27 (-6.5)
The final here was 23-17 Redskins, so the winning prediction was right, but the spread prediction was wrong.
STL 9
SEA 24 (-8.5)
Seattle won this one 28-0, so both predictions were correct.
CHI 21
GNB 27 (-3.5)
The final difference was by 6, 21-15 Packers, but not quite as high as predicted. Still, another pair of correct predictions.
BUF 13
NWE 27 (-11)
The Patriots pulled out a win, but only by one, 25-24, so the prediction split again.
SDG 30 (-9.5)
OAK 10
The surprising Raiders made it close, but the Chargers won 24-20. This is a correct winning prediction, but a loser against the spread.
So, for the first week, that puts it at 13-2 (discounting the game without a winner predicted) picking the winners straight up, and 8-8 against the spread. (Edited, as I had miscounted the results.)
2009 Week one
Even though this is published after the weekend's games, these are the predictions from before the start of the year:
TEN 10
PIT 16 (-6.5)
MIA 13
ATL 19 (-4)
KAN 6
BAL 37 (-13)
PHI 23 (-2.5)
CAR 19
DEN 21
CIN 19 (-4)
NYJ 28
HOU 28 (-4.5)
DET 14
NOR 38 (-13)
DAL 17 (-6)
TAM 23
JAC 10
IND 28 (-7)
MIN 21 (-4)
CLE 7
SFO 23
ARI 37 (-6.5)
WAS 6
NYG 27 (-6.5)
STL 9
SEA 24 (-8.5)
CHI 21
GNB 27 (-3.5)
BUF 13
NWE 27 (-11)
SDG 30 (-9.5)
OAK 10
2008 End of Regular Season
This is the average offensive, defensive, and combined ratings at the end of the 2008 regular season.
"Avg Off" and "Avg Def" indicate how much better that team does at that stat compared with its opponent's averages. That is, the Steelers averaged allowing 7.1 points fewer per game than their opponents had scored on average. A negative value means the team has done worse than other teams their opponents have faced.
The "Combined" rating is just the other two added together, and is how the teams are ranked. Further commentary is below the table.
Due to the lack of data for the new year, these final ratings are used for early predictions the following year. Predictions for weeks one and two of each new season are almost entirely based on the previous year's ratings.
The Steelers, who eventually won the Superbowl, had the best combined rating at the end of the regular season. The Cardinals, who almost upset them, were all the way down at #19, and would have been the worst ranked team to ever win the Superbowl.
Also of note, the worst team in the league was actually the Rams, not the 0-16 Lions. The Rams combined were slightly worse, although both were atrocious. This makes it look as though the top five teams were all pretty close.
For the most part, you can see a pretty direct correlation between the combined rating and the record of the team. Of course, since those ratings are derived from points, you'd expect them to match up fairly well.
Of note is that the Saints had the best-rated offense, but due to their weak defense, they were brought down. If they could strengthen their defense in 2009 they could be a significant threat.
"Avg Off" and "Avg Def" indicate how much better that team does at that stat compared with its opponent's averages. That is, the Steelers averaged allowing 7.1 points fewer per game than their opponents had scored on average. A negative value means the team has done worse than other teams their opponents have faced.
The "Combined" rating is just the other two added together, and is how the teams are ranked. Further commentary is below the table.
Due to the lack of data for the new year, these final ratings are used for early predictions the following year. Predictions for weeks one and two of each new season are almost entirely based on the previous year's ratings.
| Team | Wins | Losses | Avg Off | Avg Def | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 12 | 4 | 1.7 | 7.1 | 8.8 |
| Ravens | 11 | 5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 8.6 |
| Giants | 12 | 4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 8.0 |
| Titans | 13 | 3 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 7.7 |
| Eagles | 9.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 7.6 |
| Panthers | 12 | 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 5.6 |
| Chargers | 8 | 8 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 5.5 |
| Colts | 12 | 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 5.5 |
| Patriots | 11 | 5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 5.2 |
| Saints | 8 | 8 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 4.0 |
| Falcons | 11 | 5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| Vikings | 10 | 6 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| Packers | 6 | 10 | 3.5 | -1.3 | 2.2 |
| Buccaneers | 9 | 7 | -1.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Jets | 9 | 7 | 2.6 | -1.1 | 1.5 |
| Bears | 9 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Dolphins | 11 | 5 | -1.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Cowboys | 9 | 7 | 1.9 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| Cardinals | 9 | 7 | 4.4 | -5.2 | -0.8 |
| Texans | 8 | 8 | 2.3 | -3.8 | -1.5 |
| Redskins | 8 | 8 | -5.5 | 3.4 | -2.1 |
| Bills | 7 | 9 | -2.3 | 0.1 | -2.2 |
| Jaguars | 5 | 11 | -2.2 | -1.3 | -3.5 |
| 49ers | 7 | 9 | -2.4 | -1.9 | -4.3 |
| Broncos | 8 | 8 | 0.6 | -5.9 | -5.3 |
| Browns | 4 | 12 | -5.0 | -0.5 | -5.5 |
| Seahawks | 4 | 12 | -4.3 | -2.1 | -6.4 |
| Raiders | 5 | 11 | -6.2 | -0.5 | -6.7 |
| Bengals | 4.5 | 11.5 | -6.7 | -1.2 | -7.9 |
| Chiefs | 2 | 14 | -3.9 | -4.7 | -8.6 |
| Lions | 0 | 16 | -4.6 | -8.9 | -13.5 |
| Rams | 2 | 14 | -7.5 | -6.2 | -13.7 |
The Steelers, who eventually won the Superbowl, had the best combined rating at the end of the regular season. The Cardinals, who almost upset them, were all the way down at #19, and would have been the worst ranked team to ever win the Superbowl.
Also of note, the worst team in the league was actually the Rams, not the 0-16 Lions. The Rams combined were slightly worse, although both were atrocious. This makes it look as though the top five teams were all pretty close.
For the most part, you can see a pretty direct correlation between the combined rating and the record of the team. Of course, since those ratings are derived from points, you'd expect them to match up fairly well.
Of note is that the Saints had the best-rated offense, but due to their weak defense, they were brought down. If they could strengthen their defense in 2009 they could be a significant threat.
What is PredictaBot?
I've been a member of an online Steelers community for about fifteen years now, and a long time ago another member rated teams based not just on their records, but the number of wins of teams they had beaten. I thought it was interesting, and started working on a system to automate it. I had always thought that there was a little too much "emotion" in ranking teams. Multiple losses by a "good" team could be written off until all of a sudden they were recognized as falling apart. The system used a minimum of data to get all of its results. In fact, all it uses are the points scored and allowed for each game.
This eventually led to a program I had jokingly called "Big Blue", which I used for years to make predictions of NFL games. However, the predictions weren't all that amazing, and personally I liked looking at some of the data analysis more than the prediction aspect. It was mostly just something entertaining to do to look ahead to the next week's games.
Recently I overhauled the system, added 40 years of historical data, and basically re-wrote the entire thing. As a result of the analysis, I came up with some interesting results. Rather than just continue to send them in email, I decided to put up the blog so I can put in articles as well as weekly updates.
So, after all that, what really is the system and how does it work?
All in all, it's relatively simple. After each game, a team gains points that affect it's rating in terms of win toughness, offensive output, and allowed points. For offense and defense, the team merely gains or loses points based on how well they did against an opponent compared with what that opponent usually does. So, if a team scores 20 points against a team that normally allows 14, they gain six points for their offensive rating. Similarly, if they allow 24 points to a team that normally scores 20, they would lose four points from their defensive rating. The win toughness simply adds points for wins as well as the number of wins their opponent has. Beating a team with a lot of victories is a key measure of success, and is in fact the best correlation I've found to predict Superbowl winners. Almost 2/3 of the eventual Superbowl winners had the #1 or #2 "winrating" at the end of the regular season.
Those ratings are the basis for everything else. When two teams are scheduled to meet, their offensive and defensive scores are compared, home field advantage is applied, and a predicted score results. I'll provide more details later, but after looking at about 30 years worth of betting results, the program would have resulted in reasonably good performance. That is, betting $100 a game since the late 70s would have "only" lost you about $5000 dollars by now. Let's face it, if this system produced results that beat the odds, I wouldn't be posting about it.
Anyway, I don't take any of this too seriously. It's mostly just an excuse to think about football more. I should also point out that being a Steelers fan, there will be a focus on them and their divisional opponents.
This eventually led to a program I had jokingly called "Big Blue", which I used for years to make predictions of NFL games. However, the predictions weren't all that amazing, and personally I liked looking at some of the data analysis more than the prediction aspect. It was mostly just something entertaining to do to look ahead to the next week's games.
Recently I overhauled the system, added 40 years of historical data, and basically re-wrote the entire thing. As a result of the analysis, I came up with some interesting results. Rather than just continue to send them in email, I decided to put up the blog so I can put in articles as well as weekly updates.
So, after all that, what really is the system and how does it work?
All in all, it's relatively simple. After each game, a team gains points that affect it's rating in terms of win toughness, offensive output, and allowed points. For offense and defense, the team merely gains or loses points based on how well they did against an opponent compared with what that opponent usually does. So, if a team scores 20 points against a team that normally allows 14, they gain six points for their offensive rating. Similarly, if they allow 24 points to a team that normally scores 20, they would lose four points from their defensive rating. The win toughness simply adds points for wins as well as the number of wins their opponent has. Beating a team with a lot of victories is a key measure of success, and is in fact the best correlation I've found to predict Superbowl winners. Almost 2/3 of the eventual Superbowl winners had the #1 or #2 "winrating" at the end of the regular season.
Those ratings are the basis for everything else. When two teams are scheduled to meet, their offensive and defensive scores are compared, home field advantage is applied, and a predicted score results. I'll provide more details later, but after looking at about 30 years worth of betting results, the program would have resulted in reasonably good performance. That is, betting $100 a game since the late 70s would have "only" lost you about $5000 dollars by now. Let's face it, if this system produced results that beat the odds, I wouldn't be posting about it.
Anyway, I don't take any of this too seriously. It's mostly just an excuse to think about football more. I should also point out that being a Steelers fan, there will be a focus on them and their divisional opponents.
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