Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 16:
Game: Chargers (12-3) @ Titans (7-8)
Predicted score: Chargers 21, Titans 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Titans by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Chargers 42, Titans 17
Actual winner: Chargers by 25
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
I was surprised to see this predicted as a tie, as I expected the Chargers to crush the Titans (as they did). Still, apparently Vegas was also confused since it had the Titans favored.
Game: Bills (5-9) @ Falcons (7-7)
Predicted score: Bills 16, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 5
Confidence of victory: 66.1%
Favorite: Falcons by 9
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 61.2%
A game that probably means nothing for the post-season.
Game: Chiefs (3-11) @ Bengals (9-5)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Bengals 24
Predicted winner: Bengals by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.3%
Favorite: Bengals by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 65.7%
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bengals cover here, but historically, going with the underdog is a safer bet.
Game: Raiders (5-9) @ Browns (3-11)
Predicted score: Raiders 17, Browns 20
Predicted winner: Browns by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Browns by 3
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 43.8%
The only people who care are Browns fans who were embroiled in a bitter Frye vs Anderson argument a year or two ago. And not even them.
Game: Seahawks (5-9) @ Packers (9-5)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Packers 24
Predicted winner: Packers by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Packers by 14
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 67.7%
I suspect the Packers will come out and crush the Seahawks, and I suspect they might even cover. Still, a 14 points spread is pretty significant.
Game: Texans (7-7) @ Dolphins (7-7)
Predicted score: Texans 20, Dolphins 23
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Dolphins by 1.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 58.0%
Interesting AFC playoff game here. Pretty much, the 7-7 teams that win out have a shot, but any loss will likely doom you. The Dolphins winning will help the Steelers (since the Steelers need to beat them next week to stay alive).
Game: Panthers (6-8) @ Giants (8-6)
Predicted score: Panthers 17, Giants 23
Predicted winner: Giants by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.6%
Favorite: Giants by 8
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 56.0%
This is one where I'd bet on the Giants.
Game: Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots (9-5)
Predicted score: Jaguars 16, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Patriots by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 57.3%
I have to root for the Patriots to deal a loss to the Jaguars to help out the Steelers.
Game: Buccaneers (2-12) @ Saints (13-1)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 16, Saints 27
Predicted winner: Saints by 11
Confidence of victory: 78.8%
Favorite: Saints by 14
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 55.5%
The Saints will probably come out blazing to avenge the loss, but a smarter play is to leave the starters in for a half and then evaluate your backups.
Game: Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles (10-4)
Predicted score: Broncos 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Eagles by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Goooooo Eagles! A Broncos loss here would be a huge benefit to both the Steelers and the Ravens, as they both have tiebreakers over the Broncos.
Game: Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 54.6%
This is almost a playoff game for both teams, and I hope they play like it. Both secondaries are in really bad shape, but I think the Steelers have a better offense. Predictabot disagrees, giving the Ravens a significant nod on both offense and defense. However, factoring in everything, and the home field advantage, it's too close to call.
Game: Rams (1-13) @ Cardinals (9-5)
Predicted score: Rams 14, Cardinals 24
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.9%
Favorite: Cardinals by 15
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 61.3%
Another game that could go either way, but historically when the spread is real high, the underdog is usually a safer bet.
Game: Lions (2-12) @ 49ers (6-8)
Predicted score: Lions 16, 49ers 24
Predicted winner: 49ers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.3%
Favorite: 49ers by 14
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Sorry, no one cares.
Game: Jets (7-7) @ Colts (14-0)
Predicted score: Jets 14, Colts 21
Predicted winner: Colts by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Colts by 4
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 56.4%
The Jets draw a tough ending to try to keep their hopes alive, but unless the Colts really don't care about going undefeated (and I think they do), I see them trying to win out.
Game: Cowboys (9-5) @ Redskins (4-10)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Redskins 17
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Cowboys by 7
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 69.7%
My interest in the Redskins dropped now that I am free to play Packers in my fantasy leagues again. I can return to my ignorant state of not knowing or caring how Jason Campbell and Fred Davis are doing.
Game: Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Bears 20
Predicted winner: Vikings by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 67.6%
The Vikings have been the target of a lot of talk this week. I think it could be interesting how they respond. Personally, I think Favre is gonna go nuts and throw for four touchdowns.
Correct bet predictions: 1-0
Saturday, December 26, 2009
2009 Week fifteen Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
Current playoff seeds:
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Bengals
4 : Patriots
5 : Ravens
6 : Broncos
7 : Jaguars
8 : Dolphins
9 : Steelers
10 : Jets
11 : Titans
12 : Texans
13 : Raiders
14 : Bills
15 : Browns
16 : Chiefs
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Vikings
3 : Eagles
4 : Cardinals
5 : Packers
6 : Cowboys
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : Panthers
10 : 49ers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Buccaneers
15 : Lions
16 : Rams
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | Colts | 14 | 0 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 10.2 |
| 80 | Saints | 13 | 1 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -0.8 | 11.5 |
| 75 | Patriots | 9 | 5 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 9.8 |
| 73 | Ravens | 8 | 6 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 9.1 |
| 69 | Vikings | 11 | 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 6.6 |
| 69 | Chargers | 11 | 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 6.1 |
| 68 | Eagles | 10 | 4 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 7.1 |
| 68 | Cowboys | 9 | 5 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| 63 | Bengals | 9 | 5 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| 61 | Broncos | 8 | 6 | 2.4 | -1.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 60 | Packers | 9 | 5 | 2.1 | 4.6 | -0.1 | 4.5 |
| 60 | Jets | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | -1.7 | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| 59 | Cardinals | 9 | 5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| 58 | Giants | 8 | 6 | 2.4 | 6.3 | -2.2 | 4.1 |
| 56 | Falcons | 7 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 55 | 49ers | 6 | 8 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 54 | Texans | 7 | 7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| 52 | Dolphins | 7 | 7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | -1.5 | 0.9 |
| 51 | Steelers | 7 | 7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 48 | Titans | 7 | 7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | -3.1 | -0.7 |
| 48 | Panthers | 6 | 8 | 0.1 | -3.1 | 1.9 | -1.2 |
| 43 | Jaguars | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | -2.6 | -1.7 | -4.3 |
| 39 | Bills | 5 | 9 | -1.4 | -5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 |
| 37 | Bears | 5 | 9 | -1.2 | -3.4 | -1.1 | -4.5 |
| 34 | Redskins | 4 | 10 | -2.8 | -5.6 | 0.4 | -5.2 |
| 31 | Raiders | 5 | 9 | -0.6 | -8.1 | -1.6 | -9.7 |
| 31 | Seahawks | 5 | 9 | -1.7 | -3.9 | -3.0 | -6.9 |
| 25 | Browns | 3 | 11 | -2.9 | -6.2 | -3.0 | -9.2 |
| 23 | Buccaneers | 2 | 12 | -3.9 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -8.5 |
| 19 | Chiefs | 3 | 11 | -3.3 | -3.9 | -6.4 | -10.3 |
| 12 | Lions | 2 | 12 | -3.7 | -4.3 | -8.6 | -12.8 |
| 10 | Rams | 1 | 13 | -4.8 | -10.6 | -4.3 | -14.9 |
Notes for the week:
- The Colts remain safely on top, and if I were calling it today I think I'd pick them to win it all this year. They have a clear "Winrating" superiority which has historically been the best indicator of Superbowl winners.
- The Steelers didn't gain very much overall, but they did gain almost a full point in their offensive rating.
- The Ravens ended up sliding a little, but so did the Bengals. The AFC North could just end up sending three teams to the playoffs, even though the Steelers don't deserve it.
Current playoff seeds:
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Bengals
4 : Patriots
5 : Ravens
6 : Broncos
7 : Jaguars
8 : Dolphins
9 : Steelers
10 : Jets
11 : Titans
12 : Texans
13 : Raiders
14 : Bills
15 : Browns
16 : Chiefs
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Vikings
3 : Eagles
4 : Cardinals
5 : Packers
6 : Cowboys
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : Panthers
10 : 49ers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Buccaneers
15 : Lions
16 : Rams
2009 Week fifteen prediction results
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 15:
Game: Colts (14-0) @ Jaguars (7-7)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Jaguars 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Colts by 3
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Colts 35, Jaguars 31
Actual winner: Colts by 4
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Off by 14, but the predicted margin was right.
Game: Cowboys (9-5) @ Saints (13-1)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Saints 24
Predicted winner: Saints by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Saints by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 54.5%
Actual score: Cowboys 24, Saints 17
Actual winner: Cowboys by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Well, you had to figure the Saints would lose sometimes. Let's see how they respond now that the pressure is off a little.
Game: Bears (5-9) @ Ravens (8-6)
Predicted score: Bears 16, Ravens 23
Predicted winner: Ravens by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Ravens by 11
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 61.0%
Actual score: Bears 7, Ravens 31
Actual winner: Ravens by 24
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Wow, the Ravens went crazy on the Bears. Goddamn Ravens.
Game: Patriots (9-5) @ Bills (5-9)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Patriots by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Patriots by 7
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 59.2%
Actual score: Patriots 17, Bills 10
Actual winner: Patriots by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Just squeaked in under the wire here, but a pair of good predictions.
Game: Cardinals (9-5) @ Lions (2-12)
Predicted score: Cardinals 23, Lions 20
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Cardinals by 12.5
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 73.8%
Actual score: Cardinals 31, Lions 24
Actual winner: Cardinals by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (3-11)
Predicted score: Browns 17, Chiefs 21
Predicted winner: Chiefs by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Chiefs by 2
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 57.4%
Actual score: Browns 41, Chiefs 34
Actual winner: Browns by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
What a terrible, terrible game.
Game: Falcons (7-7) @ Jets (7-7)
Predicted score: Falcons 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Jets by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 53.4%
Actual score: Falcons 10, Jets 7
Actual winner: Falcons by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Another game that was predicted very close to the spread, and ended up on the right side.
Game: 49ers (6-8) @ Eagles (10-4)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Eagles by 7.5
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Actual score: 49ers 13, Eagles 27
Actual winner: Eagles by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Way off here. The Eagles are angry birds.
Game: Packers (9-5) @ Steelers (7-7)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 2
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.6%
Actual score: Packers 36, Steelers 37
Actual winner: Steelers by 1
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Well, it's hard to argue that this game couldn't have gone either way.
Game: Texans (7-7) @ Rams (1-13)
Predicted score: Texans 21, Rams 17
Predicted winner: Texans by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Texans by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 75.3%
Actual score: Texans 16, Rams 13
Actual winner: Texans by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Dolphins (7-7) @ Titans (7-7)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Titans by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 51.5%
Actual score: Dolphins 24, Titans 27
Actual winner: Titans by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Nice close prediction, just sneaking in that thin margin.
Game: Raiders (5-9) @ Broncos (8-6)
Predicted score: Raiders 13, Broncos 21
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.3%
Favorite: Broncos by 14
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Raiders 20, Broncos 19
Actual winner: Raiders by 1
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Another one this week where the predicted loser is expected to at least be close enough, and it's been adding up.
Game: Bengals (9-5) @ Chargers (11-3)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Chargers 21
Predicted winner: Chargers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Chargers by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Actual score: Bengals 24, Chargers 27
Actual winner: Chargers by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
I'll take it.
Game: Buccaneers (2-12) @ Seahawks (5-9)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 17, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.6%
Favorite: Seahawks by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 51.3%
Actual score: Buccaneers 24, Seahawks 7
Actual winner: Buccaneers by 17
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
The Bucs took everyone by surprise, but the Seahawks sure are bad.
Game: Vikings (11-3) @ Panthers (6-8)
Predicted score: Vikings 20, Panthers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Vikings by 9
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 74.9%
Actual score: Vikings 7, Panthers 26
Actual winner: Panthers by 19
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Speaking of surprises, here are your 6-8 Carolina Panthers. If Jake Delhomme is the QB next year, get used to it.
Game: Giants (8-6) @ Redskins (4-10)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Redskins 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Giants by 3
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Giants 45, Redskins 12
Actual winner: Giants by 33
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I'm not really sure why this was predicted as a tie, but the Giants are waking up after a mid-season snooze.
Correct winning predictions: 8-5
Correct bet predictions: 12-4
A pretty good week, although a rare case of the spread predictions being well ahead of the winning predictions,
Game: Colts (14-0) @ Jaguars (7-7)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Jaguars 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Colts by 3
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Colts 35, Jaguars 31
Actual winner: Colts by 4
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Off by 14, but the predicted margin was right.
Game: Cowboys (9-5) @ Saints (13-1)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Saints 24
Predicted winner: Saints by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Saints by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 54.5%
Actual score: Cowboys 24, Saints 17
Actual winner: Cowboys by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Well, you had to figure the Saints would lose sometimes. Let's see how they respond now that the pressure is off a little.
Game: Bears (5-9) @ Ravens (8-6)
Predicted score: Bears 16, Ravens 23
Predicted winner: Ravens by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.8%
Favorite: Ravens by 11
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 61.0%
Actual score: Bears 7, Ravens 31
Actual winner: Ravens by 24
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Wow, the Ravens went crazy on the Bears. Goddamn Ravens.
Game: Patriots (9-5) @ Bills (5-9)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Patriots by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Patriots by 7
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 59.2%
Actual score: Patriots 17, Bills 10
Actual winner: Patriots by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Just squeaked in under the wire here, but a pair of good predictions.
Game: Cardinals (9-5) @ Lions (2-12)
Predicted score: Cardinals 23, Lions 20
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Cardinals by 12.5
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 73.8%
Actual score: Cardinals 31, Lions 24
Actual winner: Cardinals by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (3-11)
Predicted score: Browns 17, Chiefs 21
Predicted winner: Chiefs by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Chiefs by 2
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 57.4%
Actual score: Browns 41, Chiefs 34
Actual winner: Browns by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
What a terrible, terrible game.
Game: Falcons (7-7) @ Jets (7-7)
Predicted score: Falcons 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Jets by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 53.4%
Actual score: Falcons 10, Jets 7
Actual winner: Falcons by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Another game that was predicted very close to the spread, and ended up on the right side.
Game: 49ers (6-8) @ Eagles (10-4)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Eagles by 7.5
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Actual score: 49ers 13, Eagles 27
Actual winner: Eagles by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Way off here. The Eagles are angry birds.
Game: Packers (9-5) @ Steelers (7-7)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 2
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.6%
Actual score: Packers 36, Steelers 37
Actual winner: Steelers by 1
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Well, it's hard to argue that this game couldn't have gone either way.
Game: Texans (7-7) @ Rams (1-13)
Predicted score: Texans 21, Rams 17
Predicted winner: Texans by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Texans by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 75.3%
Actual score: Texans 16, Rams 13
Actual winner: Texans by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Dolphins (7-7) @ Titans (7-7)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Titans by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 51.5%
Actual score: Dolphins 24, Titans 27
Actual winner: Titans by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Nice close prediction, just sneaking in that thin margin.
Game: Raiders (5-9) @ Broncos (8-6)
Predicted score: Raiders 13, Broncos 21
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.3%
Favorite: Broncos by 14
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Raiders 20, Broncos 19
Actual winner: Raiders by 1
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Another one this week where the predicted loser is expected to at least be close enough, and it's been adding up.
Game: Bengals (9-5) @ Chargers (11-3)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Chargers 21
Predicted winner: Chargers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Chargers by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Actual score: Bengals 24, Chargers 27
Actual winner: Chargers by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
I'll take it.
Game: Buccaneers (2-12) @ Seahawks (5-9)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 17, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.6%
Favorite: Seahawks by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 51.3%
Actual score: Buccaneers 24, Seahawks 7
Actual winner: Buccaneers by 17
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
The Bucs took everyone by surprise, but the Seahawks sure are bad.
Game: Vikings (11-3) @ Panthers (6-8)
Predicted score: Vikings 20, Panthers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Vikings by 9
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 74.9%
Actual score: Vikings 7, Panthers 26
Actual winner: Panthers by 19
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Speaking of surprises, here are your 6-8 Carolina Panthers. If Jake Delhomme is the QB next year, get used to it.
Game: Giants (8-6) @ Redskins (4-10)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Redskins 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Giants by 3
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Giants 45, Redskins 12
Actual winner: Giants by 33
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I'm not really sure why this was predicted as a tie, but the Giants are waking up after a mid-season snooze.
Correct winning predictions: 8-5
Correct bet predictions: 12-4
A pretty good week, although a rare case of the spread predictions being well ahead of the winning predictions,
Friday, December 18, 2009
2009 Week fifteen
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 15
Game: Colts (14-0) @ Jaguars (7-7)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Jaguars 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Colts by 3
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Colts 35, Jaguars 31
Actual winner: Colts by 4
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Well, this one turned out well.
Game: Cowboys (8-5) @ Saints (13-0)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Saints 24
Predicted winner: Saints by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Saints by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 54.5%
Wow, a real close prediction here against the spread.
Game: Bears (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)
Predicted score: Bears 16, Ravens 23
Predicted winner: Ravens by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Ravens by 11
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 61.0%
I have to really hope for a Bears upset here. The Steelers need every bit of help they can get.
Game: Patriots (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Patriots by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Patriots by 7
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 59.1%
I won't be surprised to see the Patriots cover easily here.
Game: Cardinals (8-5) @ Lions (2-11)
Predicted score: Cardinals 23, Lions 20
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 12.5
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 73.7%
I think this is going to be a good game for Warner as they solidify their position.
Game: Browns (2-11) @ Chiefs (3-10)
Predicted score: Browns 17, Chiefs 21
Predicted winner: Chiefs by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Chiefs by 2
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 57.3%
Wake me when it's over.
Game: Falcons (6-7) @ Jets (7-6)
Predicted score: Falcons 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Jets by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 53.4%
Another one where the prediction is very close to the spread. If I was a betting man, I'd avoid ones this close.
Game: 49ers (6-7) @ Eagles (9-4)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Eagles by 7.5
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 62.8%
It's probably too late for the Niners, and the Eagles might have a shot at catching up to the Vikings for a bye.
Game: Packers (9-4) @ Steelers (6-7)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 2
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.6%
Like last week, the Packers are not predicted to win against a team with 3+ more losses than they have. Strange.
Game: Texans (6-7) @ Rams (1-12)
Predicted score: Texans 21, Rams 17
Predicted winner: Texans by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Texans by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 75.2%
Time for the Rams to have a late season win streak to mess up their draft position?
Game: Dolphins (7-6) @ Titans (6-7)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Titans by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 51.5%
Third game this week where the Predictabot predicted score and the favorite are within half a point.
Game: Raiders (4-9) @ Broncos (8-5)
Predicted score: Raiders 13, Broncos 21
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Broncos by 14
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 65.8%
It probably doesn't matter, but since the Broncos are a likely wild card team I need to root for them to lose to help the Steelers.
Game: Bengals (9-4) @ Chargers (10-3)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Chargers 21
Predicted winner: Chargers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Chargers by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.1%
This could be an interesting matchup that we could easily see in the divisional round of the playoffs. We'll see how the Bengals respond to the loss of Henry.
Game: Buccaneers (1-12) @ Seahawks (5-8)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 17, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Seahawks by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 51.3%
And with the first pick in the 2010 NFL draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select...
Game: Vikings (11-2) @ Panthers (5-8)
Predicted score: Vikings 20, Panthers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Vikings by 9
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 74.9%
A strangely conservative call here. Predictabot doesn't seem to like the Vikings or Packers.
Game: Giants (7-6) @ Redskins (4-9)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Redskins 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Giants by 3
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 54.6%
The Giants are fighting for a playoff spot now, but they need help to get there.
Correct winning predictions: 1-0
Correct bet predictions: 1-0
Game: Colts (14-0) @ Jaguars (7-7)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Jaguars 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Colts by 3
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Colts 35, Jaguars 31
Actual winner: Colts by 4
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Well, this one turned out well.
Game: Cowboys (8-5) @ Saints (13-0)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Saints 24
Predicted winner: Saints by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Saints by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 54.5%
Wow, a real close prediction here against the spread.
Game: Bears (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)
Predicted score: Bears 16, Ravens 23
Predicted winner: Ravens by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Ravens by 11
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 61.0%
I have to really hope for a Bears upset here. The Steelers need every bit of help they can get.
Game: Patriots (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Patriots by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Patriots by 7
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 59.1%
I won't be surprised to see the Patriots cover easily here.
Game: Cardinals (8-5) @ Lions (2-11)
Predicted score: Cardinals 23, Lions 20
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 12.5
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 73.7%
I think this is going to be a good game for Warner as they solidify their position.
Game: Browns (2-11) @ Chiefs (3-10)
Predicted score: Browns 17, Chiefs 21
Predicted winner: Chiefs by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Chiefs by 2
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 57.3%
Wake me when it's over.
Game: Falcons (6-7) @ Jets (7-6)
Predicted score: Falcons 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Jets by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 53.4%
Another one where the prediction is very close to the spread. If I was a betting man, I'd avoid ones this close.
Game: 49ers (6-7) @ Eagles (9-4)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Eagles by 7.5
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 62.8%
It's probably too late for the Niners, and the Eagles might have a shot at catching up to the Vikings for a bye.
Game: Packers (9-4) @ Steelers (6-7)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 2
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.6%
Like last week, the Packers are not predicted to win against a team with 3+ more losses than they have. Strange.
Game: Texans (6-7) @ Rams (1-12)
Predicted score: Texans 21, Rams 17
Predicted winner: Texans by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Texans by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 75.2%
Time for the Rams to have a late season win streak to mess up their draft position?
Game: Dolphins (7-6) @ Titans (6-7)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Titans by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 51.5%
Third game this week where the Predictabot predicted score and the favorite are within half a point.
Game: Raiders (4-9) @ Broncos (8-5)
Predicted score: Raiders 13, Broncos 21
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Broncos by 14
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 65.8%
It probably doesn't matter, but since the Broncos are a likely wild card team I need to root for them to lose to help the Steelers.
Game: Bengals (9-4) @ Chargers (10-3)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Chargers 21
Predicted winner: Chargers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Chargers by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.1%
This could be an interesting matchup that we could easily see in the divisional round of the playoffs. We'll see how the Bengals respond to the loss of Henry.
Game: Buccaneers (1-12) @ Seahawks (5-8)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 17, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Seahawks by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 51.3%
And with the first pick in the 2010 NFL draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select...
Game: Vikings (11-2) @ Panthers (5-8)
Predicted score: Vikings 20, Panthers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Vikings by 9
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 74.9%
A strangely conservative call here. Predictabot doesn't seem to like the Vikings or Packers.
Game: Giants (7-6) @ Redskins (4-9)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Redskins 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Giants by 3
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 54.6%
The Giants are fighting for a playoff spot now, but they need help to get there.
Correct winning predictions: 1-0
Correct bet predictions: 1-0
2009 Week fourteen Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
Current playoff seeds:
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Bengals
4 : Patriots
5 : Broncos
6 : Ravens
7 : Jaguars
8 : Dolphins
9 : Jets
10 : Steelers
11 : Titans
12 : Texans
13 : Bills
14 : Raiders
15 : Chiefs
16 : Browns
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Vikings
3 : Eagles
4 : Cardinals
5 : Packers
6 : Cowboys
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : 49ers
10 : Panthers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Lions
15 : Buccaneers
16 : Rams
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | Colts | 14 | 0 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 10.1 |
| 84 | Saints | 13 | 0 | 6.8 | 12.8 | -0.7 | 12.2 |
| 76 | Patriots | 8 | 5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 10.2 |
| 76 | Vikings | 11 | 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 8.9 |
| 71 | Ravens | 7 | 6 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 8.4 |
| 68 | Chargers | 10 | 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -0.5 | 5.5 |
| 67 | Eagles | 9 | 4 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 6.3 |
| 66 | Broncos | 8 | 5 | 3.1 | -0.6 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| 64 | Bengals | 9 | 4 | 2.9 | -0.7 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| 64 | Packers | 9 | 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 4.9 |
| 63 | Cowboys | 8 | 5 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| 62 | Jets | 7 | 6 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| 61 | Cardinals | 8 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3.0 |
| 58 | 49ers | 6 | 7 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 56 | Texans | 6 | 7 | 1.3 | 3.4 | -0.2 | 3.1 |
| 55 | Dolphins | 7 | 6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | -1.0 | 1.3 |
| 54 | Giants | 7 | 6 | 2.2 | 4.9 | -2.8 | 2.1 |
| 53 | Falcons | 6 | 7 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| 49 | Steelers | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 47 | Titans | 6 | 7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | -3.3 | -0.7 |
| 42 | Panthers | 5 | 8 | -0.8 | -4.2 | 0.7 | -3.5 |
| 42 | Jaguars | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | -2.7 | -1.6 | -4.3 |
| 40 | Bears | 5 | 8 | -0.7 | -2.6 | -0.9 | -3.5 |
| 38 | Redskins | 4 | 9 | -2.1 | -5.6 | 1.6 | -3.9 |
| 37 | Bills | 5 | 8 | -1.2 | -5.5 | 0.3 | -5.2 |
| 36 | Seahawks | 5 | 8 | -0.7 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -5.0 |
| 27 | Raiders | 4 | 9 | -1.2 | -8.6 | -2.0 | -10.6 |
| 24 | Browns | 2 | 11 | -3.1 | -7.4 | -2.1 | -9.5 |
| 22 | Chiefs | 3 | 10 | -2.4 | -4.8 | -5.1 | -9.9 |
| 17 | Buccaneers | 1 | 12 | -4.4 | -6.1 | -4.1 | -10.2 |
| 11 | Lions | 2 | 11 | -3.4 | -4.3 | -8.6 | -12.9 |
| 9 | Rams | 1 | 12 | -4.2 | -10.3 | -5.0 | -15.3 |
Notes for the week:
- Ok, well this chart does include the Colts win over the Jaguars, but the game outcome didn't change their rankings at all. In fact, the Colts dropped slightly because of the close game.
- Not too many shifts here, although the Chargers moved up from 10th to 6th as their streak continues.
- The Ravens remain the top-rated team in the AFC North, although they and the Bengals are both moving toward each other.
- The Steelers are now below a 50 average rating for the first time in quite a long time.
Current playoff seeds:
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Bengals
4 : Patriots
5 : Broncos
6 : Ravens
7 : Jaguars
8 : Dolphins
9 : Jets
10 : Steelers
11 : Titans
12 : Texans
13 : Bills
14 : Raiders
15 : Chiefs
16 : Browns
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Vikings
3 : Eagles
4 : Cardinals
5 : Packers
6 : Cowboys
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : 49ers
10 : Panthers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Lions
15 : Buccaneers
16 : Rams
2009 Week fourteen prediction results
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 14:
Game: Steelers (6-7) @ Browns (2-11)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Steelers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Steelers by 10
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 66.3%
Actual score: Steelers 6, Browns 13
Actual winner: Browns by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Highly disappointing.
Game: Saints (13-0) @ Falcons (6-7)
Predicted score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Saints by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 69.7%
Actual score: Saints 26, Falcons 23
Actual winner: Saints by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
I was pretty pleased with this prediction.
Game: Lions (2-11) @ Ravens (7-6)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Ravens 24
Predicted winner: Ravens by 10
Confidence of victory: 78.2%
Favorite: Ravens by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.7%
Actual score: Lions 3, Ravens 48
Actual winner: Ravens by 45
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Well, the new method doesn't predict many blowouts, and this is one of the side effects...generally, any +10 spreads are likely to be predicted not to cover.
Game: Packers (9-4) @ Bears (5-8)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Bears 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Packers 21, Bears 14
Actual winner: Packers by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Predictabot sure doesn't seem to think much of the Packers for their record, and it cost it this week.
Game: Seahawks (5-8) @ Texans (6-7)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Texans 23
Predicted winner: Texans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Texans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 48.2%
Actual score: Seahawks 7, Texans 34
Actual winner: Texans by 27
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I don't think anyone expected a blowout like that.
Game: Broncos (8-5) @ Colts (13-0)
Predicted score: Broncos 14, Colts 20
Predicted winner: Colts by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 51.3%
Actual score: Broncos 16, Colts 28
Actual winner: Colts by 12
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I'm definitely seeing more of these games where the winner isn't predicted to cover. I suspect the recent changes to the prediction method have made it a little too conservative.
Game: Dolphins (7-6) @ Jaguars (7-6)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 52.2%
Actual score: Dolphins 14, Jaguars 10
Actual winner: Dolphins by 4
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Close, but not terribly accurate.
Game: Bills (5-8) @ Chiefs (3-10)
Predicted score: Bills 20, Chiefs 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Actual score: Bills 16, Chiefs 10
Actual winner: Bills by 6
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Bengals (9-4) @ Vikings (11-2)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Vikings 21
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.1%
Actual score: Bengals 10, Vikings 30
Actual winner: Vikings by 20
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Another winner covers but Predictabot didn't think it would.
Game: Panthers (5-8) @ Patriots (8-5)
Predicted score: Panthers 14, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 9
Confidence of victory: 76.6%
Favorite: Patriots by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 60.5%
Actual score: Panthers 10, Patriots 20
Actual winner: Patriots by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
And here's one that works in our favor.
Game: Jets (7-6) @ Buccaneers (1-12)
Predicted score: Jets 20, Buccaneers 16
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Jets by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Jets 26, Buccaneers 3
Actual winner: Jets by 23
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Rams (1-12) @ Titans (6-7)
Predicted score: Rams 17, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Titans by 13
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 66.2%
Actual score: Rams 7, Titans 47
Actual winner: Titans by 40
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Redskins (4-9) @ Raiders (4-9)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Raiders by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Redskins by 1
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 52.4%
Actual score: Redskins 34, Raiders 13
Actual winner: Redskins by 21
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Chargers (10-3) @ Cowboys (8-5)
Predicted score: Chargers 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Chargers 20, Cowboys 17
Actual winner: Chargers by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Eagles (9-4) @ Giants (7-6)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Giants 21
Predicted winner: Giants by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Eagles
Bet confidence: 48.1%
Actual score: Eagles 45, Giants 38
Actual winner: Eagles by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Cardinals (8-5) @ 49ers (6-7)
Predicted score: Cardinals 17, 49ers 20
Predicted winner: 49ers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 64.4%
Actual score: Cardinals 9, 49ers 24
Actual winner: 49ers by 15
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
A lot of these felt unremarkable. It looks like almost all of them were a split between the win and spread prediction. I suspect we'll need some tuning, but I want to see more data first.
Correct winning predictions: 9-5
Correct bet predictions: 8-8
Game: Steelers (6-7) @ Browns (2-11)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Steelers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Steelers by 10
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 66.3%
Actual score: Steelers 6, Browns 13
Actual winner: Browns by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Highly disappointing.
Game: Saints (13-0) @ Falcons (6-7)
Predicted score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Saints by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 69.7%
Actual score: Saints 26, Falcons 23
Actual winner: Saints by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
I was pretty pleased with this prediction.
Game: Lions (2-11) @ Ravens (7-6)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Ravens 24
Predicted winner: Ravens by 10
Confidence of victory: 78.2%
Favorite: Ravens by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.7%
Actual score: Lions 3, Ravens 48
Actual winner: Ravens by 45
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Well, the new method doesn't predict many blowouts, and this is one of the side effects...generally, any +10 spreads are likely to be predicted not to cover.
Game: Packers (9-4) @ Bears (5-8)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Bears 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Packers 21, Bears 14
Actual winner: Packers by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Predictabot sure doesn't seem to think much of the Packers for their record, and it cost it this week.
Game: Seahawks (5-8) @ Texans (6-7)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Texans 23
Predicted winner: Texans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Texans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 48.2%
Actual score: Seahawks 7, Texans 34
Actual winner: Texans by 27
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I don't think anyone expected a blowout like that.
Game: Broncos (8-5) @ Colts (13-0)
Predicted score: Broncos 14, Colts 20
Predicted winner: Colts by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 51.3%
Actual score: Broncos 16, Colts 28
Actual winner: Colts by 12
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I'm definitely seeing more of these games where the winner isn't predicted to cover. I suspect the recent changes to the prediction method have made it a little too conservative.
Game: Dolphins (7-6) @ Jaguars (7-6)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 52.2%
Actual score: Dolphins 14, Jaguars 10
Actual winner: Dolphins by 4
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Close, but not terribly accurate.
Game: Bills (5-8) @ Chiefs (3-10)
Predicted score: Bills 20, Chiefs 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Actual score: Bills 16, Chiefs 10
Actual winner: Bills by 6
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Bengals (9-4) @ Vikings (11-2)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Vikings 21
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.1%
Actual score: Bengals 10, Vikings 30
Actual winner: Vikings by 20
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Another winner covers but Predictabot didn't think it would.
Game: Panthers (5-8) @ Patriots (8-5)
Predicted score: Panthers 14, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 9
Confidence of victory: 76.6%
Favorite: Patriots by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 60.5%
Actual score: Panthers 10, Patriots 20
Actual winner: Patriots by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
And here's one that works in our favor.
Game: Jets (7-6) @ Buccaneers (1-12)
Predicted score: Jets 20, Buccaneers 16
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Jets by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Jets 26, Buccaneers 3
Actual winner: Jets by 23
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Rams (1-12) @ Titans (6-7)
Predicted score: Rams 17, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Titans by 13
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 66.2%
Actual score: Rams 7, Titans 47
Actual winner: Titans by 40
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Redskins (4-9) @ Raiders (4-9)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Raiders by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Redskins by 1
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 52.4%
Actual score: Redskins 34, Raiders 13
Actual winner: Redskins by 21
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Chargers (10-3) @ Cowboys (8-5)
Predicted score: Chargers 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Chargers 20, Cowboys 17
Actual winner: Chargers by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Eagles (9-4) @ Giants (7-6)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Giants 21
Predicted winner: Giants by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Eagles
Bet confidence: 48.1%
Actual score: Eagles 45, Giants 38
Actual winner: Eagles by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Cardinals (8-5) @ 49ers (6-7)
Predicted score: Cardinals 17, 49ers 20
Predicted winner: 49ers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 64.4%
Actual score: Cardinals 9, 49ers 24
Actual winner: 49ers by 15
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
A lot of these felt unremarkable. It looks like almost all of them were a split between the win and spread prediction. I suspect we'll need some tuning, but I want to see more data first.
Correct winning predictions: 9-5
Correct bet predictions: 8-8
Saturday, December 12, 2009
2009 Week fourteen
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 14:
Game: Steelers (6-6) @ Browns (1-11)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Steelers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Steelers by 10
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 66.4%
I realize this game has already happened when I post this. Just terrible. The loss pretty much eliminates the Steelers from the playoffs, but I'll mention games the rest of the time that have impact.
Game: Saints (12-0) @ Falcons (6-6)
Predicted score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Saints by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 69.6%
Earlier in the year I expected this game to be a huge one in determining the division winner, but instead it's two separate stories. The Saints are still trying to run the table, and the Falcons are scrabbling for a playoff spot.
Game: Lions (2-10) @ Ravens (6-6)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Ravens 24
Predicted winner: Ravens by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.8%
Favorite: Ravens by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.5%
I'm a little surprised by this line after the drubbing of the Ravens by the Packers, and I figure this is my personal upset favorite this week.
For the Steelers to make the playoffs, the Ravens must lose at least one game aside from the remaining game against the Steelers, so I'll be rooting for the Lions here.
Game: Packers (8-4) @ Bears (5-7)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Bears 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 54.6%
The Bears and Packers are too close when factoring in home field advantage. Could be a good'un.
Game: Seahawks (5-7) @ Texans (5-7)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Texans 23
Predicted winner: Texans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Texans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 48.3%
A relatively uncommon time when the prediction matches the line exactly, thus suggesting a pick for the underdog.
Pittsburgh will need Houston out of the way if they have a chance to make the playoffs, so they will need to lose one game. Might as well be this one!
Game: Broncos (8-4) @ Colts (12-0)
Predicted score: Broncos 14, Colts 20
Predicted winner: Colts by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 51.4%
Hmm, not much leeway here. I'm looking forward to this game, as the two teams may well end up in the playoffs against each other (#1 vs #6 seed in the divisional round after the Broncos take out the Bengals?)
For the Steelers to get to the playoffs, there are circumstances under which Denver losses will help (and it may take 3), so let's start here.
Game: Dolphins (6-6) @ Jaguars (7-5)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 52.2%
Two teams still alive in the playoff hunt. This also should be a real good game, I hope.
It also has playoff implications on the Steelers. Hope against the Jaguars in this one, as they may need to lose three of their remaining four.
Game: Bills (4-8) @ Chiefs (3-9)
Predicted score: Bills 20, Chiefs 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Yaaaaawn
Game: Bengals (9-3) @ Vikings (10-2)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Vikings 21
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.2%
This will be hyped by the announcers as a potential Superbowl matchup, but I have a feeling both teams are going to be early playoff exiters.
Game: Panthers (5-7) @ Patriots (7-5)
Predicted score: Panthers 14, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 9
Confidence of victory: 76.4%
Favorite: Patriots by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 60.4%
I doubt this will be much of a thriller. Not much in the way of playoff implications, except the Steelers will need the Patriots to win their division, so a win here keeps them ahead of the Dolphins.
Game: Jets (6-6) @ Buccaneers (1-11)
Predicted score: Jets 20, Buccaneers 16
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Jets by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 49.5%
A *very* close prediction to the line this time, but as you can see the system isn't very confident in the bet.
The Steelers need the Jets to lose at least two more games, so I'll be rooting for an unlikely upset.
Game: Rams (1-11) @ Titans (5-7)
Predicted score: Rams 17, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Titans by 13
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 66.2%
Will the streak continue?
Game: Redskins (3-9) @ Raiders (4-8)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Raiders by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Redskins by 1
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 52.4%
Ugh. this should be a snoozefest. I won't be able to see it anyway, since the Raiders are going to be blacked out.
Game: Chargers (9-3) @ Cowboys (8-4)
Predicted score: Chargers 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Another game that might be hyped as a potential Superbowl matchup. Personally, I think the Chargers are going to win handily.
Game: Eagles (8-4) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Giants 21
Predicted winner: Giants by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Eagles
Bet confidence: 48.1%
This might end up being the deciding factors in the playoffs for the loser.
Game: Cardinals (8-4) @ 49ers (5-7)
Predicted score: Cardinals 17, 49ers 20
Predicted winner: 49ers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 64.4%
The Cardinals get a chance to clinch the division, but Predictabot is expecting an upset. Could be a fun one.
So there we go.
Game: Steelers (6-6) @ Browns (1-11)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Steelers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Steelers by 10
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 66.4%
I realize this game has already happened when I post this. Just terrible. The loss pretty much eliminates the Steelers from the playoffs, but I'll mention games the rest of the time that have impact.
Game: Saints (12-0) @ Falcons (6-6)
Predicted score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Saints by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 69.6%
Earlier in the year I expected this game to be a huge one in determining the division winner, but instead it's two separate stories. The Saints are still trying to run the table, and the Falcons are scrabbling for a playoff spot.
Game: Lions (2-10) @ Ravens (6-6)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Ravens 24
Predicted winner: Ravens by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.8%
Favorite: Ravens by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.5%
I'm a little surprised by this line after the drubbing of the Ravens by the Packers, and I figure this is my personal upset favorite this week.
For the Steelers to make the playoffs, the Ravens must lose at least one game aside from the remaining game against the Steelers, so I'll be rooting for the Lions here.
Game: Packers (8-4) @ Bears (5-7)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Bears 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 54.6%
The Bears and Packers are too close when factoring in home field advantage. Could be a good'un.
Game: Seahawks (5-7) @ Texans (5-7)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Texans 23
Predicted winner: Texans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Texans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 48.3%
A relatively uncommon time when the prediction matches the line exactly, thus suggesting a pick for the underdog.
Pittsburgh will need Houston out of the way if they have a chance to make the playoffs, so they will need to lose one game. Might as well be this one!
Game: Broncos (8-4) @ Colts (12-0)
Predicted score: Broncos 14, Colts 20
Predicted winner: Colts by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 51.4%
Hmm, not much leeway here. I'm looking forward to this game, as the two teams may well end up in the playoffs against each other (#1 vs #6 seed in the divisional round after the Broncos take out the Bengals?)
For the Steelers to get to the playoffs, there are circumstances under which Denver losses will help (and it may take 3), so let's start here.
Game: Dolphins (6-6) @ Jaguars (7-5)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 52.2%
Two teams still alive in the playoff hunt. This also should be a real good game, I hope.
It also has playoff implications on the Steelers. Hope against the Jaguars in this one, as they may need to lose three of their remaining four.
Game: Bills (4-8) @ Chiefs (3-9)
Predicted score: Bills 20, Chiefs 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Yaaaaawn
Game: Bengals (9-3) @ Vikings (10-2)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Vikings 21
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.2%
This will be hyped by the announcers as a potential Superbowl matchup, but I have a feeling both teams are going to be early playoff exiters.
Game: Panthers (5-7) @ Patriots (7-5)
Predicted score: Panthers 14, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 9
Confidence of victory: 76.4%
Favorite: Patriots by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 60.4%
I doubt this will be much of a thriller. Not much in the way of playoff implications, except the Steelers will need the Patriots to win their division, so a win here keeps them ahead of the Dolphins.
Game: Jets (6-6) @ Buccaneers (1-11)
Predicted score: Jets 20, Buccaneers 16
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Jets by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 49.5%
A *very* close prediction to the line this time, but as you can see the system isn't very confident in the bet.
The Steelers need the Jets to lose at least two more games, so I'll be rooting for an unlikely upset.
Game: Rams (1-11) @ Titans (5-7)
Predicted score: Rams 17, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Titans by 13
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 66.2%
Will the streak continue?
Game: Redskins (3-9) @ Raiders (4-8)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Raiders by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Redskins by 1
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 52.4%
Ugh. this should be a snoozefest. I won't be able to see it anyway, since the Raiders are going to be blacked out.
Game: Chargers (9-3) @ Cowboys (8-4)
Predicted score: Chargers 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Another game that might be hyped as a potential Superbowl matchup. Personally, I think the Chargers are going to win handily.
Game: Eagles (8-4) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Giants 21
Predicted winner: Giants by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Eagles
Bet confidence: 48.1%
This might end up being the deciding factors in the playoffs for the loser.
Game: Cardinals (8-4) @ 49ers (5-7)
Predicted score: Cardinals 17, 49ers 20
Predicted winner: 49ers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 64.4%
The Cardinals get a chance to clinch the division, but Predictabot is expecting an upset. Could be a fun one.
So there we go.
2009 Week thirteen Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Bengals
4 : Patriots
5 : Broncos
6 : Jaguars
7 : Ravens
8 : Dolphins
9 : Jets
10 : Steelers
11 : Titans
12 : Texans
13 : Raiders
14 : Bills
15 : Chiefs
16 : Browns
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Vikings
3 : Cardinals
4 : Cowboys
5 : Eagles
6 : Packers
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : Panthers
10 : 49ers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Lions
15 : Buccaneers
16 : Rams
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | Colts | 12 | 0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 9.8 |
| 82 | Saints | 12 | 0 | 6.3 | 13.8 | -0.7 | 13.1 |
| 73 | Patriots | 7 | 5 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 9.9 |
| 71 | Vikings | 10 | 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 8.1 |
| 67 | Broncos | 8 | 4 | 3.3 | -0.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| 67 | Ravens | 6 | 6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 6.8 |
| 66 | Bengals | 9 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| 65 | Eagles | 8 | 4 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 6.3 |
| 64 | Cardinals | 8 | 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 4.4 |
| 62 | Packers | 8 | 4 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 5.3 |
| 62 | Cowboys | 8 | 4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| 62 | Chargers | 9 | 3 | 3.5 | 6.3 | -1.1 | 5.3 |
| 60 | Jets | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | -1.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| 55 | Giants | 7 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.1 | -1.5 | 2.6 |
| 52 | Steelers | 6 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 52 | 49ers | 5 | 7 | 0.3 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 50 | Dolphins | 6 | 6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | -1.4 | 1.2 |
| 49 | Falcons | 6 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 1.0 |
| 47 | Texans | 5 | 7 | 0.8 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 1.0 |
| 40 | Panthers | 5 | 7 | -0.3 | -4.0 | 0.4 | -3.6 |
| 40 | Seahawks | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -2.8 |
| 39 | Jaguars | 7 | 5 | 1.6 | -3.5 | -2.3 | -5.8 |
| 39 | Titans | 5 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -3.7 | -3.2 |
| 39 | Bears | 5 | 7 | -0.3 | -2.2 | -1.0 | -3.2 |
| 35 | Redskins | 3 | 9 | -2.5 | -6.2 | 2.0 | -4.2 |
| 32 | Bills | 4 | 8 | -1.7 | -5.9 | -0.1 | -6.0 |
| 30 | Raiders | 4 | 8 | -0.5 | -8.7 | -0.7 | -9.5 |
| 18 | Chiefs | 3 | 9 | -1.8 | -4.1 | -5.7 | -9.8 |
| 15 | Buccaneers | 1 | 11 | -3.9 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -9.5 |
| 14 | Browns | 1 | 11 | -3.6 | -7.6 | -3.4 | -10.9 |
| 12 | Lions | 2 | 10 | -2.8 | -3.6 | -7.0 | -10.6 |
| 12 | Rams | 1 | 11 | -3.8 | -9.6 | -2.9 | -12.6 |
Notes for the week:
- The Colts are still on top, and the Saints ended up dropping a little bit, including sending their defense into negative territory. This doesn't bode well for them, heading into the playoffs.
- I am somewhat baffled by the Patriots ability to remain near the top of the chart, having now moved into 3rd place over the Vikings. There are eight teams with more wins below them in the rankings. Largely this is because in the case of the Colts, Patriots, and Vikings all three of them have comparable offenses, but the defensive rankings separate them. The Colts are a rare combination of high offense and defense, which have historically done very well.
- The Rams retake their spot at the bottom of the table.
- Sizable drop for the Steelers, now stuck solidly in the middle of the pack.
- For some reason I am expecting the Superbowl this year to be the Colts vs one of the lower-seeded NFC teams.
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Bengals
4 : Patriots
5 : Broncos
6 : Jaguars
7 : Ravens
8 : Dolphins
9 : Jets
10 : Steelers
11 : Titans
12 : Texans
13 : Raiders
14 : Bills
15 : Chiefs
16 : Browns
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Vikings
3 : Cardinals
4 : Cowboys
5 : Eagles
6 : Packers
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : Panthers
10 : 49ers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Lions
15 : Buccaneers
16 : Rams
2009 Week thirteen prediction results
Some more changes since last week's report. First of all, for the first time, I've found an prediction method that gives results that would have resulted in a profit, had you been betting with PredictaBot's picks since 1978. A side effect of that is that the predicted score ranges are less extreme than they used to be, and ties are much more common. I'm still tuning it, but as a result some of the predictions here are different from the predictions I posted a few days ago.
I expect this to continue to change, but as usual, Predictabot doesn't use any data from "future" games when doing calculations, so these are what the new system would have picked for last week.
Also, I tuned the "Bet Confidence" so that it now shows the percentage of time that a team that is predicted to beat the spread by the predicted margin actually beats the spread.
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 13:
Game: Jets (6-6) @ Bills (4-8)
Predicted score: Jets 17, Bills 17
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Jets by 1
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 50.2%
Actual score: Jets 19, Bills 13
Actual winner: Jets by 6
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
This one was too close to call, but it ended up going the Jets' way.
Game: Eagles (8-4) @ Falcons (6-6)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Eagles by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 67.4%
Actual score: Eagles 34, Falcons 7
Actual winner: Eagles by 27
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
PB didn't start off the week well.
Game: Buccaneers (1-11) @ Panthers (5-7)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 17, Panthers 23
Predicted winner: Panthers by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Panthers by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 51.4%
Actual score: Buccaneers 6, Panthers 16
Actual winner: Panthers by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Just on the wrong side of things.
Game: Rams (1-11) @ Bears (5-7)
Predicted score: Rams 16, Bears 23
Predicted winner: Bears by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Bears by 9
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 56.4%
Actual score: Rams 9, Bears 17
Actual winner: Bears by 8
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Finally a good result.
Game: Lions (2-10) @ Bengals (9-3)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Bengals 24
Predicted winner: Bengals by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.8%
Favorite: Bengals by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.5%
Actual score: Lions 13, Bengals 23
Actual winner: Bengals by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Hard to be dissatisfied with this prediction.
Game: Titans (5-7) @ Colts (12-0)
Predicted score: Titans 16, Colts 24
Predicted winner: Colts by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.6%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 47.5%
Actual score: Titans 17, Colts 27
Actual winner: Colts by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Picking up steam as the week goes on.
Game: Texans (5-7) @ Jaguars (7-5)
Predicted score: Texans 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 1
Bet recommendation: Texans
Bet confidence: 48.1%
Actual score: Texans 18, Jaguars 23
Actual winner: Jaguars by 5
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
A little pothole on the prediction results by those pesky Jaguars.
Game: Broncos (8-4) @ Chiefs (3-9)
Predicted score: Broncos 20, Chiefs 17
Predicted winner: Broncos by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Broncos by 4
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 51.5%
Actual score: Broncos 44, Chiefs 13
Actual winner: Broncos by 31
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Raiders (4-8) @ Steelers (6-6)
Predicted score: Raiders 14, Steelers 21
Predicted winner: Steelers by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Steelers by 14
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 67.8%
Actual score: Raiders 27, Steelers 24
Actual winner: Raiders by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
I don't even want to talk about it.
Game: Saints (12-0) @ Redskins (3-9)
Predicted score: Saints 21, Redskins 17
Predicted winner: Saints by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Saints by 7
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Actual score: Saints 33, Redskins 30
Actual winner: Saints by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Chargers (9-3) @ Browns (1-11)
Predicted score: Chargers 23, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Chargers by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Chargers by 11.5
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 65.3%
Actual score: Chargers 30, Browns 23
Actual winner: Chargers by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Vikings (10-2) @ Cardinals (8-4)
Predicted score: Vikings 20, Cardinals 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Vikings by 4
Bet recommendation: Cardinals
Bet confidence: 62.1%
Actual score: Vikings 17, Cardinals 30
Actual winner: Cardinals by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Cowboys (8-4) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted score: Cowboys 20, Giants 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 50.2%
Actual score: Cowboys 24, Giants 31
Actual winner: Giants by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: 49ers (5-7) @ Seahawks (5-7)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Seahawks by 1
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 57.9%
Actual score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20
Actual winner: Seahawks by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
A fairly rare "exact" prediction.
Game: Patriots (7-5) @ Dolphins (6-6)
Predicted score: Patriots 21, Dolphins 20
Predicted winner: Patriots by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Patriots by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 67.5%
Actual score: Patriots 21, Dolphins 22
Actual winner: Dolphins by 1
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Another close one.
Game: Ravens (6-6) @ Packers (8-4)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Packers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Ravens 14, Packers 27
Actual winner: Packers by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Correct winning predictions: 9-3
Correct bet predictions: 9-7
I expect this to continue to change, but as usual, Predictabot doesn't use any data from "future" games when doing calculations, so these are what the new system would have picked for last week.
Also, I tuned the "Bet Confidence" so that it now shows the percentage of time that a team that is predicted to beat the spread by the predicted margin actually beats the spread.
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 13:
Game: Jets (6-6) @ Bills (4-8)
Predicted score: Jets 17, Bills 17
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Jets by 1
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 50.2%
Actual score: Jets 19, Bills 13
Actual winner: Jets by 6
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
This one was too close to call, but it ended up going the Jets' way.
Game: Eagles (8-4) @ Falcons (6-6)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Eagles by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 67.4%
Actual score: Eagles 34, Falcons 7
Actual winner: Eagles by 27
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
PB didn't start off the week well.
Game: Buccaneers (1-11) @ Panthers (5-7)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 17, Panthers 23
Predicted winner: Panthers by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Panthers by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 51.4%
Actual score: Buccaneers 6, Panthers 16
Actual winner: Panthers by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Just on the wrong side of things.
Game: Rams (1-11) @ Bears (5-7)
Predicted score: Rams 16, Bears 23
Predicted winner: Bears by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Bears by 9
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 56.4%
Actual score: Rams 9, Bears 17
Actual winner: Bears by 8
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Finally a good result.
Game: Lions (2-10) @ Bengals (9-3)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Bengals 24
Predicted winner: Bengals by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.8%
Favorite: Bengals by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.5%
Actual score: Lions 13, Bengals 23
Actual winner: Bengals by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Hard to be dissatisfied with this prediction.
Game: Titans (5-7) @ Colts (12-0)
Predicted score: Titans 16, Colts 24
Predicted winner: Colts by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.6%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 47.5%
Actual score: Titans 17, Colts 27
Actual winner: Colts by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Picking up steam as the week goes on.
Game: Texans (5-7) @ Jaguars (7-5)
Predicted score: Texans 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 1
Bet recommendation: Texans
Bet confidence: 48.1%
Actual score: Texans 18, Jaguars 23
Actual winner: Jaguars by 5
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
A little pothole on the prediction results by those pesky Jaguars.
Game: Broncos (8-4) @ Chiefs (3-9)
Predicted score: Broncos 20, Chiefs 17
Predicted winner: Broncos by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Broncos by 4
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 51.5%
Actual score: Broncos 44, Chiefs 13
Actual winner: Broncos by 31
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Raiders (4-8) @ Steelers (6-6)
Predicted score: Raiders 14, Steelers 21
Predicted winner: Steelers by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Steelers by 14
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 67.8%
Actual score: Raiders 27, Steelers 24
Actual winner: Raiders by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
I don't even want to talk about it.
Game: Saints (12-0) @ Redskins (3-9)
Predicted score: Saints 21, Redskins 17
Predicted winner: Saints by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Saints by 7
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Actual score: Saints 33, Redskins 30
Actual winner: Saints by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Chargers (9-3) @ Browns (1-11)
Predicted score: Chargers 23, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Chargers by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Chargers by 11.5
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 65.3%
Actual score: Chargers 30, Browns 23
Actual winner: Chargers by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Vikings (10-2) @ Cardinals (8-4)
Predicted score: Vikings 20, Cardinals 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Vikings by 4
Bet recommendation: Cardinals
Bet confidence: 62.1%
Actual score: Vikings 17, Cardinals 30
Actual winner: Cardinals by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Cowboys (8-4) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted score: Cowboys 20, Giants 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 50.2%
Actual score: Cowboys 24, Giants 31
Actual winner: Giants by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: 49ers (5-7) @ Seahawks (5-7)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Seahawks by 1
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 57.9%
Actual score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20
Actual winner: Seahawks by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
A fairly rare "exact" prediction.
Game: Patriots (7-5) @ Dolphins (6-6)
Predicted score: Patriots 21, Dolphins 20
Predicted winner: Patriots by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Patriots by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 67.5%
Actual score: Patriots 21, Dolphins 22
Actual winner: Dolphins by 1
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Another close one.
Game: Ravens (6-6) @ Packers (8-4)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Packers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Ravens 14, Packers 27
Actual winner: Packers by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Correct winning predictions: 9-3
Correct bet predictions: 9-7
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
2009 Week thirteen
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 13:
Game: Jets (5-6) @ Bills (4-7)
Predicted score: Jets 14, Bills 7
Predicted winner: Jets by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Jets by 3
Bet recommendation: Jets (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.7%
A low bet confidence here, and these teams are fairly inconsistent. The Jets are struggling to catch up in the AFC and are probably too far behind, but keep an eye on that week 17 game against the Bengals, who may not be playing for anything.
Game: Eagles (7-4) @ Falcons (6-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 1
Confidence of victory: 50.5%
Favorite: Eagles by 5.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons (give the points)
Bet confidence: 56.0%
A high bet confidence on this one, but not a high confidence of victory, which you could interpret as a likely outcome that the Eagles may win but not cover. Predictabot has two of the remaining Eagles games currently tagged as ties, so I suspect they'll end up at 9-7. The Falcons are also predicted to be 9-7, so this game could be a critical playoff tiebreaker.
Game: Buccaneers (1-10) @ Panthers (4-7)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 13, Panthers 23
Predicted winner: Panthers by 10
Confidence of victory: 64.9%
Favorite: Panthers by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 47.1%
The Buccaneers feel better to me than their record indicates, but I don't have a problem with this outcome. This is the last game that the Panthers are predicted to win, as they are ending with a spirit-crushing four games against the Patriots, Vikings, Giants, and Saints.
Game: Rams (1-10) @ Bears (4-7)
Predicted score: Rams 10, Bears 23
Predicted winner: Bears by 13
Confidence of victory: 72.5%
Favorite: Bears by 9
Bet recommendation: Bears (give the points)
Bet confidence: 45.7%
This seems an especially wise choice given Bulger's injury. Despite a win here, the Bears are too far out of it, most likely. Only 2% of 4-7 teams make the playoffs, but this year might be a chance, as there could be a logjam at 9-7 in the NFC.
Game: Lions (2-9) @ Bengals (8-3)
Predicted score: Lions 9, Bengals 30
Predicted winner: Bengals by 21
Confidence of victory: 78.0%
Favorite: Bengals by 13
Bet recommendation: Bengals (give the points)
Bet confidence: 51.5%
While Predictabot does predict some losses for the Bengals, this isn't likely to be one of them. They are interestingly predicted to lose 3 of their last four (to the Vikings, Chargers, and Jets), and Predictabot is actually predicting the Ravens to win the division.
Game: Titans (5-6) @ Colts (11-0)
Predicted score: Titans 9, Colts 30
Predicted winner: Colts by 21
Confidence of victory: 78.0%
Favorite: Colts by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Colts (give the points)
Bet confidence: 47.4%
Oof, well this is going to end one of the winning streaks. Despite the Cinderalla aspect of Vince Young, the Colts are NOT the Cardinals.
Game: Texans (5-6) @ Jaguars (6-5)
Predicted score: Texans 21, Jaguars 19
Predicted winner: Texans by 2
Confidence of victory: 52.4%
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Texans (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.9%
Two underperformers. The loser is probably out of the playoffs, but it's predicted to be close, and both teams are predicted to end below .500 for the year.
Game: Broncos (7-4) @ Chiefs (3-8)
Predicted score: Broncos 21, Chiefs 10
Predicted winner: Broncos by 11
Confidence of victory: 67.7%
Favorite: Broncos by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Broncos (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.3%
The Broncos really need to win this one, as they lose tiebreakers against both the Steelers and Ravens, both of who are angling for wild card spots. Predictabot is currently predicting the Broncos to end up at 10-5 with a tie predicted against the Eagles. I'm pretty sure the Broncos will need 11 wins to make it into the playoffs, but with 3 of their remaining games against the Chiefs and Raiders, they should make it to ten wins pretty safely.
Game: Raiders (3-8) @ Steelers (6-5)
Predicted score: Raiders 6, Steelers 21
Predicted winner: Steelers by 15
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Steelers by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Steelers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 59.1%
Oh god. I was at the Steelers@Raiders game a couple of years ago when Roethlisberger had a terrible game and the Steelers lost to the eventual 2-14 Raiders (and I think missed the playoffs as a result). The Steelers are in one of the more dire situations, as they face an effective 3 game deficit against the Bengals to win the division, and another game against the Ravens to come. The Steelers may be able to make it into the post-season with ten wins, but that means they need to win four out of five. (which is exactly what Predictabot calls, having them lose only to the Ravens). Still, it'd hard to imagine you could be swept by both the Bengals and Ravens and still make the playoffs.
Game: Saints (11-0) @ Redskins (3-8)
Predicted score: Saints 26, Redskins 10
Predicted winner: Saints by 16
Confidence of victory: 72.6%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Saints (take the points)
Bet confidence: 49.3%
Seems a safe bet to me, unless the Saints have some kind of post-Patriot let-down. The Saints are projected to run the table, with only the Falcons game being predicted to be under a double-digit win. Doing some quick math using the "Confidence" scores, this is only predicted to be about 16% likely.
Game: Chargers (8-3) @ Browns (1-10)
Predicted score: Chargers 27, Browns 13
Predicted winner: Chargers by 14
Confidence of victory: 72.4%
Favorite: Chargers by 13
Bet recommendation: Chargers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.3%
Not hard to accept this prediction. The Chargers are on fire. They are predicted to only lose to the Cowboys (although they have a close game with the Bengals in week 15 that may well determine who gets a first-round-bye.
Game: Vikings (10-1) @ Cardinals (7-4)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Cardinals 17
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 55.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 4
Bet recommendation: Cardinals (give the points)
Bet confidence: 51.7%
An interesting potential playoff matchup here, that probably won't affect the seeding. Right now, the loss to the Steelers may be the only mark on the Vikings record, but they are only predicted to win this game by 4, and the game against the Bengals by 6.
Game: Cowboys (8-3) @ Giants (6-5)
Predicted score: Cowboys 19, Giants 17
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 2
Confidence of victory: 52.4%
Favorite: Cowboys by 2
Bet recommendation: Giants (give the points)
Bet confidence: 49.2%
The Cowboys are in pretty good control of their division, and are likely just jostling with the Cardinals to see which team ends up in the third seed and which ends up in the fourth seed. Winning this game will certainly help cement that position, but a loss might open things up.
Game: 49ers (5-6) @ Seahawks (4-7)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13
Predicted winner: 49ers by 4
Confidence of victory: 55.6%
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: 49ers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.0%
The Niners are a dark horse candidate to make the playoffs, but they are also predicted to be one of about 5 NFC teams to end up at 9-7, so I'll be very curious to see how the tiebreakers shake out as we get closer.
Game: Patriots (7-4) @ Dolphins (5-6)
Predicted score: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16
Predicted winner: Patriots by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Patriots by 5
Bet recommendation: Patriots (take the points)
Bet confidence: 52.8%
The Dolphins likely need to win all of their remaining games to make the playoffs. Predictabot thinks they will end up at 8-8. The Patriots need to show they can overcome their losses to the other elite teams in the league. Despite their #3 ranking they are definitely mortal.
Game: Ravens (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted score: Ravens 17, Packers 16
Predicted winner: Ravens by 1
Confidence of victory: 50.5%
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.1%
This should be an interesting game. It's a very tight prediction, and while the Packers are in good position for a wildcard spot, they need to keep winning. They will likely need 3 wins to make it in. Predictabot thinks they will end up at 9-7 in the big NFC logjam. A loss by the Ravens here would be a *very* good thing for the Steelers and their playoff chances, especially since three of their remaining games are against the Lions, Bears, and Raiders.
Game: Jets (5-6) @ Bills (4-7)
Predicted score: Jets 14, Bills 7
Predicted winner: Jets by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Jets by 3
Bet recommendation: Jets (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.7%
A low bet confidence here, and these teams are fairly inconsistent. The Jets are struggling to catch up in the AFC and are probably too far behind, but keep an eye on that week 17 game against the Bengals, who may not be playing for anything.
Game: Eagles (7-4) @ Falcons (6-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 1
Confidence of victory: 50.5%
Favorite: Eagles by 5.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons (give the points)
Bet confidence: 56.0%
A high bet confidence on this one, but not a high confidence of victory, which you could interpret as a likely outcome that the Eagles may win but not cover. Predictabot has two of the remaining Eagles games currently tagged as ties, so I suspect they'll end up at 9-7. The Falcons are also predicted to be 9-7, so this game could be a critical playoff tiebreaker.
Game: Buccaneers (1-10) @ Panthers (4-7)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 13, Panthers 23
Predicted winner: Panthers by 10
Confidence of victory: 64.9%
Favorite: Panthers by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 47.1%
The Buccaneers feel better to me than their record indicates, but I don't have a problem with this outcome. This is the last game that the Panthers are predicted to win, as they are ending with a spirit-crushing four games against the Patriots, Vikings, Giants, and Saints.
Game: Rams (1-10) @ Bears (4-7)
Predicted score: Rams 10, Bears 23
Predicted winner: Bears by 13
Confidence of victory: 72.5%
Favorite: Bears by 9
Bet recommendation: Bears (give the points)
Bet confidence: 45.7%
This seems an especially wise choice given Bulger's injury. Despite a win here, the Bears are too far out of it, most likely. Only 2% of 4-7 teams make the playoffs, but this year might be a chance, as there could be a logjam at 9-7 in the NFC.
Game: Lions (2-9) @ Bengals (8-3)
Predicted score: Lions 9, Bengals 30
Predicted winner: Bengals by 21
Confidence of victory: 78.0%
Favorite: Bengals by 13
Bet recommendation: Bengals (give the points)
Bet confidence: 51.5%
While Predictabot does predict some losses for the Bengals, this isn't likely to be one of them. They are interestingly predicted to lose 3 of their last four (to the Vikings, Chargers, and Jets), and Predictabot is actually predicting the Ravens to win the division.
Game: Titans (5-6) @ Colts (11-0)
Predicted score: Titans 9, Colts 30
Predicted winner: Colts by 21
Confidence of victory: 78.0%
Favorite: Colts by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Colts (give the points)
Bet confidence: 47.4%
Oof, well this is going to end one of the winning streaks. Despite the Cinderalla aspect of Vince Young, the Colts are NOT the Cardinals.
Game: Texans (5-6) @ Jaguars (6-5)
Predicted score: Texans 21, Jaguars 19
Predicted winner: Texans by 2
Confidence of victory: 52.4%
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Texans (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.9%
Two underperformers. The loser is probably out of the playoffs, but it's predicted to be close, and both teams are predicted to end below .500 for the year.
Game: Broncos (7-4) @ Chiefs (3-8)
Predicted score: Broncos 21, Chiefs 10
Predicted winner: Broncos by 11
Confidence of victory: 67.7%
Favorite: Broncos by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Broncos (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.3%
The Broncos really need to win this one, as they lose tiebreakers against both the Steelers and Ravens, both of who are angling for wild card spots. Predictabot is currently predicting the Broncos to end up at 10-5 with a tie predicted against the Eagles. I'm pretty sure the Broncos will need 11 wins to make it into the playoffs, but with 3 of their remaining games against the Chiefs and Raiders, they should make it to ten wins pretty safely.
Game: Raiders (3-8) @ Steelers (6-5)
Predicted score: Raiders 6, Steelers 21
Predicted winner: Steelers by 15
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Steelers by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Steelers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 59.1%
Oh god. I was at the Steelers@Raiders game a couple of years ago when Roethlisberger had a terrible game and the Steelers lost to the eventual 2-14 Raiders (and I think missed the playoffs as a result). The Steelers are in one of the more dire situations, as they face an effective 3 game deficit against the Bengals to win the division, and another game against the Ravens to come. The Steelers may be able to make it into the post-season with ten wins, but that means they need to win four out of five. (which is exactly what Predictabot calls, having them lose only to the Ravens). Still, it'd hard to imagine you could be swept by both the Bengals and Ravens and still make the playoffs.
Game: Saints (11-0) @ Redskins (3-8)
Predicted score: Saints 26, Redskins 10
Predicted winner: Saints by 16
Confidence of victory: 72.6%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Saints (take the points)
Bet confidence: 49.3%
Seems a safe bet to me, unless the Saints have some kind of post-Patriot let-down. The Saints are projected to run the table, with only the Falcons game being predicted to be under a double-digit win. Doing some quick math using the "Confidence" scores, this is only predicted to be about 16% likely.
Game: Chargers (8-3) @ Browns (1-10)
Predicted score: Chargers 27, Browns 13
Predicted winner: Chargers by 14
Confidence of victory: 72.4%
Favorite: Chargers by 13
Bet recommendation: Chargers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.3%
Not hard to accept this prediction. The Chargers are on fire. They are predicted to only lose to the Cowboys (although they have a close game with the Bengals in week 15 that may well determine who gets a first-round-bye.
Game: Vikings (10-1) @ Cardinals (7-4)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Cardinals 17
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 55.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 4
Bet recommendation: Cardinals (give the points)
Bet confidence: 51.7%
An interesting potential playoff matchup here, that probably won't affect the seeding. Right now, the loss to the Steelers may be the only mark on the Vikings record, but they are only predicted to win this game by 4, and the game against the Bengals by 6.
Game: Cowboys (8-3) @ Giants (6-5)
Predicted score: Cowboys 19, Giants 17
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 2
Confidence of victory: 52.4%
Favorite: Cowboys by 2
Bet recommendation: Giants (give the points)
Bet confidence: 49.2%
The Cowboys are in pretty good control of their division, and are likely just jostling with the Cardinals to see which team ends up in the third seed and which ends up in the fourth seed. Winning this game will certainly help cement that position, but a loss might open things up.
Game: 49ers (5-6) @ Seahawks (4-7)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13
Predicted winner: 49ers by 4
Confidence of victory: 55.6%
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: 49ers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.0%
The Niners are a dark horse candidate to make the playoffs, but they are also predicted to be one of about 5 NFC teams to end up at 9-7, so I'll be very curious to see how the tiebreakers shake out as we get closer.
Game: Patriots (7-4) @ Dolphins (5-6)
Predicted score: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16
Predicted winner: Patriots by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Patriots by 5
Bet recommendation: Patriots (take the points)
Bet confidence: 52.8%
The Dolphins likely need to win all of their remaining games to make the playoffs. Predictabot thinks they will end up at 8-8. The Patriots need to show they can overcome their losses to the other elite teams in the league. Despite their #3 ranking they are definitely mortal.
Game: Ravens (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted score: Ravens 17, Packers 16
Predicted winner: Ravens by 1
Confidence of victory: 50.5%
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.1%
This should be an interesting game. It's a very tight prediction, and while the Packers are in good position for a wildcard spot, they need to keep winning. They will likely need 3 wins to make it in. Predictabot thinks they will end up at 9-7 in the big NFC logjam. A loss by the Ravens here would be a *very* good thing for the Steelers and their playoff chances, especially since three of their remaining games are against the Lions, Bears, and Raiders.
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