2009 Week fourteen prediction results

Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 14:

Game: Steelers (6-7) @ Browns (2-11)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Steelers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Steelers by 10
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 66.3%
Actual score: Steelers 6, Browns 13
Actual winner: Browns by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right

Highly disappointing.

Game: Saints (13-0) @ Falcons (6-7)
Predicted score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Saints by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 69.7%
Actual score: Saints 26, Falcons 23
Actual winner: Saints by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

I was pretty pleased with this prediction.

Game: Lions (2-11) @ Ravens (7-6)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Ravens 24
Predicted winner: Ravens by 10
Confidence of victory: 78.2%
Favorite: Ravens by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.7%
Actual score: Lions 3, Ravens 48
Actual winner: Ravens by 45
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Well, the new method doesn't predict many blowouts, and this is one of the side effects...generally, any +10 spreads are likely to be predicted not to cover.

Game: Packers (9-4) @ Bears (5-8)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Bears 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Packers 21, Bears 14
Actual winner: Packers by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Predictabot sure doesn't seem to think much of the Packers for their record, and it cost it this week.

Game: Seahawks (5-8) @ Texans (6-7)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Texans 23
Predicted winner: Texans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Texans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 48.2%
Actual score: Seahawks 7, Texans 34
Actual winner: Texans by 27
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

I don't think anyone expected a blowout like that.

Game: Broncos (8-5) @ Colts (13-0)
Predicted score: Broncos 14, Colts 20
Predicted winner: Colts by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 51.3%
Actual score: Broncos 16, Colts 28
Actual winner: Colts by 12
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

I'm definitely seeing more of these games where the winner isn't predicted to cover. I suspect the recent changes to the prediction method have made it a little too conservative.

Game: Dolphins (7-6) @ Jaguars (7-6)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 52.2%
Actual score: Dolphins 14, Jaguars 10
Actual winner: Dolphins by 4
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right

Close, but not terribly accurate.

Game: Bills (5-8) @ Chiefs (3-10)
Predicted score: Bills 20, Chiefs 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Actual score: Bills 16, Chiefs 10
Actual winner: Bills by 6
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Bengals (9-4) @ Vikings (11-2)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Vikings 21
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.1%
Actual score: Bengals 10, Vikings 30
Actual winner: Vikings by 20
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Another winner covers but Predictabot didn't think it would.

Game: Panthers (5-8) @ Patriots (8-5)
Predicted score: Panthers 14, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 9
Confidence of victory: 76.6%
Favorite: Patriots by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 60.5%
Actual score: Panthers 10, Patriots 20
Actual winner: Patriots by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

And here's one that works in our favor.

Game: Jets (7-6) @ Buccaneers (1-12)
Predicted score: Jets 20, Buccaneers 16
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Jets by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Jets 26, Buccaneers 3
Actual winner: Jets by 23
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Rams (1-12) @ Titans (6-7)
Predicted score: Rams 17, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Titans by 13
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 66.2%
Actual score: Rams 7, Titans 47
Actual winner: Titans by 40
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Redskins (4-9) @ Raiders (4-9)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Raiders by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Redskins by 1
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 52.4%
Actual score: Redskins 34, Raiders 13
Actual winner: Redskins by 21
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Chargers (10-3) @ Cowboys (8-5)
Predicted score: Chargers 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.5%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Actual score: Chargers 20, Cowboys 17
Actual winner: Chargers by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Eagles (9-4) @ Giants (7-6)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Giants 21
Predicted winner: Giants by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Eagles
Bet confidence: 48.1%
Actual score: Eagles 45, Giants 38
Actual winner: Eagles by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Cardinals (8-5) @ 49ers (6-7)
Predicted score: Cardinals 17, 49ers 20
Predicted winner: 49ers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 64.4%
Actual score: Cardinals 9, 49ers 24
Actual winner: 49ers by 15
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

A lot of these felt unremarkable. It looks like almost all of them were a split between the win and spread prediction. I suspect we'll need some tuning, but I want to see more data first.

Correct winning predictions: 9-5
Correct bet predictions: 8-8