2009 Week twelve prediction results

I put in some significant changes to the weekly results to make my life a little easier and to include more information.

As you will see for each game below, there is more detail, including an estimated "confidence" percentage in the win and spread predictions. Those confidences are fairly rough for now, but I've been wanting to add something like that for a while.

The confidences are all based on similar predictions. For example, when a team is predicted to win by 9, they have actually won 64% of those games. For spread predictions it is a little more complicated, and might yet not mean anything. What that is is a historical view of how often a team is predicted to win by x when the spread is y actually beats the spread. Since the historical accuracy of the system is barely over 50%, most of those are very close to 50%. Further analysis is needed.

I also made changes to how predictions are done, which had the primary effect of increasing the accuracy of spread predictions over the history of predictions by 1%.

Now, the report:

Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 12:

Game: Packers @ Lions
Predicted score: Packers 30, Lions 17
Predicted winner: Packers by 13
Confidence of victory: 72.5%
Favorite: Packers by 11
Bet recommendation: Packers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 47.4%
Actual score: Packers 34, Lions 12
Actual winner: Packers by 22
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Raiders @ Cowboys
Predicted score: Raiders 6, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 15
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Cowboys by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Cowboys (give the points)
Bet confidence: 59.1%
Actual score: Raiders 7, Cowboys 24
Actual winner: Cowboys by 17
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Giants @ Broncos
Predicted score: Giants 17, Broncos 20
Predicted winner: Broncos by 3
Confidence of victory: 53.6%
Favorite: Giants by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Broncos (give the points)
Bet confidence: 44.1%
Actual score: Giants 6, Broncos 26
Actual winner: Broncos by 20
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Buccaneers @ Falcons
Predicted score: Buccaneers 13, Falcons 30
Predicted winner: Falcons by 17
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Falcons by 12
Bet recommendation: Falcons (give the points)
Bet confidence: 45.6%
Actual score: Buccaneers 17, Falcons 20
Actual winner: Falcons by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Dolphins @ Bills
Predicted score: Dolphins 21, Bills 14
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Dolphins by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.7%
Actual score: Dolphins 14, Bills 31
Actual winner: Bills by 17
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Browns @ Bengals
Predicted score: Browns 6, Bengals 27
Predicted winner: Bengals by 21
Confidence of victory: 78.0%
Favorite: Bengals by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Bengals (give the points)
Bet confidence: 54.7%
Actual score: Browns 7, Bengals 16
Actual winner: Bengals by 9
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Colts @ Texans
Predicted score: Colts 23, Texans 13
Predicted winner: Colts by 10
Confidence of victory: 64.9%
Favorite: Colts by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Colts (take the points)
Bet confidence: 47.1%
Actual score: Colts 35, Texans 27
Actual winner: Colts by 8
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Bears @ Vikings
Predicted score: Bears 14, Vikings 28
Predicted winner: Vikings by 14
Confidence of victory: 72.4%
Favorite: Vikings by 10.5
Bet recommendation: Vikings (give the points)
Bet confidence: 52.3%
Actual score: Bears 10, Vikings 36
Actual winner: Vikings by 26
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Panthers @ Jets
Predicted score: Panthers 10, Jets 19
Predicted winner: Jets by 9
Confidence of victory: 63.9%
Favorite: Jets by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Jets (give the points)
Bet confidence: 47.0%
Actual score: Panthers 6, Jets 17
Actual winner: Jets by 11
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Redskins @ Eagles
Predicted score: Redskins 9, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 12
Confidence of victory: 69.4%
Favorite: Eagles by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Eagles (give the points)
Bet confidence: 42.5%
Actual score: Redskins 24, Eagles 27
Actual winner: Eagles by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Seahawks @ Rams
Predicted score: Seahawks 20, Rams 14
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 6
Confidence of victory: 58.4%
Favorite: Seahawks by 4
Bet recommendation: Seahawks (take the points)
Bet confidence: 46.8%
Actual score: Seahawks 27, Rams 17
Actual winner: Seahawks by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Cardinals @ Titans
Predicted score: Cardinals 26, Titans 19
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Titans by 2.5
Bet recommendation: Cardinals (take the points)
Bet confidence: 52.5%
Actual score: Cardinals 17, Titans 20
Actual winner: Titans by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Chiefs @ Chargers
Predicted score: Chiefs 14, Chargers 30
Predicted winner: Chargers by 16
Confidence of victory: 72.6%
Favorite: Chargers by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Chargers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 62.5%
Actual score: Chiefs 14, Chargers 43
Actual winner: Chargers by 29
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Jaguars @ 49ers
Predicted score: Jaguars 14, 49ers 23
Predicted winner: 49ers by 9
Confidence of victory: 63.9%
Favorite: 49ers by 3
Bet recommendation: 49ers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 45.9%
Actual score: Jaguars 3, 49ers 20
Actual winner: 49ers by 17
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Steelers @ Ravens
Predicted score: Steelers 13, Ravens 20
Predicted winner: Ravens by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Ravens by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Steelers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 52.1%
Actual score: Steelers 17, Ravens 20
Actual winner: Ravens by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Patriots @ Saints
Predicted score: Patriots 21, Saints 24
Predicted winner: Saints by 3
Confidence of victory: 53.6%
Favorite: Saints by 1.5
Bet recommendation: Saints (give the points)
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Actual score: Patriots 17, Saints 38
Actual winner: Saints by 21
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Correct winning predictions: 14-2
Correct bet predictions: 11-5