2009 Week thirteen

Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 13:

Game: Jets (5-6) @ Bills (4-7)
Predicted score: Jets 14, Bills 7
Predicted winner: Jets by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Jets by 3
Bet recommendation: Jets (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.7%

A low bet confidence here, and these teams are fairly inconsistent. The Jets are struggling to catch up in the AFC and are probably too far behind, but keep an eye on that week 17 game against the Bengals, who may not be playing for anything.

Game: Eagles (7-4) @ Falcons (6-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 1
Confidence of victory: 50.5%
Favorite: Eagles by 5.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons (give the points)
Bet confidence: 56.0%

A high bet confidence on this one, but not a high confidence of victory, which you could interpret as a likely outcome that the Eagles may win but not cover. Predictabot has two of the remaining Eagles games currently tagged as ties, so I suspect they'll end up at 9-7. The Falcons are also predicted to be 9-7, so this game could be a critical playoff tiebreaker.

Game: Buccaneers (1-10) @ Panthers (4-7)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 13, Panthers 23
Predicted winner: Panthers by 10
Confidence of victory: 64.9%
Favorite: Panthers by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 47.1%

The Buccaneers feel better to me than their record indicates, but I don't have a problem with this outcome. This is the last game that the Panthers are predicted to win, as they are ending with a spirit-crushing four games against the Patriots, Vikings, Giants, and Saints.

Game: Rams (1-10) @ Bears (4-7)
Predicted score: Rams 10, Bears 23
Predicted winner: Bears by 13
Confidence of victory: 72.5%
Favorite: Bears by 9
Bet recommendation: Bears (give the points)
Bet confidence: 45.7%

This seems an especially wise choice given Bulger's injury. Despite a win here, the Bears are too far out of it, most likely. Only 2% of 4-7 teams make the playoffs, but this year might be a chance, as there could be a logjam at 9-7 in the NFC.

Game: Lions (2-9) @ Bengals (8-3)
Predicted score: Lions 9, Bengals 30
Predicted winner: Bengals by 21
Confidence of victory: 78.0%
Favorite: Bengals by 13
Bet recommendation: Bengals (give the points)
Bet confidence: 51.5%

While Predictabot does predict some losses for the Bengals, this isn't likely to be one of them. They are interestingly predicted to lose 3 of their last four (to the Vikings, Chargers, and Jets), and Predictabot is actually predicting the Ravens to win the division.

Game: Titans (5-6) @ Colts (11-0)
Predicted score: Titans 9, Colts 30
Predicted winner: Colts by 21
Confidence of victory: 78.0%
Favorite: Colts by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Colts (give the points)
Bet confidence: 47.4%

Oof, well this is going to end one of the winning streaks. Despite the Cinderalla aspect of Vince Young, the Colts are NOT the Cardinals.

Game: Texans (5-6) @ Jaguars (6-5)
Predicted score: Texans 21, Jaguars 19
Predicted winner: Texans by 2
Confidence of victory: 52.4%
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Texans (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.9%

Two underperformers. The loser is probably out of the playoffs, but it's predicted to be close, and both teams are predicted to end below .500 for the year.

Game: Broncos (7-4) @ Chiefs (3-8)
Predicted score: Broncos 21, Chiefs 10
Predicted winner: Broncos by 11
Confidence of victory: 67.7%
Favorite: Broncos by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Broncos (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.3%

The Broncos really need to win this one, as they lose tiebreakers against both the Steelers and Ravens, both of who are angling for wild card spots. Predictabot is currently predicting the Broncos to end up at 10-5 with a tie predicted against the Eagles. I'm pretty sure the Broncos will need 11 wins to make it into the playoffs, but with 3 of their remaining games against the Chiefs and Raiders, they should make it to ten wins pretty safely.

Game: Raiders (3-8) @ Steelers (6-5)
Predicted score: Raiders 6, Steelers 21
Predicted winner: Steelers by 15
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Steelers by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Steelers (give the points)
Bet confidence: 59.1%

Oh god. I was at the Steelers@Raiders game a couple of years ago when Roethlisberger had a terrible game and the Steelers lost to the eventual 2-14 Raiders (and I think missed the playoffs as a result). The Steelers are in one of the more dire situations, as they face an effective 3 game deficit against the Bengals to win the division, and another game against the Ravens to come. The Steelers may be able to make it into the post-season with ten wins, but that means they need to win four out of five. (which is exactly what Predictabot calls, having them lose only to the Ravens). Still, it'd hard to imagine you could be swept by both the Bengals and Ravens and still make the playoffs.

Game: Saints (11-0) @ Redskins (3-8)
Predicted score: Saints 26, Redskins 10
Predicted winner: Saints by 16
Confidence of victory: 72.6%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Saints (take the points)
Bet confidence: 49.3%

Seems a safe bet to me, unless the Saints have some kind of post-Patriot let-down. The Saints are projected to run the table, with only the Falcons game being predicted to be under a double-digit win. Doing some quick math using the "Confidence" scores, this is only predicted to be about 16% likely.

Game: Chargers (8-3) @ Browns (1-10)
Predicted score: Chargers 27, Browns 13
Predicted winner: Chargers by 14
Confidence of victory: 72.4%
Favorite: Chargers by 13
Bet recommendation: Chargers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 45.3%

Not hard to accept this prediction. The Chargers are on fire. They are predicted to only lose to the Cowboys (although they have a close game with the Bengals in week 15 that may well determine who gets a first-round-bye.

Game: Vikings (10-1) @ Cardinals (7-4)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Cardinals 17
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 55.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 4
Bet recommendation: Cardinals (give the points)
Bet confidence: 51.7%

An interesting potential playoff matchup here, that probably won't affect the seeding. Right now, the loss to the Steelers may be the only mark on the Vikings record, but they are only predicted to win this game by 4, and the game against the Bengals by 6.

Game: Cowboys (8-3) @ Giants (6-5)
Predicted score: Cowboys 19, Giants 17
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 2
Confidence of victory: 52.4%
Favorite: Cowboys by 2
Bet recommendation: Giants (give the points)
Bet confidence: 49.2%

The Cowboys are in pretty good control of their division, and are likely just jostling with the Cardinals to see which team ends up in the third seed and which ends up in the fourth seed. Winning this game will certainly help cement that position, but a loss might open things up.


Game: 49ers (5-6) @ Seahawks (4-7)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13
Predicted winner: 49ers by 4
Confidence of victory: 55.6%
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: 49ers (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.0%

The Niners are a dark horse candidate to make the playoffs, but they are also predicted to be one of about 5 NFC teams to end up at 9-7, so I'll be very curious to see how the tiebreakers shake out as we get closer.

Game: Patriots (7-4) @ Dolphins (5-6)
Predicted score: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16
Predicted winner: Patriots by 7
Confidence of victory: 60.0%
Favorite: Patriots by 5
Bet recommendation: Patriots (take the points)
Bet confidence: 52.8%

The Dolphins likely need to win all of their remaining games to make the playoffs. Predictabot thinks they will end up at 8-8. The Patriots need to show they can overcome their losses to the other elite teams in the league. Despite their #3 ranking they are definitely mortal.

Game: Ravens (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted score: Ravens 17, Packers 16
Predicted winner: Ravens by 1
Confidence of victory: 50.5%
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens (take the points)
Bet confidence: 50.1%

This should be an interesting game. It's a very tight prediction, and while the Packers are in good position for a wildcard spot, they need to keep winning. They will likely need 3 wins to make it in. Predictabot thinks they will end up at 9-7 in the big NFC logjam. A loss by the Ravens here would be a *very* good thing for the Steelers and their playoff chances, especially since three of their remaining games are against the Lions, Bears, and Raiders.