2009 Week fourteen

Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 14:

Game: Steelers (6-6) @ Browns (1-11)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Steelers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Steelers by 10
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 66.4%

I realize this game has already happened when I post this. Just terrible. The loss pretty much eliminates the Steelers from the playoffs, but I'll mention games the rest of the time that have impact.

Game: Saints (12-0) @ Falcons (6-6)
Predicted score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Saints by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Saints by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 69.6%

Earlier in the year I expected this game to be a huge one in determining the division winner, but instead it's two separate stories. The Saints are still trying to run the table, and the Falcons are scrabbling for a playoff spot.

Game: Lions (2-10) @ Ravens (6-6)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Ravens 24
Predicted winner: Ravens by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.8%
Favorite: Ravens by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.5%

I'm a little surprised by this line after the drubbing of the Ravens by the Packers, and I figure this is my personal upset favorite this week.

For the Steelers to make the playoffs, the Ravens must lose at least one game aside from the remaining game against the Steelers, so I'll be rooting for the Lions here.

Game: Packers (8-4) @ Bears (5-7)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Bears 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 54.6%

The Bears and Packers are too close when factoring in home field advantage. Could be a good'un.

Game: Seahawks (5-7) @ Texans (5-7)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Texans 23
Predicted winner: Texans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Texans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 48.3%

A relatively uncommon time when the prediction matches the line exactly, thus suggesting a pick for the underdog.

Pittsburgh will need Houston out of the way if they have a chance to make the playoffs, so they will need to lose one game. Might as well be this one!

Game: Broncos (8-4) @ Colts (12-0)
Predicted score: Broncos 14, Colts 20
Predicted winner: Colts by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 51.4%

Hmm, not much leeway here. I'm looking forward to this game, as the two teams may well end up in the playoffs against each other (#1 vs #6 seed in the divisional round after the Broncos take out the Bengals?)

For the Steelers to get to the playoffs, there are circumstances under which Denver losses will help (and it may take 3), so let's start here.

Game: Dolphins (6-6) @ Jaguars (7-5)
Predicted score: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 52.2%

Two teams still alive in the playoff hunt. This also should be a real good game, I hope.

It also has playoff implications on the Steelers. Hope against the Jaguars in this one, as they may need to lose three of their remaining four.

Game: Bills (4-8) @ Chiefs (3-9)
Predicted score: Bills 20, Chiefs 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: None
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 49.6%

Yaaaaawn

Game: Bengals (9-3) @ Vikings (10-2)
Predicted score: Bengals 17, Vikings 21
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 58.2%

This will be hyped by the announcers as a potential Superbowl matchup, but I have a feeling both teams are going to be early playoff exiters.

Game: Panthers (5-7) @ Patriots (7-5)
Predicted score: Panthers 14, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 9
Confidence of victory: 76.4%
Favorite: Patriots by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 60.4%

I doubt this will be much of a thriller. Not much in the way of playoff implications, except the Steelers will need the Patriots to win their division, so a win here keeps them ahead of the Dolphins.

Game: Jets (6-6) @ Buccaneers (1-11)
Predicted score: Jets 20, Buccaneers 16
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Jets by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 49.5%

A *very* close prediction to the line this time, but as you can see the system isn't very confident in the bet.

The Steelers need the Jets to lose at least two more games, so I'll be rooting for an unlikely upset.

Game: Rams (1-11) @ Titans (5-7)
Predicted score: Rams 17, Titans 23
Predicted winner: Titans by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Titans by 13
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 66.2%

Will the streak continue?

Game: Redskins (3-9) @ Raiders (4-8)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Raiders by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Redskins by 1
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 52.4%

Ugh. this should be a snoozefest. I won't be able to see it anyway, since the Raiders are going to be blacked out.

Game: Chargers (9-3) @ Cowboys (8-4)
Predicted score: Chargers 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%

Another game that might be hyped as a potential Superbowl matchup. Personally, I think the Chargers are going to win handily.

Game: Eagles (8-4) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Giants 21
Predicted winner: Giants by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Eagles
Bet confidence: 48.1%

This might end up being the deciding factors in the playoffs for the loser.

Game: Cardinals (8-4) @ 49ers (5-7)
Predicted score: Cardinals 17, 49ers 20
Predicted winner: 49ers by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: 49ers
Bet confidence: 64.4%

The Cardinals get a chance to clinch the division, but Predictabot is expecting an upset. Could be a fun one.

So there we go.