2009 Week thirteen prediction results

Some more changes since last week's report. First of all, for the first time, I've found an prediction method that gives results that would have resulted in a profit, had you been betting with PredictaBot's picks since 1978. A side effect of that is that the predicted score ranges are less extreme than they used to be, and ties are much more common. I'm still tuning it, but as a result some of the predictions here are different from the predictions I posted a few days ago.

I expect this to continue to change, but as usual, Predictabot doesn't use any data from "future" games when doing calculations, so these are what the new system would have picked for last week.

Also, I tuned the "Bet Confidence" so that it now shows the percentage of time that a team that is predicted to beat the spread by the predicted margin actually beats the spread.

Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 13:

Game: Jets (6-6) @ Bills (4-8)
Predicted score: Jets 17, Bills 17
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Jets by 1
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 50.2%
Actual score: Jets 19, Bills 13
Actual winner: Jets by 6
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong

This one was too close to call, but it ended up going the Jets' way.

Game: Eagles (8-4) @ Falcons (6-6)
Predicted score: Eagles 20, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Eagles by 4.5
Bet recommendation: Falcons
Bet confidence: 67.4%
Actual score: Eagles 34, Falcons 7
Actual winner: Eagles by 27
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong

PB didn't start off the week well.

Game: Buccaneers (1-11) @ Panthers (5-7)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 17, Panthers 23
Predicted winner: Panthers by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Panthers by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 51.4%
Actual score: Buccaneers 6, Panthers 16
Actual winner: Panthers by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Just on the wrong side of things.

Game: Rams (1-11) @ Bears (5-7)
Predicted score: Rams 16, Bears 23
Predicted winner: Bears by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Bears by 9
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 56.4%
Actual score: Rams 9, Bears 17
Actual winner: Bears by 8
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Finally a good result.

Game: Lions (2-10) @ Bengals (9-3)
Predicted score: Lions 14, Bengals 24
Predicted winner: Bengals by 10
Confidence of victory: 77.8%
Favorite: Bengals by 13
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 54.5%
Actual score: Lions 13, Bengals 23
Actual winner: Bengals by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Hard to be dissatisfied with this prediction.

Game: Titans (5-7) @ Colts (12-0)
Predicted score: Titans 16, Colts 24
Predicted winner: Colts by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.6%
Favorite: Colts by 7
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 47.5%
Actual score: Titans 17, Colts 27
Actual winner: Colts by 10
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Picking up steam as the week goes on.

Game: Texans (5-7) @ Jaguars (7-5)
Predicted score: Texans 20, Jaguars 21
Predicted winner: Jaguars by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Jaguars by 1
Bet recommendation: Texans
Bet confidence: 48.1%
Actual score: Texans 18, Jaguars 23
Actual winner: Jaguars by 5
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

A little pothole on the prediction results by those pesky Jaguars.

Game: Broncos (8-4) @ Chiefs (3-9)
Predicted score: Broncos 20, Chiefs 17
Predicted winner: Broncos by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Broncos by 4
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 51.5%
Actual score: Broncos 44, Chiefs 13
Actual winner: Broncos by 31
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: Raiders (4-8) @ Steelers (6-6)
Predicted score: Raiders 14, Steelers 21
Predicted winner: Steelers by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Steelers by 14
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 67.8%
Actual score: Raiders 27, Steelers 24
Actual winner: Raiders by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right

I don't even want to talk about it.

Game: Saints (12-0) @ Redskins (3-9)
Predicted score: Saints 21, Redskins 17
Predicted winner: Saints by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Saints by 7
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Actual score: Saints 33, Redskins 30
Actual winner: Saints by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Chargers (9-3) @ Browns (1-11)
Predicted score: Chargers 23, Browns 17
Predicted winner: Chargers by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Chargers by 11.5
Bet recommendation: Browns
Bet confidence: 65.3%
Actual score: Chargers 30, Browns 23
Actual winner: Chargers by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Vikings (10-2) @ Cardinals (8-4)
Predicted score: Vikings 20, Cardinals 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Vikings by 4
Bet recommendation: Cardinals
Bet confidence: 62.1%
Actual score: Vikings 17, Cardinals 30
Actual winner: Cardinals by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right

Game: Cowboys (8-4) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted score: Cowboys 20, Giants 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Giants by 1
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 50.2%
Actual score: Cowboys 24, Giants 31
Actual winner: Giants by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Game: 49ers (5-7) @ Seahawks (5-7)
Predicted score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Seahawks by 1
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 57.9%
Actual score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20
Actual winner: Seahawks by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right

A fairly rare "exact" prediction.

Game: Patriots (7-5) @ Dolphins (6-6)
Predicted score: Patriots 21, Dolphins 20
Predicted winner: Patriots by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Patriots by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 67.5%
Actual score: Patriots 21, Dolphins 22
Actual winner: Dolphins by 1
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right

Another close one.

Game: Ravens (6-6) @ Packers (8-4)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Packers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Packers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Ravens 14, Packers 27
Actual winner: Packers by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong

Correct winning predictions: 9-3
Correct bet predictions: 9-7