Predicted scores for 2009 week 12:
Packers 31 (-11)
Lions 16
This seems reasonable. Despite the Packer's defensive injuries I don't expect them to fall apart yet.
Raiders 3
Cowboys 21 (-13.5)
I wouldn't be surprised to see this go a little differently, as the Cowboys offense has been sputtering and the Raiders are showing signs of life. I still expect the Cowboys to win, but that point spread is looking pretty risky to take.
Giants 17 (-6.5)
Broncos 19
Battle of the Collapsers. Could this one end up a 3-2 score?
Buccaneers 13
Falcons 31 (-12)
No argument here.
Dolphins 21 (-3)
Bills 13
If the Dolphins want to stay in it they're going to need to win this one.
Browns 3
Bengals 28 (-14)
Oh god, I have to root for the Browns this week. Still, this seems entirely reasonable.
Colts 21 (-3.5)
Texans 10
I wouldn't want to come up against the Colts now. They're not perfect, but they're the closest thing going.
Bears 16
Vikings 28 (-11)
The Vikings are just predicted to cover the spread...close enough that I'd probably not bet in this case..
Panthers 9
Jets 20 (-3)
The Jets are just considered better across the board, and also have home field advantage.
Redskins 9
Eagles 20 (-9)
The Eagles are kind of quietly hanging around the back of the NFC playoff pack, being ignored by everyone. A few more wins and people will be paying attention.
Seahawks 20 (-3)
Rams 13
Ugh, wake me when it's over/
Cardinals 26
Titans 19 (-2.5)
This could be an interesting game, actually. The Cardinals are in pretty good shape in their division, but the Titans' resurgence is hard to predict.
Chiefs 16
Chargers 31 (-13.5)
The Chargers continue to manhandle teams, as they decided to wake up for the playoffs a few weeks earlier this year than last year.
Jaguars 13
49ers 24 (-3)
The Jaguars currently are in position for the 5th seed in the AFC, but they are the 22nd ranked team in the league by Predictabot. (Baltimore, which is 5-5, is ranked 5th overall) Predictabot is not convinced. Of course, the Niners aren't in position to convince anyone of anything.
Steelers 13
Ravens 20 (-2.5)
Sadly, this seems entirely reasonable, given the way the two teams have been playing lately.
Patriots 23
Saints 24 (-3)
Well, well. This one is picked to be very close, but the Saints are expected to pull it out. I'm not sure about this one. I know we don't get any othre of the "big 4" teams meeting this year in the regular season, but I'm not convinced that the Patriots are the benchmark.
Should be a good one.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
2009 Week eleven Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | Colts | 10 | 0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 10.9 |
| 82 | Saints | 10 | 0 | 5.3 | 12.6 | 0.1 | 12.6 |
| 78 | Patriots | 7 | 3 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 12.3 |
| 71 | Vikings | 9 | 1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 0.6 | 7.8 |
| 66 | Ravens | 5 | 5 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 7.9 |
| 66 | Bengals | 7 | 3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 4.8 |
| 63 | Cowboys | 7 | 3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| 61 | Chargers | 7 | 3 | 3.0 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 5.0 |
| 61 | Cardinals | 7 | 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 3.6 |
| 59 | Eagles | 6 | 4 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 5.1 |
| 58 | Steelers | 6 | 4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| 57 | Falcons | 5 | 5 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 4.7 |
| 56 | Broncos | 6 | 4 | 2.4 | -2.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| 56 | Giants | 6 | 4 | 2.1 | 5.0 | -1.3 | 3.8 |
| 55 | Packers | 6 | 4 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 3.4 |
| 54 | Jets | 4 | 6 | 0.1 | -0.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| 53 | Dolphins | 5 | 5 | 1.6 | 3.2 | -0.5 | 2.7 |
| 49 | Texans | 5 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 1.1 |
| 48 | 49ers | 4 | 6 | 0.3 | -1.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 39 | Panthers | 4 | 6 | 0.1 | -2.5 | -0.6 | -3.1 |
| 39 | Bears | 4 | 6 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -2.0 |
| 37 | Jaguars | 6 | 4 | 1.5 | -2.8 | -3.4 | -6.1 |
| 36 | Seahawks | 3 | 7 | -0.7 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -3.2 |
| 35 | Titans | 4 | 6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | -4.9 | -4.2 |
| 28 | Redskins | 3 | 7 | -2.1 | -9.1 | 2.3 | -6.8 |
| 26 | Bills | 3 | 7 | -1.5 | -7.6 | -0.5 | -8.2 |
| 26 | Chiefs | 3 | 7 | -1.2 | -3.7 | -3.3 | -6.9 |
| 23 | Raiders | 3 | 7 | -0.9 | -9.9 | -1.0 | -11.0 |
| 14 | Buccaneers | 1 | 9 | -2.9 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -9.5 |
| 13 | Lions | 2 | 8 | -2.0 | -3.4 | -7.6 | -11.0 |
| 12 | Rams | 1 | 9 | -2.6 | -9.8 | -3.1 | -13.0 |
| 10 | Browns | 1 | 9 | -2.9 | -8.8 | -4.3 | -13.1 |
Notes for the week:
- The Colts held their top spot with an 89 overall rating, but the Saints caught up a little bit.
- After talking up the AFC North last week, all four teams lost. This affected the Steelers the most, dropping them down all the way to #11. The Ravens improved their position despite losing, as they held tough with the Colts
- There are still a lot of options for how the playoffs are going to go. It seems like there are 15 teams that might be fighting for the last two pairs of wild card spots.
2009 Week eleven prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 11:
MIA 23
CAR 21 (-3.5)
Good start on this..
IND 17 (-1)
BAL 14
Well, this was..pleasing. The final was 17-15 Colts. What would the Ravens' record be if they had a reliable kicker?
WAS 7
DAL 23 (-11)
This ended up being a much closer 7-6 win for the Cowboys. What happened to their offense?
CLE 20
DET 21 (-3.5)
Well, for a game that was between two chumps, this ended up being a hoot. The Lions did win by 1, although it was 38-37.
SFO 17
GNB 19 (-6.5)
Another good prediction, as the Packers won 30-24 and failed to cover.
BUF 19
JAC 21 (-9)
Another result that was a good match with the prediction. The Jaguars won 18-15.
PIT 26 (-10)
KAN 10
The final was 27-24 Chiefs. No comment.
SEA 20
MIN 30 (-11)
Contrary to Predictabot's (and my) notion, the Vikings did cover, winning 35-9.
ATL 23
NYG 20 (-6.5)
This was another fun game, but it was the Giants who ended up on top, 34-31.
NOR 38 (-11.5)
TAM 20
Saints 38, Bucs 7. Predictabot thinks the Saints have a couple of losses coming yet, but from their performance they might never stop.
ARI 28 (-9)
STL 9
The Cardinals ended up winning this 21-13, which means that they didn't cover.
SDG 17 (-3)
DEN 26
"After the last four weeks, I have to completely disagree. The Chargers are going to murder the Broncos." I finally predicted my own correctly as the Chargers won 32-3.
NYJ 9
NWE 19 (-10.5)
I thought the Patriots would cover with ease, and they ended up winning 31-14.
CIN 23 (-9.5)
OAK 3
"The Bengals probably aren't going to self-destruct until the playoffs". I can dream. Oakland upsets 20-17. Predictabot doesn't think the Bengals are going to lose again this year (at least...during the regular season)
PHI 24 (-3)
CHI 19
Another good prediction, as the final was Philly 24, Chicago 20.
TEN 21
HOU 34 (-4.5)
Vince Young's luck is alive and well, as the Titans keep their winning streak alive by ended up ahead 20-17.
A decent week, going 11-5 picking winners and 8-8 against the spread. That puts the yearly predictions at 63% picking winners and 52% against the spread.
MIA 23
CAR 21 (-3.5)
Good start on this..
IND 17 (-1)
BAL 14
Well, this was..pleasing. The final was 17-15 Colts. What would the Ravens' record be if they had a reliable kicker?
WAS 7
DAL 23 (-11)
This ended up being a much closer 7-6 win for the Cowboys. What happened to their offense?
CLE 20
DET 21 (-3.5)
Well, for a game that was between two chumps, this ended up being a hoot. The Lions did win by 1, although it was 38-37.
SFO 17
GNB 19 (-6.5)
Another good prediction, as the Packers won 30-24 and failed to cover.
BUF 19
JAC 21 (-9)
Another result that was a good match with the prediction. The Jaguars won 18-15.
PIT 26 (-10)
KAN 10
The final was 27-24 Chiefs. No comment.
SEA 20
MIN 30 (-11)
Contrary to Predictabot's (and my) notion, the Vikings did cover, winning 35-9.
ATL 23
NYG 20 (-6.5)
This was another fun game, but it was the Giants who ended up on top, 34-31.
NOR 38 (-11.5)
TAM 20
Saints 38, Bucs 7. Predictabot thinks the Saints have a couple of losses coming yet, but from their performance they might never stop.
ARI 28 (-9)
STL 9
The Cardinals ended up winning this 21-13, which means that they didn't cover.
SDG 17 (-3)
DEN 26
"After the last four weeks, I have to completely disagree. The Chargers are going to murder the Broncos." I finally predicted my own correctly as the Chargers won 32-3.
NYJ 9
NWE 19 (-10.5)
I thought the Patriots would cover with ease, and they ended up winning 31-14.
CIN 23 (-9.5)
OAK 3
"The Bengals probably aren't going to self-destruct until the playoffs". I can dream. Oakland upsets 20-17. Predictabot doesn't think the Bengals are going to lose again this year (at least...during the regular season)
PHI 24 (-3)
CHI 19
Another good prediction, as the final was Philly 24, Chicago 20.
TEN 21
HOU 34 (-4.5)
Vince Young's luck is alive and well, as the Titans keep their winning streak alive by ended up ahead 20-17.
A decent week, going 11-5 picking winners and 8-8 against the spread. That puts the yearly predictions at 63% picking winners and 52% against the spread.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
2009 Week eleven
Predicted scores for 2009 week 11:
MIA 23
CAR 21 (-3.5)
The game is already done, and we started off with a pair of good predictions, as Miami did come up with upset.
IND 17 (-1)
BAL 14
I'm surprised this is only by 3. I would have thought Predictabot would have favored the Colts by more. Still, they are coming to Baltimore, and there's history here. For some reason I have a feeling Baltimore is going to upset.
WAS 7
DAL 23 (-11)
The Redskins don't have the worst offense in the league any more (Thanks, Raiders), but they're still the Redskins. We'll see if this rumor that the Redskins offense has been too focused on Portis might mean that the offense will pick up without him.
CLE 20
DET 21 (-3.5)
Both teams are so bad, it's too close to call.
SFO 17
GNB 19 (-6.5)
Both of these teams have been pretty inconsistent lately, and if the Niners don't win, they'll be down to 4-6 and likely miss the playoffs. Predictabot is giving the win to the Packers but not enough to cover.
BUF 19
JAC 21 (-9)
Another hard-to-predict game, in my opinion. The "new coach" factor can always throw a wrench into the plans. I'm going to say that growing pains prevent the win for the Bills, but I could see them at least keeping it within the point spread.
PIT 26 (-10)
KAN 10
This seems like a reasonable outcome. I hope.
SEA 20
MIN 30 (-11)
Hmm, the Vikings aren't picked to beat the spread, even though it's close. I've been saying for a few weeks that the Vikings aren't as good as their record indicates. In Predictabot's ranking there are 7 teams with more losses (included a 5-4 team!) ranked higher than the Vikings. Still, it's the Seahawks, who are just averagely mediocre.
ATL 23
NYG 20 (-6.5)
This is a big NFC battle, as the loser is going to be at .500 with just six games left.
NOR 38 (-11.5)
TAM 20
I'm quite surprised to see this prediction, but I see that in recent weeks the Saints defense has been looking more and more mortal, even dipping below league average this week. If the Saints keep doing what they've been doing, they might just lose this one.
ARI 28 (-9)
STL 9
Seems pretty clear to me...the Cardinals are a top-ten team and the Rams are the worst team in the NFL.
SDG 17 (-3)
DEN 26
After the last four weeks, I have to completely disagree. The Chargers are going to murder the Broncos.
NYJ 9
NWE 19 (-10.5)
I don't think the rookie is going to get the win, but maybe just enough to keep the Patriots from covering. Personally I think the Pats will cover with ease.
CIN 23 (-9.5)
OAK 3
I can hope for an upset, but Oakland is really bad, and the Bengals probably aren't going to self-destruct until the playoffs.
PHI 24 (-3)
CHI 19
Two teams that I thought had a good shot at going somewhere, lingering around .500 and with no real identity. Predictabot has the Eagles ahead enough to win and cover, but they seem to screw that up plenty.
TEN 21
HOU 34 (-4.5)
Wow. After the Baltimore/Cleveland game, we get this beauty for Monday night? I could see it go either way, but I suspect this week, Vince Young's luck will run out.
MIA 23
CAR 21 (-3.5)
The game is already done, and we started off with a pair of good predictions, as Miami did come up with upset.
IND 17 (-1)
BAL 14
I'm surprised this is only by 3. I would have thought Predictabot would have favored the Colts by more. Still, they are coming to Baltimore, and there's history here. For some reason I have a feeling Baltimore is going to upset.
WAS 7
DAL 23 (-11)
The Redskins don't have the worst offense in the league any more (Thanks, Raiders), but they're still the Redskins. We'll see if this rumor that the Redskins offense has been too focused on Portis might mean that the offense will pick up without him.
CLE 20
DET 21 (-3.5)
Both teams are so bad, it's too close to call.
SFO 17
GNB 19 (-6.5)
Both of these teams have been pretty inconsistent lately, and if the Niners don't win, they'll be down to 4-6 and likely miss the playoffs. Predictabot is giving the win to the Packers but not enough to cover.
BUF 19
JAC 21 (-9)
Another hard-to-predict game, in my opinion. The "new coach" factor can always throw a wrench into the plans. I'm going to say that growing pains prevent the win for the Bills, but I could see them at least keeping it within the point spread.
PIT 26 (-10)
KAN 10
This seems like a reasonable outcome. I hope.
SEA 20
MIN 30 (-11)
Hmm, the Vikings aren't picked to beat the spread, even though it's close. I've been saying for a few weeks that the Vikings aren't as good as their record indicates. In Predictabot's ranking there are 7 teams with more losses (included a 5-4 team!) ranked higher than the Vikings. Still, it's the Seahawks, who are just averagely mediocre.
ATL 23
NYG 20 (-6.5)
This is a big NFC battle, as the loser is going to be at .500 with just six games left.
NOR 38 (-11.5)
TAM 20
I'm quite surprised to see this prediction, but I see that in recent weeks the Saints defense has been looking more and more mortal, even dipping below league average this week. If the Saints keep doing what they've been doing, they might just lose this one.
ARI 28 (-9)
STL 9
Seems pretty clear to me...the Cardinals are a top-ten team and the Rams are the worst team in the NFL.
SDG 17 (-3)
DEN 26
After the last four weeks, I have to completely disagree. The Chargers are going to murder the Broncos.
NYJ 9
NWE 19 (-10.5)
I don't think the rookie is going to get the win, but maybe just enough to keep the Patriots from covering. Personally I think the Pats will cover with ease.
CIN 23 (-9.5)
OAK 3
I can hope for an upset, but Oakland is really bad, and the Bengals probably aren't going to self-destruct until the playoffs.
PHI 24 (-3)
CHI 19
Two teams that I thought had a good shot at going somewhere, lingering around .500 and with no real identity. Predictabot has the Eagles ahead enough to win and cover, but they seem to screw that up plenty.
TEN 21
HOU 34 (-4.5)
Wow. After the Baltimore/Cleveland game, we get this beauty for Monday night? I could see it go either way, but I suspect this week, Vince Young's luck will run out.
2009 Week ten Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | Colts | 9 | 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 11.1 |
| 79 | Saints | 9 | 0 | 5.3 | 13.3 | -1.3 | 12.0 |
| 78 | Bengals | 7 | 2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 |
| 78 | Patriots | 6 | 3 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 12.3 |
| 65 | Ravens | 5 | 4 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 7.3 |
| 65 | Steelers | 6 | 3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 |
| 65 | Cardinals | 6 | 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 5.7 |
| 64 | Cowboys | 6 | 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 5.6 |
| 64 | Broncos | 6 | 3 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| 64 | Vikings | 8 | 1 | 3.7 | 7.3 | -1.4 | 5.8 |
| 60 | Falcons | 5 | 4 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 5.1 |
| 58 | Jets | 4 | 5 | 0.4 | -1.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| 56 | Eagles | 5 | 4 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 5.0 |
| 53 | Packers | 5 | 4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 2.8 |
| 52 | 49ers | 4 | 5 | 0.8 | -1.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 52 | Chargers | 6 | 3 | 2.4 | 5.0 | -2.6 | 2.4 |
| 52 | Dolphins | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 3.0 |
| 50 | Giants | 5 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.4 | -0.5 | 2.8 |
| 49 | Texans | 5 | 4 | 1.4 | 2.8 | -0.7 | 2.0 |
| 43 | Panthers | 4 | 5 | 0.9 | -2.2 | -0.4 | -2.5 |
| 39 | Bears | 4 | 5 | 0.2 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -2.3 |
| 37 | Seahawks | 3 | 6 | -0.6 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -2.0 |
| 34 | Jaguars | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | -2.7 | -3.4 | -6.1 |
| 28 | Titans | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -5.9 | -5.0 |
| 27 | Redskins | 3 | 6 | -1.7 | -8.3 | 0.5 | -7.8 |
| 26 | Bills | 3 | 6 | -1.1 | -7.5 | -0.8 | -8.4 |
| 18 | Chiefs | 2 | 7 | -2.0 | -5.7 | -3.5 | -9.1 |
| 16 | Raiders | 2 | 7 | -1.9 | -11.4 | -1.7 | -13.2 |
| 15 | Browns | 1 | 8 | -2.0 | -10.3 | -2.2 | -12.5 |
| 12 | Buccaneers | 1 | 8 | -2.9 | -3.7 | -5.4 | -9.1 |
| 12 | Lions | 1 | 8 | -2.2 | -5.3 | -5.6 | -10.9 |
| 9 | Rams | 1 | 8 | -2.4 | -10.3 | -4.0 | -14.3 |
Notes for the week:
- Well, we have a new #1 team. With the victory over the Patriots, the Colts take over the top spot. The Saints dipped despite winning, since they struggled against a bottom-tier team and their defense continues to drop.
- The Bengals rose up to #3 from #4 with their win over the Steelers, but the Steelers ended up rising up from #7 to #6. The Ravens leapfrogged the Steelers, taking over the 5th spot, so yes, according to Predictabot, three of the top six teams in the league are in the...AFC North?
- Check out the Vikings...ranked in tenth place despite a 8-1 record.
- What I think we're really seeing in the top ten is a fair match to reality -- One team firing on all cylinders, 3 teams playing high-quality ball, and then a dropoff to a group of about six somewhat interchangeable teams.
- The Giants have fallen to the middle-of-the-road spot, averaging to a 50 rating.
- The Raiders now have the worst offense, but the Rams keep hanging onto the bottom overall spot.
2009 Week ten prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 10:
CHI 17
SFO 24 (-3)
The Niners won by 4, 10-6.
ATL 23 (-1.5)
CAR 13
Another one where Predictabot and I agreed, but the result was the opposite, with the Panthers beating the Falcons 28-19.
TAM 16
MIA 35 (-10)
The Dolphins didn't manage to cover, but they still beat the Bucs 25-23.
DET 17
MIN 38 (-17)
Well, well. I said I'd have to take the Lions, and the final score was 27-10, meaning that the Vikings did indeed fail to cover. Predictabot was wrong on the prediction though.
JAC 7
NYJ 28 (-6.5)
Another one where Predictabot and I were both wrong, as the Jaguars wnded up on top 24-22.
CIN 14
PIT 13 (-7)
Well, Predictabot was right. I guess there's that. Bengals win 18-12.
NOR 38 (-13.5)
STL 10
The closest game of the season...just a 5 point victory for the Saints (28-23). Are things starting to go off-track?
BUF 23
TEN 19 (-6.5)
I said I thought Tennessee would win and not cover, but then the Titans go ahead and rack up a 41-17 win to keep their winning streak alive.
DEN 17 (-3.5)
WAS 3
Ouch. Denver continues its slide, losing 27-17 to the Redskins, and more bad predictions.
KAN 17
OAK 19 (-2)
Instead of 19-17 Oakland it was 16-10 Kansas City. About as dull as expected.
SEA 14
ARI 23 (-8.5)
The final was 31-20 Cardinals, so a little comeback on the betting front.
DAL 24 (-3)
GNB 19
Another one goes south, however, as the Packers beat the Cowboys 17-7.
PHI 26
SDG 21 (-2.5)
I said that everything was looking Philly's way, and yet the Chargers won 31-23.
NWE 13
IND 13 (-3)
Well, well, well. The final ended up 35-34 Indy on a pretty crazy gamble.
BAL 26 (-11)
CLE 9
It was worse than predicted...the Ravens shutout the Browns 16-0.
The last three weeks have been pretty brutal. Picking winners, Predictabot has gone less than 50%, getting 19 out of 39 right. Against the spread it's been even worse, only getting 14 out of 41 right.
For the year it's predicting the winners correctly 62.4% of the time, which is right in line with the historical average. Against the spread it's still above average, at 52.1%, for the year, but that's down a lot from a few weeks back.
CHI 17
SFO 24 (-3)
The Niners won by 4, 10-6.
ATL 23 (-1.5)
CAR 13
Another one where Predictabot and I agreed, but the result was the opposite, with the Panthers beating the Falcons 28-19.
TAM 16
MIA 35 (-10)
The Dolphins didn't manage to cover, but they still beat the Bucs 25-23.
DET 17
MIN 38 (-17)
Well, well. I said I'd have to take the Lions, and the final score was 27-10, meaning that the Vikings did indeed fail to cover. Predictabot was wrong on the prediction though.
JAC 7
NYJ 28 (-6.5)
Another one where Predictabot and I were both wrong, as the Jaguars wnded up on top 24-22.
CIN 14
PIT 13 (-7)
Well, Predictabot was right. I guess there's that. Bengals win 18-12.
NOR 38 (-13.5)
STL 10
The closest game of the season...just a 5 point victory for the Saints (28-23). Are things starting to go off-track?
BUF 23
TEN 19 (-6.5)
I said I thought Tennessee would win and not cover, but then the Titans go ahead and rack up a 41-17 win to keep their winning streak alive.
DEN 17 (-3.5)
WAS 3
Ouch. Denver continues its slide, losing 27-17 to the Redskins, and more bad predictions.
KAN 17
OAK 19 (-2)
Instead of 19-17 Oakland it was 16-10 Kansas City. About as dull as expected.
SEA 14
ARI 23 (-8.5)
The final was 31-20 Cardinals, so a little comeback on the betting front.
DAL 24 (-3)
GNB 19
Another one goes south, however, as the Packers beat the Cowboys 17-7.
PHI 26
SDG 21 (-2.5)
I said that everything was looking Philly's way, and yet the Chargers won 31-23.
NWE 13
IND 13 (-3)
Well, well, well. The final ended up 35-34 Indy on a pretty crazy gamble.
BAL 26 (-11)
CLE 9
It was worse than predicted...the Ravens shutout the Browns 16-0.
The last three weeks have been pretty brutal. Picking winners, Predictabot has gone less than 50%, getting 19 out of 39 right. Against the spread it's been even worse, only getting 14 out of 41 right.
For the year it's predicting the winners correctly 62.4% of the time, which is right in line with the historical average. Against the spread it's still above average, at 52.1%, for the year, but that's down a lot from a few weeks back.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
2009 Week ten
Predicted scores for 2009 week 10:
CHI 17
SFO 24 (-3)
I realize this is being published after the game, but this is what it was.
ATL 23 (-1.5)
CAR 13
I expect the Falcons to handle the Panthers easily.
TAM 16
MIA 35 (-10)
Anything else would be a surprise, but the Bucs did it last week.
DET 17
MIN 38 (-17)
I think I might just have to take the Lions, personally. I went back and checked my data, and there's only been 18 games since 1978 with a 17 point spread. The favored team failed to cover in 10 of the previous 17 games.
JAC 7
NYJ 28 (-6.5)
Well, the Jaguars have a bad offense, and the Jets have a pretty good defense and they're at home, so I feel pretty confident about this one.
CIN 14
PIT 13 (-7)
After this week, when the Steelers actually beat the Bengals, maybe Predictabot will start favoring them a little more. Still, I personally expect this to be a pretty close game, but I think the Steelers will come out on top. I'm about 50/50 on whether they'll cover though.
NOR 38 (-13.5)
STL 10
Neeeeext.
BUF 23
TEN 19 (-6.5)
Hmm, interesting. I suspect the final result will be somewhere between the bookies and Predictabot, and that Tennessee will win, but not cover.
DEN 17 (-3.5)
WAS 3
Just what Denver needed...one of the worst offenses in the league.
KAN 17
OAK 19 (-2)
I don't mean to be rude, but I mean..who *cares* about this game? It's too close to call anyway.
SEA 14
ARI 23 (-8.5)
Very close, but Predictabot thinks the Cardinals will barely cover.
DAL 24 (-3)
GNB 19
Given Green Bay's performances lately, I would tend to agree with this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Romo have problems in Wisconsin in November.
PHI 26
SDG 21 (-2.5)
Predictabot has the Eagles better across the board than the Chargers, and even home field advantage isn't enough to give the Chargers the nod.
NWE 13
IND 13 (-3)
Aside from the Steelers/Bengals match, I'm really interested in this game. I think the Patriots have a great shot to handle the Colts their first loss, but I wouldn't be surprised either way.
BAL 26 (-11)
CLE 9
Not hard to believe.
CHI 17
SFO 24 (-3)
I realize this is being published after the game, but this is what it was.
ATL 23 (-1.5)
CAR 13
I expect the Falcons to handle the Panthers easily.
TAM 16
MIA 35 (-10)
Anything else would be a surprise, but the Bucs did it last week.
DET 17
MIN 38 (-17)
I think I might just have to take the Lions, personally. I went back and checked my data, and there's only been 18 games since 1978 with a 17 point spread. The favored team failed to cover in 10 of the previous 17 games.
JAC 7
NYJ 28 (-6.5)
Well, the Jaguars have a bad offense, and the Jets have a pretty good defense and they're at home, so I feel pretty confident about this one.
CIN 14
PIT 13 (-7)
After this week, when the Steelers actually beat the Bengals, maybe Predictabot will start favoring them a little more. Still, I personally expect this to be a pretty close game, but I think the Steelers will come out on top. I'm about 50/50 on whether they'll cover though.
NOR 38 (-13.5)
STL 10
Neeeeext.
BUF 23
TEN 19 (-6.5)
Hmm, interesting. I suspect the final result will be somewhere between the bookies and Predictabot, and that Tennessee will win, but not cover.
DEN 17 (-3.5)
WAS 3
Just what Denver needed...one of the worst offenses in the league.
KAN 17
OAK 19 (-2)
I don't mean to be rude, but I mean..who *cares* about this game? It's too close to call anyway.
SEA 14
ARI 23 (-8.5)
Very close, but Predictabot thinks the Cardinals will barely cover.
DAL 24 (-3)
GNB 19
Given Green Bay's performances lately, I would tend to agree with this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Romo have problems in Wisconsin in November.
PHI 26
SDG 21 (-2.5)
Predictabot has the Eagles better across the board than the Chargers, and even home field advantage isn't enough to give the Chargers the nod.
NWE 13
IND 13 (-3)
Aside from the Steelers/Bengals match, I'm really interested in this game. I think the Patriots have a great shot to handle the Colts their first loss, but I wouldn't be surprised either way.
BAL 26 (-11)
CLE 9
Not hard to believe.
2009 Week nine Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | Saints | 8 | 0 | 5.5 | 15.4 | 0.1 | 15.5 |
| 82 | Colts | 8 | 0 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 10.1 |
| 75 | Patriots | 6 | 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 12.4 |
| 72 | Bengals | 6 | 2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 7.4 |
| 69 | Broncos | 6 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.3 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| 65 | Falcons | 5 | 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 7.5 |
| 64 | Steelers | 6 | 2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| 64 | Vikings | 7 | 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | -1.5 | 6.6 |
| 64 | Cowboys | 6 | 2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 7.0 |
| 61 | Ravens | 4 | 4 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 8.3 |
| 60 | Cardinals | 5 | 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 5.2 |
| 59 | Jets | 4 | 4 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 6.2 | 5.3 |
| 56 | Eagles | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 5.6 |
| 52 | Dolphins | 3 | 5 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 5.7 |
| 50 | Giants | 5 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.4 | -0.5 | 2.8 |
| 49 | Texans | 5 | 4 | 1.4 | 2.8 | -0.7 | 2.0 |
| 46 | Chargers | 5 | 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | -3.1 | 0.6 |
| 42 | 49ers | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 41 | Packers | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 2.3 | -1.7 | 0.7 |
| 38 | Bears | 4 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -2.5 | -1.7 |
| 38 | Seahawks | 3 | 5 | -0.1 | -1.7 | 0.3 | -1.4 |
| 34 | Bills | 3 | 5 | -0.4 | -6.9 | 1.5 | -5.4 |
| 34 | Panthers | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | -2.8 | -0.9 | -3.7 |
| 24 | Jaguars | 4 | 4 | 0.3 | -3.9 | -4.9 | -8.8 |
| 21 | Titans | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -6.4 | -7.2 |
| 20 | Raiders | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | -10.8 | -1.3 | -12.2 |
| 18 | Browns | 1 | 7 | -1.0 | -9.4 | -2.3 | -11.7 |
| 17 | Redskins | 2 | 6 | -2.4 | -10.7 | 0.2 | -10.5 |
| 14 | Chiefs | 1 | 7 | -2.4 | -5.7 | -3.7 | -9.4 |
| 12 | Buccaneers | 1 | 7 | -2.1 | -3.4 | -6.0 | -9.4 |
| 9 | Lions | 1 | 7 | -2.1 | -5.1 | -6.3 | -11.4 |
| 2 | Rams | 1 | 7 | -1.9 | -11.3 | -5.8 | -17.1 |
Notes for the week:
- It's still the Saints up top, but the Colts are now nipping right on their heels.
- The Colts defense has taken over the top slot from the Broncos, who have slipped down to 4rd behind the Colts, Pats, and Jets.
- The Steelers are moving up the board, improving from a 59 AvgRating up to 64, and they're now listed in the top 5 AFC teams.
2009 Week nine prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 9:
WAS 3
ATL 22 (-10)
The Falcons won, 31-17, so two good predictions.
ARI 21
CHI 19 (-3)
Predictabot gave Arizona the nod, but the Cardinals went ahead and took everything else too, winning 41-21.
BAL 17 (-3)
CIN 21
The actual final here was 17-7 Bengals, so we're continuing the good streak of predictions.
HOU 13
IND 28 (-9)
A lot closer than expected...the Colts won 28-13, and I get my first miss against the spread.
KAN 22
JAC 21 (-6.5)
It was a close game, but Jacksonville ended up winning 24-21.
MIA 14
NWE 28 (-10.5)
I said that I thought this might be closer, but the final was a pretty good match at 27-17 Patriots.
GNB 28 (-9.5)
TAM 16
Major upset it is, the Bucs won 38-28. I sure don't know what to expect from the Packers.
CAR 16
NOR 38 (-13)
This was the closest game of the year for the Saints...and they only won 30-20.
DET 14
SEA 28 (-10)
Seattle ended up on top 32-20. Both predictions accurate.
SDG 24
NYG 31 (-5)
Ouch. Giants lost 21-20 to the Chargers. A few weeks back they were near the top, but now the Giants are in a sad sad place.
TEN 14
SFO 31 (-4)
Hah, well shows you what Predictabot knows. The Titans made it two wins in a row, ending up ahead 34-27.
DAL 22
PHI 26 (-3)
This was a nice tight game, but it just went the other way. The Cowboys won 20-16, and managed to give me two wrong predictions.
PIT 7 (-3)
DEN 17
I love being wrong. Steelers win 28-10.
WAS 3
ATL 22 (-10)
The Falcons won, 31-17, so two good predictions.
ARI 21
CHI 19 (-3)
Predictabot gave Arizona the nod, but the Cardinals went ahead and took everything else too, winning 41-21.
BAL 17 (-3)
CIN 21
The actual final here was 17-7 Bengals, so we're continuing the good streak of predictions.
HOU 13
IND 28 (-9)
A lot closer than expected...the Colts won 28-13, and I get my first miss against the spread.
KAN 22
JAC 21 (-6.5)
It was a close game, but Jacksonville ended up winning 24-21.
MIA 14
NWE 28 (-10.5)
I said that I thought this might be closer, but the final was a pretty good match at 27-17 Patriots.
GNB 28 (-9.5)
TAM 16
Major upset it is, the Bucs won 38-28. I sure don't know what to expect from the Packers.
CAR 16
NOR 38 (-13)
This was the closest game of the year for the Saints...and they only won 30-20.
DET 14
SEA 28 (-10)
Seattle ended up on top 32-20. Both predictions accurate.
SDG 24
NYG 31 (-5)
Ouch. Giants lost 21-20 to the Chargers. A few weeks back they were near the top, but now the Giants are in a sad sad place.
TEN 14
SFO 31 (-4)
Hah, well shows you what Predictabot knows. The Titans made it two wins in a row, ending up ahead 34-27.
DAL 22
PHI 26 (-3)
This was a nice tight game, but it just went the other way. The Cowboys won 20-16, and managed to give me two wrong predictions.
PIT 7 (-3)
DEN 17
I love being wrong. Steelers win 28-10.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
2009 Week nine
Predicted scores for 2009 week 9:
WAS 3
ATL 22 (-10)
This feels like a safe bet to me. The Redskins have no offense, and the Falcons are a solid team.
ARI 21
CHI 19 (-3)
Interesting choice here. The bookies seem to thing the two teams are even, but Predictabot definitely is giving Arizona the nod. I think that if Warner can shake off his bad game, they could upset.
BAL 17 (-3)
CIN 21
Well, as a Steelers fan I'm not sure which outcome to hope for here. The AFC North is suddenly looking like a competitive division now that the Ravens took down the Broncos. My gut is that the Ravens aren't going to manage it this year, despite their #2 offense.
HOU 13
IND 28 (-9)
I'll be curious to see how the Colts respond to the scare from the Niners last week, but I think they are going to quietly keep racking up wins.
KAN 22
JAC 21 (-6.5)
A tight game predicted here, but when you're dealing with two teams that are essentially out of the playoffs already, it's hard to get too excited.
MIA 14
NWE 28 (-10.5)
I suspect this will be closer, and that the Dolphins may come close enough to be the one to bet on.
GNB 28 (-9.5)
TAM 16
Anything else would be a pretty major upset.
CAR 16
NOR 38 (-13)
Same thing here. Until someone really stops the Saints consistently they are going to be predicted way on top.
DET 14
SEA 28 (-10)
Another dull matchup, the Lions didn't help themselves with their loss to the Rams. They're definitely more dangerous with Culpepper in there, but that's not doing them any good for the future. They clearly had nowhere to go but up after last year, but it might be a rough trip.
SDG 24
NYG 31 (-5)
Can the Giants slow their slide? They're now ranked by Predictabot as a middle-of-the-road team. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they are ranked even lower.
TEN 14
SFO 31 (-4)
Can Vince Young turn it around? Maybe, but not this week.
DAL 22
PHI 26 (-3)
The Eagles are the worst-ranked 5-2 team (mostly thanks to the Raiders loss), but the Cowboys are only just ahead of them in the rankings. Philly gets the nod mostly by home field advantage, but the extra point is enough to put them as predicted to beat the spread.
PIT 7 (-3)
DEN 17
I have to say I'm a little surprised to see the Steelers favored here, largely because they are playing at Denver. Still, they are the defending champs on a 4-game winning streak, and the Broncos just tumbled to the Ravens.
My gut is telling me it'll be a Steelers victory, but then, it almost always does. If the Steelers spread the ball around to the weapons and avoid Champ Bailey, and their OL keeps playing like they have been, they should do ok. The Broncos still have the top-rated defense, however, so it could be a heck of a game.
I'm going to predict a curiously quiet 13-6 victory for the Steelers.
WAS 3
ATL 22 (-10)
This feels like a safe bet to me. The Redskins have no offense, and the Falcons are a solid team.
ARI 21
CHI 19 (-3)
Interesting choice here. The bookies seem to thing the two teams are even, but Predictabot definitely is giving Arizona the nod. I think that if Warner can shake off his bad game, they could upset.
BAL 17 (-3)
CIN 21
Well, as a Steelers fan I'm not sure which outcome to hope for here. The AFC North is suddenly looking like a competitive division now that the Ravens took down the Broncos. My gut is that the Ravens aren't going to manage it this year, despite their #2 offense.
HOU 13
IND 28 (-9)
I'll be curious to see how the Colts respond to the scare from the Niners last week, but I think they are going to quietly keep racking up wins.
KAN 22
JAC 21 (-6.5)
A tight game predicted here, but when you're dealing with two teams that are essentially out of the playoffs already, it's hard to get too excited.
MIA 14
NWE 28 (-10.5)
I suspect this will be closer, and that the Dolphins may come close enough to be the one to bet on.
GNB 28 (-9.5)
TAM 16
Anything else would be a pretty major upset.
CAR 16
NOR 38 (-13)
Same thing here. Until someone really stops the Saints consistently they are going to be predicted way on top.
DET 14
SEA 28 (-10)
Another dull matchup, the Lions didn't help themselves with their loss to the Rams. They're definitely more dangerous with Culpepper in there, but that's not doing them any good for the future. They clearly had nowhere to go but up after last year, but it might be a rough trip.
SDG 24
NYG 31 (-5)
Can the Giants slow their slide? They're now ranked by Predictabot as a middle-of-the-road team. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they are ranked even lower.
TEN 14
SFO 31 (-4)
Can Vince Young turn it around? Maybe, but not this week.
DAL 22
PHI 26 (-3)
The Eagles are the worst-ranked 5-2 team (mostly thanks to the Raiders loss), but the Cowboys are only just ahead of them in the rankings. Philly gets the nod mostly by home field advantage, but the extra point is enough to put them as predicted to beat the spread.
PIT 7 (-3)
DEN 17
I have to say I'm a little surprised to see the Steelers favored here, largely because they are playing at Denver. Still, they are the defending champs on a 4-game winning streak, and the Broncos just tumbled to the Ravens.
My gut is telling me it'll be a Steelers victory, but then, it almost always does. If the Steelers spread the ball around to the weapons and avoid Champ Bailey, and their OL keeps playing like they have been, they should do ok. The Broncos still have the top-rated defense, however, so it could be a heck of a game.
I'm going to predict a curiously quiet 13-6 victory for the Steelers.
2009 Week eight Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
I've changed the "AvgRank" column at the left, as it was confusing and hard to judge, I think. That was the average rank of the team in terms of the AvgWin, AvgOff, and AvgDef. The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | Saints | 6 | 0 | 5.2 | 17.3 | 1.2 | 18.5 |
| 80 | Colts | 7 | 0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 9.9 |
| 80 | Broncos | 6 | 1 | 4.1 | -0.8 | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| 78 | Patriots | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 13.1 |
| 73 | Bengals | 5 | 2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 7.5 |
| 69 | Vikings | 7 | 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | -1.5 | 6.6 |
| 67 | Ravens | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 10.4 |
| 65 | Falcons | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 8.3 |
| 62 | Jets | 4 | 4 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| 62 | Cowboys | 5 | 2 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
| 61 | Eagles | 5 | 2 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 5.9 |
| 59 | Steelers | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | -1.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 59 | Cardinals | 4 | 3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| 59 | Dolphins | 3 | 4 | 1.7 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 6.6 |
| 55 | Packers | 4 | 3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| 55 | Giants | 5 | 3 | 1.9 | 4.3 | -1.4 | 2.9 |
| 53 | 49ers | 3 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| 51 | Texans | 5 | 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | -2.3 | 0.3 |
| 49 | Bears | 4 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | -1.0 | 0.1 |
| 47 | Chargers | 4 | 3 | 1.4 | 4.6 | -3.9 | 0.7 |
| 40 | Seahawks | 2 | 5 | -0.4 | -1.7 | 0.6 | -1.2 |
| 35 | Bills | 3 | 5 | -0.4 | -6.8 | 1.6 | -5.2 |
| 35 | Panthers | 3 | 4 | 0.3 | -2.5 | -2.8 | -5.3 |
| 24 | Jaguars | 3 | 4 | -0.3 | -4.3 | -5.7 | -10.1 |
| 23 | Chiefs | 1 | 6 | -1.6 | -6.1 | -3.1 | -9.3 |
| 22 | Redskins | 2 | 5 | -1.7 | -12.0 | 0.3 | -11.7 |
| 21 | Raiders | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | -10.8 | -1.3 | -12.2 |
| 19 | Titans | 1 | 6 | -1.1 | -2.8 | -6.5 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Browns | 1 | 7 | -1.0 | -9.4 | -2.3 | -11.7 |
| 17 | Lions | 1 | 6 | -1.6 | -4.9 | -5.5 | -10.3 |
| 11 | Buccaneers | 0 | 7 | -2.6 | -5.6 | -6.8 | -12.4 |
| 2 | Rams | 1 | 7 | -1.9 | -11.3 | -5.8 | -17.1 |
Notes for the week:
- The Saints remain on top, with their stunning offense. They dropped slightly this week, but they are still among the top offenses since the merger at this point.
- The Broncos slid down to 4th place with their loss to the Ravens.
- The Colts slide a little bit, but they are still pretty consistent, and seem to be flying under the radar a little.
- How bad are the Rams? They won a game and are *still* the last ranked team.
- The table seems unbalanced. There are only 4 teams with Ratings of 75 and above, but there are nine teams at 25 or below. The next few weeks are going to really show which of the mid-range teams can move up and make it to the next level.
2009 Week eight prediction results
Predicted scores for 2009 week 8:
DEN 19
BAL 14 (-3.5)
The start of an awful, awful week. Ravens upset 30-7.
HOU 16 (-3.5)
BUF 20
I thought the Texans would win, and they did, 31-10, but wrong predictions.
CLE 13
CHI 23 (-13.5)
The Bears covered, beating the Browns 30-6, but the spread prediction was wrong again.
SEA 17
DAL 20 (-9.5)
Dallas smacked the Seahawks 38-17, so they covered, and another wrong spread prediction.
STL 16
DET 31 (-4)
Another bad one. Rams won 17-10.
MIN 19
GNB 24 (-3)
And the streak continues. The Vikings won 38-26, and we're still waiting for a good bet.
SFO 10
IND 23 (-12)
The Colts won, but only 18-14, so the spread prediction was again wrong.
MIA 10
NYJ 17 (-3)
Wrong again. Dolphins win 30-25.
OAK 13
SDG 27 (-17)
Finally, the Raiders come through. The Chargers won 24-16, so they did not cover the spread, as predicted.
JAC 28
TEN 24 (-3)
The Titans finally came out on top, now that they've released Myron's curse. They won 30-13.
CAR 9
ARI 27 (-9.5)
I said these were two teams going in opposite directions, but maybe I had it backwards. The Panthers ended up on top 34-21 as Old Man Warner finally fell apart.
NYG 23
PHI 21 (-2)
Eagles smack down the Giants, 40-17.
ATL 17
NOR 28 (-10)
Quite a game, but the Saints only won 35-27, so they did not cover the spread.
So...the worst week of the year by far. One ONE prediction correct against the spread, and that was just that the Chargers couldn't cover.
The system is 65% accurate picking winners straight up, and now just 54% against the spread.
DEN 19
BAL 14 (-3.5)
The start of an awful, awful week. Ravens upset 30-7.
HOU 16 (-3.5)
BUF 20
I thought the Texans would win, and they did, 31-10, but wrong predictions.
CLE 13
CHI 23 (-13.5)
The Bears covered, beating the Browns 30-6, but the spread prediction was wrong again.
SEA 17
DAL 20 (-9.5)
Dallas smacked the Seahawks 38-17, so they covered, and another wrong spread prediction.
STL 16
DET 31 (-4)
Another bad one. Rams won 17-10.
MIN 19
GNB 24 (-3)
And the streak continues. The Vikings won 38-26, and we're still waiting for a good bet.
SFO 10
IND 23 (-12)
The Colts won, but only 18-14, so the spread prediction was again wrong.
MIA 10
NYJ 17 (-3)
Wrong again. Dolphins win 30-25.
OAK 13
SDG 27 (-17)
Finally, the Raiders come through. The Chargers won 24-16, so they did not cover the spread, as predicted.
JAC 28
TEN 24 (-3)
The Titans finally came out on top, now that they've released Myron's curse. They won 30-13.
CAR 9
ARI 27 (-9.5)
I said these were two teams going in opposite directions, but maybe I had it backwards. The Panthers ended up on top 34-21 as Old Man Warner finally fell apart.
NYG 23
PHI 21 (-2)
Eagles smack down the Giants, 40-17.
ATL 17
NOR 28 (-10)
Quite a game, but the Saints only won 35-27, so they did not cover the spread.
So...the worst week of the year by far. One ONE prediction correct against the spread, and that was just that the Chargers couldn't cover.
The system is 65% accurate picking winners straight up, and now just 54% against the spread.
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