Last week, Predictabot was 3-1 picking the winners, but a poor 1-3 against the spread, only getting the Jets/Chargers correct.
For this week:
Game: Jets (11-7) @ Colts (15-2)
Predicted score: Jets 17, Colts 21
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 62.7%
Favorite: Colts by 8.5
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 64.0%
I'd be tempted to take this bet, but if the Colts get out to an early lead, it's going to be brutal.
Game: Vikings (13-4) @ Saints (14-3)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Saints 24
Predicted winner: Saints by 3
Confidence of victory: 59.6%
Favorite: Saints by 3.5
Bet recommendation: Vikings
Bet confidence: 52.5%
Personally, I'd bet Saints all the way.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Saturday, January 16, 2010
2009 Divisional Round
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 102:
Game: Cardinals (11-6) @ Saints (13-3)
Predicted score: Cardinals 20, Saints 27
Predicted winner: Saints by 7
Confidence of victory: 71.0%
Favorite: Saints by 7
Bet recommendation: Cardinals
Bet confidence: 50.0%
Well, we kick off with a larger prediction, but it's just even with the spread, so Predictabot would go with the Cardinals. Personally, I think the Saints have another week in them.
Game: Ravens (10-7) @ Colts (14-2)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Colts 21
Predicted winner: Colts by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Colts by 6.5
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 67.6%
This could be a good one. The difference-maker is that all year, the Colts were winning the close ones, and the Ravens often weren't. We'll see if the 3-week layoff for Manning hurts them (again).
Game: Cowboys (12-5) @ Vikings (12-4)
Predicted score: Cowboys 20, Vikings 21
Predicted winner: Vikings by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Vikings by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 52.3%
I think the Cowboys are going to keep rolling here and take out the Vikings, personally.
Game: Jets (10-7) @ Chargers (13-3)
Predicted score: Jets 20, Chargers 21
Predicted winner: Chargers by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Chargers by 7
Bet recommendation: Jets
Bet confidence: 67.6%
This may end being the "game of the week" for me. The Jets are on an impressive roll with the best defense in the league and a rookie QB. The Chargers are healthy, rolling on a massive winning streak, and have kept up the pressure.
My gut is telling me that the Chargers may be in the best position, but of course, my gut told me last week that the Packers were going to spank the Cardinals.
2009 Wildcard Round
Since I didn't get to this report last week, I'll just do a summary.
Predictabot was pretty unsure about this set. It called both the Packers/Cardinals and the Jets/Bengals as too close to call. It called the Pats to win by 4 (just ahead of the spread) and the Cowboys to also win by 4 (just ahead of the spread).
It was 1-1 on winning predictions, and 3-1 against the spread, which isn't too bad for a wildcard round.
Predictabot was pretty unsure about this set. It called both the Packers/Cardinals and the Jets/Bengals as too close to call. It called the Pats to win by 4 (just ahead of the spread) and the Cowboys to also win by 4 (just ahead of the spread).
It was 1-1 on winning predictions, and 3-1 against the spread, which isn't too bad for a wildcard round.
2009 Week seventeen Rankings (end of regular season)
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | Colts | 14 | 2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 6.2 |
| 78 | Patriots | 10 | 6 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 9.8 |
| 78 | Saints | 13 | 3 | 5.2 | 10.1 | -1.3 | 8.8 |
| 77 | Cowboys | 11 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 6.4 | 6.7 |
| 76 | Vikings | 12 | 4 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 8.1 |
| 76 | Chargers | 13 | 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 6.3 |
| 74 | Packers | 11 | 5 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 8.3 |
| 73 | Ravens | 9 | 7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 8.0 |
| 73 | Jets | 9 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| 70 | Eagles | 11 | 5 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 5.4 |
| 64 | Falcons | 9 | 7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3.6 |
| 63 | Bengals | 10 | 6 | 2.7 | -2.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 63 | Panthers | 8 | 8 | 1.8 | -1.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| 60 | Steelers | 9 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 60 | Texans | 9 | 7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | -0.6 | 2.1 |
| 59 | Cardinals | 10 | 6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 58 | 49ers | 8 | 8 | 0.8 | -2.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 56 | Broncos | 8 | 8 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 53 | Dolphins | 7 | 9 | 0.8 | 2.4 | -1.8 | 0.6 |
| 52 | Giants | 8 | 8 | 1.6 | 4.4 | -4.6 | -0.2 |
| 50 | Titans | 8 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.4 | -2.2 |
| 46 | Bears | 7 | 9 | -0.2 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -2.6 |
| 45 | Bills | 6 | 10 | -0.9 | -5.0 | 1.8 | -3.2 |
| 39 | Jaguars | 7 | 9 | -0.2 | -3.6 | -2.6 | -6.2 |
| 35 | Redskins | 4 | 12 | -3.3 | -5.9 | 0.6 | -5.4 |
| 32 | Browns | 5 | 11 | -2.1 | -5.7 | -2.1 | -7.8 |
| 31 | Buccaneers | 3 | 13 | -3.4 | -5.1 | -1.7 | -6.8 |
| 30 | Seahawks | 5 | 11 | -2.6 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -8.1 |
| 30 | Raiders | 5 | 11 | -1.9 | -8.4 | -1.6 | -10.0 |
| 27 | Chiefs | 4 | 12 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -5.9 | -8.5 |
| 13 | Lions | 2 | 14 | -5.1 | -4.4 | -8.4 | -12.8 |
| 8 | Rams | 1 | 15 | -6.1 | -10.8 | -4.9 | -15.7 |
Notes for the week:
- The Colts end the season in the top spot. even with their two-game forfeiture at the end of the year, they still ended up on top.
- The Saints barely retook the #2 spot from the Patriots.
- The Chargers continue to push and rise up the chart.
- The Steelers ended their year with a 60 average rating. Disappointing.
- The Jets end the year with the #1 ranked defense, with the Cowboys close behind.
2009 Week seventeen prediction results
Better late than never, right?
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 17:
Game: Colts (14-2) @ Bills (6-10)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Bills by 8
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 82.0%
Actual score: Colts 7, Bills 30
Actual winner: Bills by 23
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Not a huge surprise here, since the Colts weren't playing to win.
Game: Saints (13-3) @ Panthers (8-8)
Predicted score: Saints 21, Panthers 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Panthers by 7
Bet recommendation: Saints
Bet confidence: 69.7%
Actual score: Saints 10, Panthers 23
Actual winner: Panthers by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Same thing here.
Game: Jaguars (7-9) @ Browns (5-11)
Predicted score: Jaguars 20, Browns 21
Predicted winner: Browns by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Browns by 1
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 48.2%
Actual score: Jaguars 17, Browns 23
Actual winner: Browns by 6
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Eagles (11-5) @ Cowboys (11-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Actual score: Eagles 0, Cowboys 24
Actual winner: Cowboys by 24
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
I was a little surprised by this result, as in my head the Eagles were the better team. However, you can't argue with results (especially two weeks in a row).
Game: Bears (7-9) @ Lions (2-14)
Predicted score: Bears 23, Lions 21
Predicted winner: Bears by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Bears by 3
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 47.3%
Actual score: Bears 37, Lions 23
Actual winner: Bears by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Patriots (10-6) @ Texans (9-7)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Texans 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Texans by 7
Bet recommendation: Patriots
Bet confidence: 69.7%
Actual score: Patriots 27, Texans 34
Actual winner: Texans by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Another game that wasn't important to the Pats, so they weren't going full out.
Game: Steelers (9-7) @ Dolphins (7-9)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Dolphins 21
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 56.9%
Actual score: Steelers 30, Dolphins 24
Actual winner: Steelers by 6
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Giants (8-8) @ Vikings (12-4)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Vikings 24
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Vikings by 8
Bet recommendation: Giants
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Actual score: Giants 7, Vikings 44
Actual winner: Vikings by 37
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Sometimes even if you don't have anything to play for, you still do.
Game: Bengals (10-6) @ Jets (9-7)
Predicted score: Bengals 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Jets by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Bengals 0, Jets 37
Actual winner: Jets by 37
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
#4 of the games this week in which one of the two teams sleepwalked through the game.
Game: 49ers (8-8) @ Rams (1-15)
Predicted score: 49ers 20, Rams 16
Predicted winner: 49ers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: 49ers by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Actual score: 49ers 28, Rams 6
Actual winner: 49ers by 22
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Falcons (9-7) @ Buccaneers (3-13)
Predicted score: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Falcons by 2
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 52.6%
Actual score: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 10
Actual winner: Falcons by 10
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Packers (11-5) @ Cardinals (10-6)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Cardinals 21
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.3%
Actual score: Packers 33, Cardinals 7
Actual winner: Packers by 26
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Chiefs (4-12) @ Broncos (8-8)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Broncos 24
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Broncos by 10
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 55.3%
Actual score: Chiefs 44, Broncos 24
Actual winner: Chiefs by 20
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Ravens (9-7) @ Raiders (5-11)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Ravens by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Ravens by 10.5
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 70.2%
Actual score: Ravens 21, Raiders 13
Actual winner: Ravens by 8
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Redskins (4-12) @ Chargers (13-3)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Chargers 24
Predicted winner: Chargers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Chargers by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 61.2%
Actual score: Redskins 20, Chargers 23
Actual winner: Chargers by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Titans (8-8) @ Seahawks (5-11)
Predicted score: Titans 21, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Titans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 72.8%
Actual score: Titans 17, Seahawks 13
Actual winner: Titans by 4
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Correct winning predictions: 8-5
Correct bet predictions: 6-10
Well, predictions in the last week are often a little dicier, since people sit starters or really are playing for nothing.
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 17:
Game: Colts (14-2) @ Bills (6-10)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Bills by 8
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 82.0%
Actual score: Colts 7, Bills 30
Actual winner: Bills by 23
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Not a huge surprise here, since the Colts weren't playing to win.
Game: Saints (13-3) @ Panthers (8-8)
Predicted score: Saints 21, Panthers 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Panthers by 7
Bet recommendation: Saints
Bet confidence: 69.7%
Actual score: Saints 10, Panthers 23
Actual winner: Panthers by 13
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Same thing here.
Game: Jaguars (7-9) @ Browns (5-11)
Predicted score: Jaguars 20, Browns 21
Predicted winner: Browns by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Browns by 1
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 48.2%
Actual score: Jaguars 17, Browns 23
Actual winner: Browns by 6
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Eagles (11-5) @ Cowboys (11-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.6%
Actual score: Eagles 0, Cowboys 24
Actual winner: Cowboys by 24
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
I was a little surprised by this result, as in my head the Eagles were the better team. However, you can't argue with results (especially two weeks in a row).
Game: Bears (7-9) @ Lions (2-14)
Predicted score: Bears 23, Lions 21
Predicted winner: Bears by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Bears by 3
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 47.3%
Actual score: Bears 37, Lions 23
Actual winner: Bears by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Patriots (10-6) @ Texans (9-7)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Texans 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Texans by 7
Bet recommendation: Patriots
Bet confidence: 69.7%
Actual score: Patriots 27, Texans 34
Actual winner: Texans by 7
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Another game that wasn't important to the Pats, so they weren't going full out.
Game: Steelers (9-7) @ Dolphins (7-9)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Dolphins 21
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 56.9%
Actual score: Steelers 30, Dolphins 24
Actual winner: Steelers by 6
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Giants (8-8) @ Vikings (12-4)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Vikings 24
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Vikings by 8
Bet recommendation: Giants
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Actual score: Giants 7, Vikings 44
Actual winner: Vikings by 37
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Sometimes even if you don't have anything to play for, you still do.
Game: Bengals (10-6) @ Jets (9-7)
Predicted score: Bengals 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: Jets by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Bengals 0, Jets 37
Actual winner: Jets by 37
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
#4 of the games this week in which one of the two teams sleepwalked through the game.
Game: 49ers (8-8) @ Rams (1-15)
Predicted score: 49ers 20, Rams 16
Predicted winner: 49ers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.7%
Favorite: 49ers by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Actual score: 49ers 28, Rams 6
Actual winner: 49ers by 22
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Falcons (9-7) @ Buccaneers (3-13)
Predicted score: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Falcons by 2
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 52.6%
Actual score: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 10
Actual winner: Falcons by 10
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Packers (11-5) @ Cardinals (10-6)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Cardinals 21
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.7%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.3%
Actual score: Packers 33, Cardinals 7
Actual winner: Packers by 26
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Chiefs (4-12) @ Broncos (8-8)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Broncos 24
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Broncos by 10
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 55.3%
Actual score: Chiefs 44, Broncos 24
Actual winner: Chiefs by 20
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Ravens (9-7) @ Raiders (5-11)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Ravens by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.3%
Favorite: Ravens by 10.5
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 70.2%
Actual score: Ravens 21, Raiders 13
Actual winner: Ravens by 8
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Game: Redskins (4-12) @ Chargers (13-3)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Chargers 24
Predicted winner: Chargers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Chargers by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 61.2%
Actual score: Redskins 20, Chargers 23
Actual winner: Chargers by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Game: Titans (8-8) @ Seahawks (5-11)
Predicted score: Titans 21, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Titans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 72.8%
Actual score: Titans 17, Seahawks 13
Actual winner: Titans by 4
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Correct winning predictions: 8-5
Correct bet predictions: 6-10
Well, predictions in the last week are often a little dicier, since people sit starters or really are playing for nothing.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
2009 Week seventeen
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 17:
Game: Colts (14-1) @ Bills (5-10)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Bills by 8
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 81.9%
This is clearly a result of the expectation of few starters playing for the Colts. I'm tempted to give Predictabot a pass on this game, but that becomes a judgment call after a while.
Game: Saints (13-2) @ Panthers (7-8)
Predicted score: Saints 21, Panthers 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Panthers by 7
Bet recommendation: Saints
Bet confidence: 69.6%
It's not hard to imagine the Panthers winning, and again the lack of anything to play for will likely make this a snoozer.
Game: Jaguars (7-8) @ Browns (4-11)
Predicted score: Jaguars 20, Browns 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Browns by 1
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 50.2%
This one only matters for the people who want to see if Eric Mangini will have a job next year.
Game: Eagles (11-4) @ Cowboys (10-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Now this has potential. These two teams may well end up facing each other in the playoffs, and could even do so in the wildcard round.
Game: Bears (6-9) @ Lions (2-13)
Predicted score: Bears 23, Lions 21
Predicted winner: Bears by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Bears by 3
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 47.3%
Chicago, I hope you enjoyed getting to know Jay Cutler.
Game: Patriots (10-5) @ Texans (8-7)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Texans 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Texans by 7
Bet recommendation: Patriots
Bet confidence: 69.6%
Ugh. The Patriots beating the Texans would be a huge boost to the Steelers playoff chances. It depends if the Patriots want to finish the regular season strongly or rest up. The Texans have been inconsistent, but are playing hard at the end of the year.
Game: Steelers (8-7) @ Dolphins (7-8)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Dolphins 21
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.6%
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 56.8%
Do or die for the Steelers to get in. The Dolphins can only be spoilers, as they are eliminated from the playoffs. I think the Steelers are primed to win, but I suspect it won't be enough for them to make the playoffs.
Game: Giants (8-7) @ Vikings (11-4)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Vikings 24
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 8
Bet recommendation: Giants
Bet confidence: 62.9%
It's too late for the Giants, as there are already six teams with 10 wins in the NFC. The Vikings are playing to regain a bye from the Eagles.
Game: Bengals (10-5) @ Jets (8-7)
Predicted score: Bengals 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Jets by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 65.6%
A very interesting matchup here, as this is another potential playoff preview, and possibly a preview of the #4/#5 wildcard game next weekend. Steelers fans have to root for the Bengals here, as the Jets hold tiebreakers over the Steelers.
Game: 49ers (7-8) @ Rams (1-14)
Predicted score: 49ers 20, Rams 16
Predicted winner: 49ers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: 49ers by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Snoooooze
Game: Falcons (8-7) @ Buccaneers (3-12)
Predicted score: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Falcons by 2
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 52.5%
Snoooze pt 2.
Game: Packers (10-5) @ Cardinals (10-5)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Cardinals 21
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.6%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.2%
Another quality matchup, but only jostling for position. I don't know if either of these teams can get into a bye position, offhand.
Game: Chiefs (3-12) @ Broncos (8-7)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Broncos 24
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Broncos by 10
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 55.2%
The Broncos are playing a few people down, and I hope it'll cost them. While the Steelers have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, they do NOT have a tiebreaker over the Broncos if there is another team from the AFC East or South in the mix, as that would use conference record as the tiebreaker.
Game: Ravens (8-7) @ Raiders (5-10)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Ravens by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Ravens by 10.5
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 70.1%
The Ravens are still likely to make the playoffs, but if the Raiders can pull a miracle here I'll be overjoyed.
Game: Redskins (4-11) @ Chargers (12-3)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Chargers 24
Predicted winner: Chargers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Chargers by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 61.3%
The Chargers aren't playing for anything, as I believe they have the #2 seed locked up.
Game: Titans (7-8) @ Seahawks (5-10)
Predicted score: Titans 21, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Titans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 72.7%
The Titans ended up making it a respectable year after all, but what a trip for them.
For those playing along at home, here's the results we'd like to help the Steelers. There's too many combinations to go into here, but the more of this that happens, the better. Note that only the first two are early games, then two late games, and finally the evening game. The Steelers may not know until midnight if they are making the playoffs.
Steelers beat Dolphins
Patriots beat Texans
Raiders beat Ravens
Chiefs beat Broncos
Bengals beat Jets
Game: Colts (14-1) @ Bills (5-10)
Predicted score: Colts 21, Bills 17
Predicted winner: Colts by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Bills by 8
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 81.9%
This is clearly a result of the expectation of few starters playing for the Colts. I'm tempted to give Predictabot a pass on this game, but that becomes a judgment call after a while.
Game: Saints (13-2) @ Panthers (7-8)
Predicted score: Saints 21, Panthers 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Panthers by 7
Bet recommendation: Saints
Bet confidence: 69.6%
It's not hard to imagine the Panthers winning, and again the lack of anything to play for will likely make this a snoozer.
Game: Jaguars (7-8) @ Browns (4-11)
Predicted score: Jaguars 20, Browns 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Browns by 1
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 50.2%
This one only matters for the people who want to see if Eric Mangini will have a job next year.
Game: Eagles (11-4) @ Cowboys (10-5)
Predicted score: Eagles 17, Cowboys 21
Predicted winner: Cowboys by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Cowboys by 3
Bet recommendation: Cowboys
Bet confidence: 49.5%
Now this has potential. These two teams may well end up facing each other in the playoffs, and could even do so in the wildcard round.
Game: Bears (6-9) @ Lions (2-13)
Predicted score: Bears 23, Lions 21
Predicted winner: Bears by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Bears by 3
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 47.3%
Chicago, I hope you enjoyed getting to know Jay Cutler.
Game: Patriots (10-5) @ Texans (8-7)
Predicted score: Patriots 20, Texans 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Texans by 7
Bet recommendation: Patriots
Bet confidence: 69.6%
Ugh. The Patriots beating the Texans would be a huge boost to the Steelers playoff chances. It depends if the Patriots want to finish the regular season strongly or rest up. The Texans have been inconsistent, but are playing hard at the end of the year.
Game: Steelers (8-7) @ Dolphins (7-8)
Predicted score: Steelers 20, Dolphins 21
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.6%
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 56.8%
Do or die for the Steelers to get in. The Dolphins can only be spoilers, as they are eliminated from the playoffs. I think the Steelers are primed to win, but I suspect it won't be enough for them to make the playoffs.
Game: Giants (8-7) @ Vikings (11-4)
Predicted score: Giants 20, Vikings 24
Predicted winner: Vikings by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 8
Bet recommendation: Giants
Bet confidence: 62.9%
It's too late for the Giants, as there are already six teams with 10 wins in the NFC. The Vikings are playing to regain a bye from the Eagles.
Game: Bengals (10-5) @ Jets (8-7)
Predicted score: Bengals 16, Jets 20
Predicted winner: Jets by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Jets by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Bengals
Bet confidence: 65.6%
A very interesting matchup here, as this is another potential playoff preview, and possibly a preview of the #4/#5 wildcard game next weekend. Steelers fans have to root for the Bengals here, as the Jets hold tiebreakers over the Steelers.
Game: 49ers (7-8) @ Rams (1-14)
Predicted score: 49ers 20, Rams 16
Predicted winner: 49ers by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: 49ers by 7.5
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 62.9%
Snoooooze
Game: Falcons (8-7) @ Buccaneers (3-12)
Predicted score: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Falcons by 2
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 52.5%
Snoooze pt 2.
Game: Packers (10-5) @ Cardinals (10-5)
Predicted score: Packers 20, Cardinals 21
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.6%
Favorite: Cardinals by 3
Bet recommendation: Packers
Bet confidence: 52.2%
Another quality matchup, but only jostling for position. I don't know if either of these teams can get into a bye position, offhand.
Game: Chiefs (3-12) @ Broncos (8-7)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Broncos 24
Predicted winner: Broncos by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Broncos by 10
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 55.2%
The Broncos are playing a few people down, and I hope it'll cost them. While the Steelers have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, they do NOT have a tiebreaker over the Broncos if there is another team from the AFC East or South in the mix, as that would use conference record as the tiebreaker.
Game: Ravens (8-7) @ Raiders (5-10)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Raiders 17
Predicted winner: Ravens by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Ravens by 10.5
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 70.1%
The Ravens are still likely to make the playoffs, but if the Raiders can pull a miracle here I'll be overjoyed.
Game: Redskins (4-11) @ Chargers (12-3)
Predicted score: Redskins 16, Chargers 24
Predicted winner: Chargers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Chargers by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 61.3%
The Chargers aren't playing for anything, as I believe they have the #2 seed locked up.
Game: Titans (7-8) @ Seahawks (5-10)
Predicted score: Titans 21, Seahawks 23
Predicted winner: Seahawks by 2
Confidence of victory: 56.4%
Favorite: Titans by 6
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 72.7%
The Titans ended up making it a respectable year after all, but what a trip for them.
For those playing along at home, here's the results we'd like to help the Steelers. There's too many combinations to go into here, but the more of this that happens, the better. Note that only the first two are early games, then two late games, and finally the evening game. The Steelers may not know until midnight if they are making the playoffs.
Steelers beat Dolphins
Patriots beat Texans
Raiders beat Ravens
Chiefs beat Broncos
Bengals beat Jets
2009 Week sixteen Rankings
For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post.
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
Notes for the week:
Current playoff seeds:
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Patriots
4 : Bengals
5 : Broncos
6 : Jets
7 : Ravens
8 : Texans
9 : Steelers
10 : Dolphins
11 : Jaguars
12 : Titans
13 : Raiders
14 : Bills
15 : Browns
16 : Chiefs
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Eagles
3 : Vikings
4 : Cardinals
5 : Packers
6 : Cowboys
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : Panthers
10 : 49ers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Buccaneers
15 : Lions
16 : Rams
The "AvgRating" column is where the team falls on a range of 0 to 100. A team with an AvgRating of 0 would be the worst in the league at all three of the ratings. A team with 100 would be the best in all three. There's only been one team since 1970 that has managed to have an AvgRating of 100 at the end of the season...the '96 Packers.
| AvgRating | Team | W | L | AvgWin | AvgOff | AvgDef | AvgComb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | Colts | 14 | 1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 8.5 |
| 79 | Patriots | 10 | 5 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 10.5 |
| 78 | Saints | 13 | 2 | 5.6 | 11.2 | -1.0 | 10.2 |
| 74 | Chargers | 12 | 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 7.0 |
| 72 | Ravens | 8 | 7 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 8.9 |
| 71 | Cowboys | 10 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 71 | Eagles | 11 | 4 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 0.2 | 7.0 |
| 67 | Jets | 8 | 7 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 |
| 67 | Vikings | 11 | 4 | 3.5 | 6.2 | -0.1 | 6.0 |
| 66 | Bengals | 10 | 5 | 3.1 | -1.3 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| 65 | Packers | 10 | 5 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 6.4 |
| 62 | Broncos | 8 | 7 | 2.3 | -0.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| 61 | Falcons | 8 | 7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
| 59 | Cardinals | 10 | 5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| 56 | Panthers | 7 | 8 | 0.8 | -1.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 56 | Texans | 8 | 7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | -0.4 | 1.4 |
| 56 | 49ers | 7 | 8 | 0.7 | -2.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| 56 | Steelers | 8 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 53 | Giants | 8 | 7 | 1.9 | 5.5 | -3.6 | 1.8 |
| 52 | Dolphins | 7 | 8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 0.6 |
| 46 | Titans | 7 | 8 | 1.3 | 1.9 | -3.9 | -2.0 |
| 43 | Bears | 6 | 9 | -0.5 | -1.9 | -1.0 | -2.9 |
| 40 | Jaguars | 7 | 8 | 0.7 | -3.4 | -2.3 | -5.7 |
| 36 | Bills | 5 | 10 | -1.9 | -6.2 | 0.5 | -5.7 |
| 34 | Redskins | 4 | 11 | -3.0 | -6.3 | 0.6 | -5.7 |
| 30 | Buccaneers | 3 | 12 | -2.9 | -5.0 | -1.8 | -6.8 |
| 28 | Seahawks | 5 | 10 | -2.1 | -4.1 | -4.1 | -8.2 |
| 28 | Raiders | 5 | 10 | -1.5 | -8.5 | -2.1 | -10.6 |
| 28 | Browns | 4 | 11 | -2.6 | -5.9 | -2.5 | -8.4 |
| 20 | Chiefs | 3 | 12 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -5.9 | -10.1 |
| 11 | Lions | 2 | 13 | -4.5 | -4.9 | -7.9 | -12.7 |
| 8 | Rams | 1 | 14 | -5.4 | -10.8 | -4.6 | -15.5 |
Notes for the week:
- Well, the Colts remain on top, although their loss did hurt them. Their "AvgWin" of 7.7 is very high, and historically the team with the highest AvgWin at the end of the regular season ends up winning the Superbowl almost half the time. The team with the second highest AvgWin has won about 25% of the time. This has been one of the better indicators for me of post-season performance to regular season performance.
- The Patriots move up into the #2 spot thanks to the Saints loss.
- There was almost no impact on the Ravens from their loss, but they slipped a spot when the Chargers rose from 69 last week to 74 this week.
- The Steelers are still mired at 56, with a pretty much dead average result. They are the worst-rated 8-7 AFC team, and need a ton of help.
- The Jets are holding on to the best defensive rating, although the Ravens and Cowboys are very close behind.
- The Colts, Patriots, and Ravens all have strong balances between offense and defense, and historically those teams have done well.
- I think the Rams have locked up the bottom spot.
Current playoff seeds:
AFC
==================
1 : Colts
2 : Chargers
3 : Patriots
4 : Bengals
5 : Broncos
6 : Jets
7 : Ravens
8 : Texans
9 : Steelers
10 : Dolphins
11 : Jaguars
12 : Titans
13 : Raiders
14 : Bills
15 : Browns
16 : Chiefs
NFC
==================
1 : Saints
2 : Eagles
3 : Vikings
4 : Cardinals
5 : Packers
6 : Cowboys
7 : Giants
8 : Falcons
9 : Panthers
10 : 49ers
11 : Bears
12 : Seahawks
13 : Redskins
14 : Buccaneers
15 : Lions
16 : Rams
2009 Week sixteen prediction results
Predictions and Scores for 2009, Week 16:
Game: Chargers (12-3) @ Titans (7-8)
Predicted score: Chargers 21, Titans 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Titans by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Chargers 42, Titans 17
Actual winner: Chargers by 25
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
I don't understand why the Titans were favored here at all.
Game: Bills (5-10) @ Falcons (8-7)
Predicted score: Bills 16, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 5
Confidence of victory: 66.1%
Favorite: Falcons by 9
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 61.2%
Actual score: Bills 3, Falcons 31
Actual winner: Falcons by 28
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I think the Falcons covered.
Game: Chiefs (3-12) @ Bengals (10-5)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Bengals 24
Predicted winner: Bengals by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Bengals by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Chiefs 10, Bengals 17
Actual winner: Bengals by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Closer than it should have been, but at least the Bengals managed to beat the Chiefs to begin with.
Game: Raiders (5-10) @ Browns (4-11)
Predicted score: Raiders 17, Browns 20
Predicted winner: Browns by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Browns by 3
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 43.7%
Actual score: Raiders 9, Browns 23
Actual winner: Browns by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
The Browns waking up now that they have two offensive weapons.
Game: Seahawks (5-10) @ Packers (10-5)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Packers 24
Predicted winner: Packers by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.9%
Favorite: Packers by 14
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 67.7%
Actual score: Seahawks 10, Packers 48
Actual winner: Packers by 38
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Ouch, a much worse beating that I expected here.
Game: Texans (8-7) @ Dolphins (7-8)
Predicted score: Texans 20, Dolphins 23
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Dolphins by 1.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 58.0%
Actual score: Texans 27, Dolphins 20
Actual winner: Texans by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
This one stings...the Texans losing a game has been critical for helping the Steelers get in, and the Texans keep holding on. It's going to be up the Patriots to stop them tomorrow.
Game: Panthers (7-8) @ Giants (8-7)
Predicted score: Panthers 17, Giants 23
Predicted winner: Giants by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Giants by 8
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 56.1%
Actual score: Panthers 41, Giants 9
Actual winner: Panthers by 32
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
I just don't know what is going on with the Giants. Wildly varying their level of play. Dominating one week and being abused the next. It's very strange.
Game: Jaguars (7-8) @ Patriots (10-5)
Predicted score: Jaguars 16, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.9%
Favorite: Patriots by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 57.4%
Actual score: Jaguars 7, Patriots 35
Actual winner: Patriots by 28
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I hate rooting for the Patriots, but it's helping.
Game: Buccaneers (3-12) @ Saints (13-2)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 16, Saints 27
Predicted winner: Saints by 11
Confidence of victory: 79.1%
Favorite: Saints by 14
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 55.8%
Actual score: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17
Actual winner: Buccaneers by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Haha, well I doubt anyone saw this coming.
Game: Broncos (8-7) @ Eagles (11-4)
Predicted score: Broncos 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Eagles by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Actual score: Broncos 27, Eagles 30
Actual winner: Eagles by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
A pretty pleasing prediction here, and a little help from the Eagles to bring the Broncos to the level where the Steelers can beat them in a tiebreaker (in some situations).
Game: Ravens (8-7) @ Steelers (8-7)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Ravens 20, Steelers 23
Actual winner: Steelers by 3
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Stayin' alive...
Game: Rams (1-14) @ Cardinals (10-5)
Predicted score: Rams 14, Cardinals 24
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 10
Confidence of victory: 78.1%
Favorite: Cardinals by 15
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 61.5%
Actual score: Rams 10, Cardinals 31
Actual winner: Cardinals by 21
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
This is about what you'd expect.
Game: Lions (2-13) @ 49ers (7-8)
Predicted score: Lions 16, 49ers 24
Predicted winner: 49ers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: 49ers by 14
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Lions 6, 49ers 20
Actual winner: 49ers by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Lions still hoping the Rams might win a game and lose out on the #1 draft spot I guess!
Game: Jets (8-7) @ Colts (14-1)
Predicted score: Jets 14, Colts 21
Predicted winner: Colts by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.9%
Favorite: Colts by 4
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 56.6%
Actual score: Jets 29, Colts 15
Actual winner: Jets by 14
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Ouch. This one hurt the Steelers badly. The Jets now need to lose to another team playing for nothing.
Game: Cowboys (10-5) @ Redskins (4-11)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Redskins 17
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Cowboys by 7
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 69.6%
Actual score: Cowboys 17, Redskins 0
Actual winner: Cowboys by 17
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I was surprised by the tie prediction here, and rightfully so, I guess.
Game: Vikings (11-4) @ Bears (6-9)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Bears 20
Predicted winner: Vikings by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 67.5%
Actual score: Vikings 30, Bears 36
Actual winner: Bears by 6
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Definitely an upset, but not the craziest thing. The Vikings might be coming off the rails.
Correct winning predictions: 8-5
Correct bet predictions: 8-8
Not a terribly good week, but at least it wasn't below .500.
Game: Chargers (12-3) @ Titans (7-8)
Predicted score: Chargers 21, Titans 21
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Titans by 3
Bet recommendation: Chargers
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Chargers 42, Titans 17
Actual winner: Chargers by 25
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
I don't understand why the Titans were favored here at all.
Game: Bills (5-10) @ Falcons (8-7)
Predicted score: Bills 16, Falcons 21
Predicted winner: Falcons by 5
Confidence of victory: 66.1%
Favorite: Falcons by 9
Bet recommendation: Bills
Bet confidence: 61.2%
Actual score: Bills 3, Falcons 31
Actual winner: Falcons by 28
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I think the Falcons covered.
Game: Chiefs (3-12) @ Bengals (10-5)
Predicted score: Chiefs 16, Bengals 24
Predicted winner: Bengals by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: Bengals by 13.5
Bet recommendation: Chiefs
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Chiefs 10, Bengals 17
Actual winner: Bengals by 7
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Closer than it should have been, but at least the Bengals managed to beat the Chiefs to begin with.
Game: Raiders (5-10) @ Browns (4-11)
Predicted score: Raiders 17, Browns 20
Predicted winner: Browns by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Browns by 3
Bet recommendation: Raiders
Bet confidence: 43.7%
Actual score: Raiders 9, Browns 23
Actual winner: Browns by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
The Browns waking up now that they have two offensive weapons.
Game: Seahawks (5-10) @ Packers (10-5)
Predicted score: Seahawks 17, Packers 24
Predicted winner: Packers by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.9%
Favorite: Packers by 14
Bet recommendation: Seahawks
Bet confidence: 67.7%
Actual score: Seahawks 10, Packers 48
Actual winner: Packers by 38
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Ouch, a much worse beating that I expected here.
Game: Texans (8-7) @ Dolphins (7-8)
Predicted score: Texans 20, Dolphins 23
Predicted winner: Dolphins by 3
Confidence of victory: 60.2%
Favorite: Dolphins by 1.5
Bet recommendation: Dolphins
Bet confidence: 58.0%
Actual score: Texans 27, Dolphins 20
Actual winner: Texans by 7
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
This one stings...the Texans losing a game has been critical for helping the Steelers get in, and the Texans keep holding on. It's going to be up the Patriots to stop them tomorrow.
Game: Panthers (7-8) @ Giants (8-7)
Predicted score: Panthers 17, Giants 23
Predicted winner: Giants by 6
Confidence of victory: 69.7%
Favorite: Giants by 8
Bet recommendation: Panthers
Bet confidence: 56.1%
Actual score: Panthers 41, Giants 9
Actual winner: Panthers by 32
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
I just don't know what is going on with the Giants. Wildly varying their level of play. Dominating one week and being abused the next. It's very strange.
Game: Jaguars (7-8) @ Patriots (10-5)
Predicted score: Jaguars 16, Patriots 23
Predicted winner: Patriots by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.9%
Favorite: Patriots by 9.5
Bet recommendation: Jaguars
Bet confidence: 57.4%
Actual score: Jaguars 7, Patriots 35
Actual winner: Patriots by 28
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I hate rooting for the Patriots, but it's helping.
Game: Buccaneers (3-12) @ Saints (13-2)
Predicted score: Buccaneers 16, Saints 27
Predicted winner: Saints by 11
Confidence of victory: 79.1%
Favorite: Saints by 14
Bet recommendation: Buccaneers
Bet confidence: 55.8%
Actual score: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17
Actual winner: Buccaneers by 3
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Haha, well I doubt anyone saw this coming.
Game: Broncos (8-7) @ Eagles (11-4)
Predicted score: Broncos 17, Eagles 21
Predicted winner: Eagles by 4
Confidence of victory: 61.6%
Favorite: Eagles by 7
Bet recommendation: Broncos
Bet confidence: 58.2%
Actual score: Broncos 27, Eagles 30
Actual winner: Eagles by 3
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
A pretty pleasing prediction here, and a little help from the Eagles to bring the Broncos to the level where the Steelers can beat them in a tiebreaker (in some situations).
Game: Ravens (8-7) @ Steelers (8-7)
Predicted score: Ravens 20, Steelers 20
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Steelers by 3
Bet recommendation: Ravens
Bet confidence: 54.6%
Actual score: Ravens 20, Steelers 23
Actual winner: Steelers by 3
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Right
Stayin' alive...
Game: Rams (1-14) @ Cardinals (10-5)
Predicted score: Rams 14, Cardinals 24
Predicted winner: Cardinals by 10
Confidence of victory: 78.1%
Favorite: Cardinals by 15
Bet recommendation: Rams
Bet confidence: 61.5%
Actual score: Rams 10, Cardinals 31
Actual winner: Cardinals by 21
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Wrong
This is about what you'd expect.
Game: Lions (2-13) @ 49ers (7-8)
Predicted score: Lions 16, 49ers 24
Predicted winner: 49ers by 8
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Favorite: 49ers by 14
Bet recommendation: Lions
Bet confidence: 65.7%
Actual score: Lions 6, 49ers 20
Actual winner: 49ers by 14
Win prediction result: Right
Bet prediction result: Right
Lions still hoping the Rams might win a game and lose out on the #1 draft spot I guess!
Game: Jets (8-7) @ Colts (14-1)
Predicted score: Jets 14, Colts 21
Predicted winner: Colts by 7
Confidence of victory: 70.9%
Favorite: Colts by 4
Bet recommendation: Colts
Bet confidence: 56.6%
Actual score: Jets 29, Colts 15
Actual winner: Jets by 14
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Wrong
Ouch. This one hurt the Steelers badly. The Jets now need to lose to another team playing for nothing.
Game: Cowboys (10-5) @ Redskins (4-11)
Predicted score: Cowboys 17, Redskins 17
Predicted winner: TIE
Favorite: Cowboys by 7
Bet recommendation: Redskins
Bet confidence: 69.6%
Actual score: Cowboys 17, Redskins 0
Actual winner: Cowboys by 17
Win prediction result: N/A
Bet prediction result: Wrong
I was surprised by the tie prediction here, and rightfully so, I guess.
Game: Vikings (11-4) @ Bears (6-9)
Predicted score: Vikings 21, Bears 20
Predicted winner: Vikings by 1
Confidence of victory: 51.6%
Favorite: Vikings by 7
Bet recommendation: Bears
Bet confidence: 67.5%
Actual score: Vikings 30, Bears 36
Actual winner: Bears by 6
Win prediction result: Wrong
Bet prediction result: Right
Definitely an upset, but not the craziest thing. The Vikings might be coming off the rails.
Correct winning predictions: 8-5
Correct bet predictions: 8-8
Not a terribly good week, but at least it wasn't below .500.
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