2009 Week five Rankings

For more information about the table contents and what they mean, see this older post. I've added an "AvgComb" column which is just the AvgOff and AvgDef added together.

AverageRank	Team	Wins	Losses	AvgOff	AvgDef	AvgComb
1.7	Saints	4	0	11.2	5.8	17.0
3.3	Colts	5	0	4.8	6.4	11.2
4.7	Giants	5	0	6.7	1.6	8.3
5.7	Patriots	3	2	3.9	3.5	7.4
6.3	Broncos	5	0	-1.4	8.6	7.2
6.7	Vikings	5	0	5.5	-0.6	4.8
7.3	Falcons	3	1	4.3	4.2	8.5
7.3	Bengals	4	1	1.2	3.4	4.6
9.0	Jets	3	2	-1.3	6.2	4.9
9.7	49ers	3	2	2.1	2.0	4.0
10.0	Ravens	3	2	4.9	-0.6	4.3
10.3	Bears	3	1	2.1	2.1	4.2
10.3	Eagles	3	1	7.2	-1.3	5.9
10.7	Seahawks	2	3	1.4	4.1	5.5
11.7	Dolphins	2	3	3.2	1.6	4.7
11.7	Cowboys	3	2	3.5	-0.7	2.9
12.0	Cardinals	2	2	0.5	0.8	1.3
12.0	Packers	2	2	4.6	-2.6	2.1
12.0	Steelers	3	2	-2.0	2.2	0.2
14.0	Chargers	2	2	5.1	-4.8	0.3
18.0	Lions	1	4	2.6	-6.3	-3.7
19.3	Jaguars	2	3	-1.5	-3.1	-4.6
19.7	Panthers	1	3	-4.1	-1.9	-6.0
20.0	Browns	1	4	-6.4	-1.4	-7.8
20.3	Redskins	2	3	-11.4	0.7	-10.7
21.0	Texans	2	3	-0.8	-6.5	-7.3
22.3	Chiefs	0	5	-3.3	-2.9	-6.2
22.7	Bills	1	4	-6.2	-2.4	-8.7
23.3	Raiders	1	4	-10.2	-3.0	-13.2
24.0	Titans	0	5	-3.4	-5.3	-8.6
24.7	Buccaneers	0	5	-5.4	-4.7	-10.1
27.0	Rams	0	5	-11.9	-5.8	-17.7

Ok, so what've we got this week?

The Giants pushed their way four spots up the list with their performance, coupled with the performances of teams they've played. Now that we're getting a lot of interactions from the games that have played, every game can tweak the numbers for almost any other team.

The Patriots actually moved up the list, despite losing, and are bizarrely placed ahead of two 5-0 teams, including one that just beat them. That's purely on the strength of the opponents the two have played.

Unsurprisingly, the Niners and Jaguars plummeted after their blowout losses. The Steelers remain in the middle of the pack, and even a shellacking of the lowly Browns won't help them too much. The matchup in Denver in a few weeks is going to have a big effect on the Predictabot rankings, if not the AFC picture, I think.

We also still have the "extreme" records, with five undefeated teams and four winless teams. There's only been one season each with four 5-0 teams and four 0-5 teams, and the two were years apart. Wacky.

I ran some numbers on historical chances of making the playoffs with various records. Using data from every full 16-game season:

• 93% of teams starting 5-0 have made the playoffs
  
• 63% of teams starting 5-0 have appeared in the conference championship game
• 42% of teams starting 5-0 have appeared in the Super Bowl
• 21% of teams starting 5-0 have won the Super Bowl
  
• No 0-5 team has ever made the playoffs (Might as well see if Vince Young can hack it now)
  

Last year at this time, the top five teams were the Buccaneers, Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, and Redskins. The bottom five were the Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs, and Lions.

The Steelers are about where they were last year, although both the offense and defense are slightly (about a point) worse than they were last year.