2009 Week four

Predicted scores for 2009 week 4:

DET 16
CHI 27 (-10)

I don't think this is hard to believe.

CIN 23 (-5.5)
CLE 13

I suspect this should be predicted to be more of a blowout, and I suspect the Bengals carryover rating from last year is affecting this. This will be shifting to entirely based on this year's results in a couple of weeks, so that might see them being predicted stronger if they keep winning.

OAK 13
HOU 30 (-9.5)

I get a feeling this will be more like 20-6, Texans.

SEA 14
IND 26 (-9)

Seems fair.

TEN 21 (-3)
JAC 14

Well, for the Titan's sake let's hope they can pull out a win. From my data going back to 1970, only the '92 Chargers were 0-4 and ever made the playoffs. Of course, only five 0-3 teams ever made the playoffs (out of 185), the 98 Bills, the 95 Lions, the 92 Chargers, the 82 Bucs, and the 81 Jets.

NYG 30 (-8.5)
KAN 13

No argument here.

BAL 23
NWE 17 (-2)

This could be an interesting one. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in the past. While it's early, they currently have the third worst (out of 14) average defensive rating per game in their history. The offense, however, is currently the best it's been, and is substantially ahead of last year. Flacco!

TAM 19
WAS 14 (-7)

Hah, I sure can't agree with this, but I sure wouldn't take the Redskins with the points.

BUF 19 (-2)
MIA 19

Too close to call, it says. Well, knowing that Pennington is broken again, I'll go with Buffalo.

NYJ 10
NOR 38 (-7)

Surprising here, but again, partially due to including some of last year's rankings in the early part of a new season. I don't know what to expect in this game. It's an intriguing matchup of what I have as the top offense going against the top defense, and while I don't think it'll be a Superbowl preview. 133 out of 188 teams that were 3-0 made the playoffs, and fully 41 of them (21%) of them ended up in the Superbowl.

DAL 27 (-3)
DEN 19

Another interesting matchup of a pretty potent offense going against a solid defense, but personally I suspect Denver is going to end up on top somehow. Bastards.

STL 7
SFO 34 (-9.5)

The Niners look for revenge in a divisional matchup after a last-second loss. Even with the RB situation in San Francisco, I think this is a pretty safe bet.

SDG 24
PIT 17 (-6.5)

I'm really pretty surprised to see the Steelers favored here. I have to assume it's bettors going with the Superbowl winner and the lines being set appropriately. I know the Steelers can win, but if they keep doing what they've been doing, it's going to be ugly.

GNB 21
MIN 21 (-3.5)

Too close to call! 20-21 is basically the "average" score by an NFL team (20.41 to be exact!), so this is basically a "hands up in the air your guess is as good as mine" situation. Personally, I'm taking the Packers, who I think will manage to slightly outscore the Vikings.